Greenpointcrusader Tops Big Louisiana Derby Field

Greenpointcrusader will be tough in Saturday's Louisiana Derby in his second start as a 3-year-old. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
The 103rd running of the Grade 2, $1-million Louisiana Derby is the first of seven significant Kentucky Derby prep races offering 100 points to the winner along with a pretty nice check. Gun Runner won the local prep, the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes, five weeks ago and warrants a lot of respect but there are 10 others lined up, at least six of which have credentials to win.
Greenpointcrusader is the only horse in the field with a Grade 1 stakes win, that coming last fall in the Champagne Stakes. Considering he enters the Louisiana Derby off a runner-up finish behind division leader Mohaymen in the Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes, Greenpointcrusader has a big shot to succeed. The second through fifth finishers in the Risen Star all may be contenders as well. Risen Star runner-up Forevamo won the Jean Lafitte Stakes in October and can improve as he is making his third start of the year, while third-place finisher Mo Tom encountered significant traffic trouble with three-sixteenths of a mile to run and with a better trip could be up in time.
Candy My Boy led for the first three-quarters of a mile on fast fractions before fading to fourth and could be in front from the start again. Zapperini rallied from tenth to fifth and should appreciate the longer distance. Dazzling Gem is a perfect two-for-two in his career and could be up to the task. Tom's Ready finished second behind Mo Tom in the LeComte Stakes before a seventh-place finish in the Risen Star and hopes to rebound. LeComte third-place finisher Uncle Walter finished last in the Risen Star but showed ability before that. Battery and Conquest Windycity both enter the race off wins versus lesser but both come from powerful stables, those of Todd Pletcher and Mark Casse, respectively.
I've been a fan of Greenpointcrusader ever since I watched him debut last summer at Saratoga when missing by a neck. He won his next two races including the Champagne, going from an 85 Equibase Speed Figure to 95 then to 106, before a seventh-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall. Given two months off to mature, Greenpointcrusader came back against divisional leader Mohaymen and wasn't disgraced a bit when second in the Holy Bull Stakes at the end of January, earning a 101 figure. John Velazquez got familiar with the colt in the Holy Bull and rides him again. I expect Greenpointcrusader to improve significantly in his second start as a 3-year-old. As such, I think he will return to the form shown in the Champagne and making his mark in the division as the march toward the Kentucky Derby continues. Additionally, if there is any moisture in the track, he should love it as his six-length Champagne victory came on an off track.
Dazzling Gem is a live longshot in my opinion, opening at odds of 12-to-1. Although he's never run in a stakes race, Dazzling Gem not only is undefeated in two starts, both were around two turns, with a 96 speed figure earned in his debut in an 11-horse field followed up by a 98 figure in another 11-horse field at the first allowance level. Putting that in perspective, Gun Runner earned a 97 figure in his first level allowance win last fall two races before winning the Risen Star last month. Considering how 3-year-olds can improve from one race to the next at this time of year, if Dazzling Gem shows the same kind of improvement he has every right to post the upset in this year's Louisiana Derby.
GUN RUNNER

Gun Runner is a perfect three-for-three on fast tracks. He won the first two starts of his career, earning 83 and 97 figures then perhaps didn't care for the sloppy track last November in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes when tiring to fourth after making the lead with an eighth of a mile to go. Given nearly three months off to mature, Gun Runner made his sophomore debut a winning one in the Risen Star last month, earning a career-best and field-high 106 figure. Likely to run as well or better in his second start off the layoff and with the ground-saving rail, Gun Runner must be taken very seriously right back as a contender in the Louisiana Derby, and if his poor effort last fall in the slop was a fluke, even if the track comes up wet he still could win.
Candy My Boy, Mo Tom and Forevamo all must be considered as contenders in this race, at the least for minor awards that could help make us a profit on exacta and trifecta tickets played. Forevamo (105 last-race figure) rallied for second at high odds in the Risen Star and one race prior to that finished second behind lone frontrunner Candy My Boy, so can be expected to be passing many tiring horses late. Mo Tom (103 figure) routinely runs last or next to last early but closes furiously. In the Risen Star, although he was unlikely to catch winner Gun Runner, Mo Tom did get blocked and had to alter course with less than a quarter mile to go, missing second by a length and arguably might have finished second without the trouble. Candy My Boy (102 figure) led on much faster than average fractions in the race before tiring to fourth. There may be no other horse in the Louisiana Derby field that wants the lead and if he can slow down early he might be able to repeat his wire-to-wire win before that over the track or at least hang on for a better placing.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Battery (87), Conquest Windycity (86), Tom's Ready (96), Uncle Walter (94) and Zapperini (98). 
My selections:GreenpointcrusaderDazzling GemGun Runner
$1-million Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby
Saturday, Fair Grounds, Race 10, 6:12 p.m. ET
1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

Odds

1

Gun Runner

Florent Geroux

Steve Asmussen

Winchell Thoroughbreds and Three Chimneys Farm

3/1

2

Greenpointcrusader

John Velazquez

Dominick Schettino

St. Elias Stable, MeB Racing Stables LLC and Brooklyn Boyz Stables

7/2

3

Battery

Javier Castellano

Todd Pletcher

Harrell Ventures

10/1

4

Conquest Windycity

Joe Rocco Jr.

Mark Casse

Conquest Stables

15/1

5

Candy My Boy

Francisco Torres

Roger Brueggemann

Frank Mancari

15/1

6

Mo Tom

Corey Lanerie

Tom Amoss

G M B Racing

5/2

7

Tom's Ready

Brian Hernandez Jr.

Dallas Stewart

G M B Racing

15/1

8

Uncle Walter

Robby Albarado

Mike Maker

Ken and Sarah Ramsey

20/1

9

Dazzling Gem

Shaun Bridgmohan

Brad Cox

Steve Landers Racing

12/1

10

Zapperini

Julien  Leparoux

Greg Foley

Lloyd Madison Farms

20/1

11

Forevamo

Colby Hernandez

Al Stall Jr.

Brittlyn Stable

10/1