Unlocking Winners: Can Gun Runner Double Up in Louisiana Derby?

Gun Runner, above winning the Risen Star Stakes, is the second choice on the morning line for the Louisiana Derby behind Risen Star third-place finisher Mo Tom. Which horse is the better bet in the key Kentucky Derby prep race? (Photo By Amanda Hodges Weir/Hodges Photography)
The $1-million Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on Saturday is the first Kentucky Derby prep race to offer 100 qualification points to the winner, meaning that at long last, we’ve reached the homestretch of the Kentucky Derby trail!
The Grade 2 Louisiana Derby has drawn a high-quality field of 11 and promises to be a great race to handicap and bet — let’s get started!
It’s not every day that the morning-line favorite in a race is coming off a loss to the morning-line second choice, but such is the case in the Louisiana Derby. Mo Tom has been made the 5-2 favorite over 3-1 Gun Runner despite finishing behind Gun Runner in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds last month.
Of course, a strong case can be made for Mo Tom to turn the tables on Gun Runner. In the Risen Star, Mo Tom was rallying strongly when he had to check hard off the heels of a tiring runner. Despite losing all of his momentum, Mo Tom re-rallied strongly in the final eighth of a mile to finish third, beaten by just 1 ½ lengths.
If not for the traffic incident, I think Mo Tom might have won the race. With the benefit of an extra sixteenth of a mile in the Louisiana Derby, he might have a better chance to reel in the leaders this time around.
But while Mo Tom should run well in the Louisiana Derby, I’m actually confident that Gun Runner can maintain his advantage. For one thing, it’s worth noting that up until he had to check, Mo Tom had gotten a perfect trip in the Risen Star, saving valuable ground on both turns while settling far behind a fast pace.
MO TOM WINNING LECOMTE

Photo By Amanda Hodges Weir/Hodges Photography
Even if a similarly quick pace unfolds in the Louisiana Derby, I think there’s a strong possibility that Mo Tom will be kept outside of horses on Saturday to avoid another traffic issue, which could cause him to concede several lengths of ground compared with Gun Runner, who drew the rail in the Louisiana Derby.
Additionally, in the Risen Star Stakes, Gun Runner actually didn’t get the best of trips — he broke slowly and was in tight quarters early on before rallying up the rail to settle a couple of lengths behind a fast pace. He then moved strongly into the fast pace on the far turn, which might have been premature, but despite his early move to take the lead, Gun Runner stayed on well through the long Fair Grounds homestretch to prevail by a half-length over the late-running Forevamo, with Mo Tom another length behind.
Given that this was Gun Runner’s first start off a layoff, I thought it was an excellent performance, particularly since he might have moved too soon. Since the Risen Star, Gun Runner has continued to train very well, highlighted by a bullet five-eighths of a mile workout on March 14. I think he’s ready to take a step forward in the Louisiana Derby and is my selection to win.
Another horse that deserves a lot of respect is Greenpointcrusader, winner of the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes on a sloppy track last fall. His form on fast racetracks hasn’t been quite as impressive, but he did run well in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes on Jan. 30, adjusting his running style to help set a slow pace before staying on strongly in the homestretch to finish second behind current Kentucky Derby favorite Mohaymen. He’s coming off a bit of a layoff — he hasn’t raced since the Holy Bull — but he’s been breezing steadily since the Holy Bull and must be respected based on the company that he’s kept in his last three races. I think he has a strong chance to split Gun Runner and Mo Tom to finish in the exacta, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins.
GREENPOINTCRUSADER

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
The wildcard in the Louisiana Derby is Battery, a Bernardini colt trained by Todd Pletcher. After breaking his maiden by 3 ¼ lengths on Nov. 21 at Gulfstream Park West, Battery finished second to highly regarded Cherry Wine in a 1 1/16-mile Gulfstream allowance race then stretched out to 1 1/8 miles and won a similar race by two lengths after tracking modest early fractions.
The Louisiana Derby will be a big step up in class, but Battery strikes me as a steadily improving, talented colt with a big chance to finish in the top three. Additionally, you can never count out Pletcher in the Louisiana Derby. Since 2010, he’s won the race twice with Mission Impazible and Revolutionary, and Pletcher’s Intense Holiday and Stanford finished second in 2014 and 2015, respectively.
Forevamo, who came charging late to finish second in the Risen Star, should be finishing well again on Saturday. However, like Mo Tom he benefited from the fast pace that day, and even with the extra distance, he could find it tough to catch Gun Runner.
If you’re looking for a live longshot, Tom's Ready could be the one. Two starts back, he led past the eighth pole in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes before finishing second to Mo Tom. While he failed to fire when seventh in the Risen Star, he also got a very wide trip on a track that might have been favorable to horses racing on the inside. If you judge him from his previous form, he looks like a contender to hit the board at a nice price.
It’s also important to mention Dazzling Gem, an unbeaten son of Misremembered who has won two straight races at Oaklawn Park, including a 1 1/16-mile allowance race on Feb. 13. While he raced a bit greenly in the latter race, he seems to have a lot of talent and should be forwardly placed in a race that doesn’t have a lot of speed on paper. He’s already beaten some very nice horses, including Gray Sky, Madtap, and American Pioneer, and I’m excited to see how he performs in the Louisiana Derby. I think he has the potential to be a very good horse.
Twinspires.com Louisiana DerbySaturday, Fair Grounds, Race 10, 6:12 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

Odds

1

Gun Runner

Florent Geroux

Steve Asmussen

Winchell Thoroughbreds and Three Chimneys Farm

3/1

2

Greenpointcrusader

John Velazquez

Dominick Schettino

St. Elias Stable, MeB Racing Stables LLC and Brooklyn Boyz Stables

7/2

3

Battery

Javier Castellano

Todd Pletcher

Harrell Ventures

10/1

4

Conquest Windycity

Joe Rocco Jr.

Mark Casse

Conquest Stables

15/1

5

Candy My Boy

Francisco Torres

Roger Brueggemann

Frank Mancari

15/1

6

Mo Tom

Corey Lanerie

Tom Amoss

G M B Racing

5/2

7

Tom's Ready

Brian Hernandez Jr.

Dallas Stewart

G M B Racing

15/1

8

Uncle Walter

Robby Albarado

Mike Maker

Ken and Sarah Ramsey

20/1

9

Dazzling Gem

Shaun Bridgmohan

Brad Cox

Steve Landers Racing

12/1

10

Zapperini

Julien  Leparoux

Greg Foley

Lloyd Madison Farms

20/1

11

Forevamo

Colby Hernandez

Al Stall Jr.

Brittlyn Stable

10/1