Bram’s Take: A Chance for Redemption in Louisiana Derby

The Louisiana Derby will feature a rematch between Lecomte Stakes victor Mo Tom (left) and Risen Star Stakes winner Gun Runner (right). (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
Should all sore losers have to speak right after their losering is at its sorest? Whenever the day comes that either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump has to concede that they indeed won’t be the president of the United States, don’t you just feel like they have to say something?
Carolina Panthers head coach Ron Rivera said at the NFL owner’s meeting this week that he believe players who just lost the Super Bowl shouldn’t have to answer any media questions. It’s too emotional. It was an illogical but impassioned defense of his quarterback, Cam Newton, who spent the bulk of the season being criticized for how much celebrating he did during his team’s 15-1 regular season only to become scrooge when they lost the big one.
What Rivera is essentially saying here is that only winners need to be heard from. Maybe this is his way of “Making America GREAT Again!”
But in sports, the losers almost always get their shot at redemption. That’s what really is great about America. And that’s basically the premise of this weekend’s Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, in which six horses that lost to Gun Runner on this same track about a month ago look for their own version of redemption.
DON'T MISS THE 2016 LOUISIANA DERBY

There’s going to be a LOT of sore losers after this one at Fair Grounds. Good thing the French Quarter is right down the street.
Here’s the Field for the Louisiana Derby:
1. Gun Runner: He wins the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes against the majority of the field. And he gets the inside post. And he’s won 3 of 4 career races. And his speed rating was by far a career best last time out. So anyway, he’s going to be the sorest of losers if this doesn’t happen.
2. Greenpointcrusader: By far the most intriguing choice here. He didn’t run in the Risen Star. His last race was against Mohaymen at the end of January in Florida and it went OK. He only lost by 3 1/2 lengths. Based on the Mohaymen hype, that shouldn’t downgrade his ability to win here. Where I am most intrigued in him is a race from early October when he won a $500,000 stakes race on a sloppy track with times that would be better than decent with perfect conditions. This outsider might make everyone a sore loser.
3. Battery: He’s got the cool Todd Pletcher-Javier Castellano combo, but he’s never run in anything above a $75,000 allowance race. So, like Cupid a week ago, you’d have to just trust the connections and assume he’ll be a factor. Installed at 10-1 though tells me those who should know aren’t expecting him to be a serious threat.
4. Conquest Windycity: He’s competitive, which means I’d keep him around for exotic plays, but there seems to be too many other better options to call for a huge upset. In only one of his four races did he not close well, so if the pace is moderate, he could steal a spot on the board.
5. Candy My Boy: He’s a front-runner, which doesn’t bode well against this field, especially with Gun Runner starting on the inside. His last time out he tried to go wire to wire from post-position 11, got caught early in the stretch and then faded badly. This race is longer. No thanks.
6. Mo Tom: This guy needs a clean ride so we can all see what he is actually capable of. In the Risen Star, he finished third but he was checked sharply. So, he went from 16 lengths back to hitting the board. The race prior, he hit the gate and got bumped early but still won by 2 1/4 lengths. Can I assume he’ll have a little better luck this time? If so, I think this is my guy.
MO TOM WINNING LECOMTE

Photo by Lou Hodges Jr./Hodges Photography
7. Tom's Ready: He’s quite experienced having run in five stakes races already, but the results suggest he shouldn’t be in a sixth. He’s hard to figure in terms of whether he could be a factor with as many complete duds as mildly surprising late surges. I’m leaning toward him getting left behind.
8. Uncle Walter: This one needs a complete do over after “no showing” last month in the Risen Star. So, if you think it was just one of those crazy days, then you’ll get an awesome price of 20-1 or higher. I like that a lot. But in his last race where he didn’t lose by 41-plus lengths, he did face Mo Tom and Tom’s Ready and finished third. And, I already told you I’m not so much into Tom’s Ready. So maybe the odds are right where they belong.
9. Dazzling Gem: He’s raced twice; he’s won both. Neither were stakes races. What am I supposed to do with this information? Trainer Brad Cox doesn’t have a Todd Pletcher-like reputation. Shaun Bridgmohan isn’t a Desormeaux. What do I do with this? I pray he doesn’t win, that’s what I do.
10. Zapperini: He took his shot in the Risen Star and got zapperini’d. I expect nothing to be different this weekend.
11. Forevamo: So he made the Risen Star pay a nice price, coming in second despite the 40-1 odds. It was the first time the line was off on him. In the past when he was favorite, he came through, and when he wasn’t, he didn’t. Here’s the better question: can he really do better then his last race? I doubt that. But can you drop him out of any exotic bet? Nope.
The Pick: The sore loser will be: Gun Runner. While six of the last 10 Risen Star winners have gone on to take the Louisiana Derby as well, I think he has run into too much competition here, so I’m just playing the odds that he isn’t THAT good. As for the winner, I am torn: if Mo Tom gets a clean ride, I think he pulls it off and Gayle and Tom Benson do that little umbrella dance at the Fair Grounds. If he doesn’t, I think Greenpointcrusader steals it. Maybe he’ll get his second shot at Mohaymen after all, and then we can find out who the real sore loser is.
The Full Milty: Trifecta Part Wheel - 2,6 with 1,2,6,9,11 with 1,2,6,7,9,11
$1-million Twinspires.com Louisiana DerbySaturday, Fair Grounds, Race 10, 6:12 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

Odds

1

Gun Runner

Florent Geroux

Steve Asmussen

Winchell Thoroughbreds and Three Chimneys Farm

3/1

2

Greenpointcrusader

John Velazquez

Dominick Schettino

St. Elias Stable, MeB Racing Stables LLC and Brooklyn Boyz Stables

7/2

3

Battery

Javier Castellano

Todd Pletcher

Harrell Ventures

10/1

4

Conquest Windycity

Joe Rocco Jr.

Mark Casse

Conquest Stables

15/1

5

Candy My Boy

Francisco Torres

Roger Brueggemann

Frank Mancari

15/1

6

Mo Tom

Corey Lanerie

Tom Amoss

G M B Racing

5/2

7

Tom's Ready

Brian Hernandez Jr.

Dallas Stewart

G M B Racing

15/1

8

Uncle Walter

Robby Albarado

Mike Maker

Ken and Sarah Ramsey

20/1

9

Dazzling Gem

Shaun Bridgmohan

Brad Cox

Steve Landers Racing

12/1

10

Zapperini

Julien  Leparoux

Greg Foley

Lloyd Madison Farms

20/1

11

Forevamo

Colby Hernandez

Al Stall Jr.

Brittlyn Stable

10/1