Dan’s Double: Weekend Winners for March 26-27

When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Dan Tordjman, America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent, is one of the brightest young minds in the game.
Each week, Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup.
Come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.
Saturday, March 26, Race 10, Fair Grounds (Grade 2 Louisiana Derby)
#6 Mo Tom (5/2): My level of confidence in this horse is higher than its been for any horse in any race during the Derby prep season thus far. There’s a wide range of variables that make Mo Tom look nearly unbeatable in this spot. Coming off of his impressive win in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes, backers might’ve been disappointed by his third place finish in the Grade 2 Risen Star. However, his Risen Star effort might’ve actually been better than his race in the Lecomte. He somehow managed to overcome a tired horse backing into him in deep stretch (which cost him ground and stopped his momentum) and still rallied up to finish within a length and half of Gun Runner. He then galloped out well past Gun Runner and second place finisher Forevamo. The added sixteenth of a mile to 1 1/8th here in the Louisiana Derby should only enhance Mo Tom’s chances.
If you’re looking for prices to spice up your exotic bets, I kind of like his stablemate #7 Tom’s Ready. You can forgive his race in the Risen Star, in which he was positioned much too close to a scorching pace and far too wide through the early portion of the race to ever really factor late. If you go back to the Lecomte and his neck loss in allowance company three races back, he fits on numbers. He looks like he should also have enough kick late if used wisely earlier on this time. Two other quick notes: I think #1 Gun Runner takes a major step back here. He was slowing down late in the Risen Star, just like he did in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club - I don’t think the mile and an eighth is going to do him any favors. Second, don’t toss #5 Candy My Boy. He’s lone speed and regains the services of Francisco Torres, who has previously settled him down up front en route to victory over the course in allowance company.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$2 exacta 6 with 2,5,7,11 ($8)
$1 exacta 5,7 with 6 ($2)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$1 trifecta box 5,6,7 ($6)
$2 exacta 6 with 2,5,7,9,11 ($10)
$1 exacta 2,5,7,9,11 with 6 ($5)
$1 exacta 6,7 with 2,6,7 ($4)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$1 trifecta box 5,6,7,11 ($24)
$2 exacta 6 with 2,5,7,9,11 ($10)
$1 exacta 2,5,7,9,11 with 6 ($5)
$.10 superfecta 6 with 2,5,9 with 2,5,7,9,11 with ALL ($9.60)
Sunday, March 27, Race 7, Fair Grounds
#5 Edeline (20-1): Let’s stick with the Fair Grounds for the Sunday play, which happens to be a bit of a price. While she might not jump off the program, Edeline has the looks of an improving filly who might run into an advantageous pace scenario in this race. She looked like a different horse last out when trying the turf for the first time for trainer Michelle Lovell. Even though she didn't win (she was beaten two lengths by returning foe #11 Indypendent Deputy), it was a strong showing in a race where she’d encountered quite a bit of trip trouble. Connections show a lot of confidence moving her up the class ladder in this $50,000 optional claiming (allowance) race out of that previous race in which she finished fourth when in for a $25,000 tag. Lovell scores 23 percent second off the layoff and the price will be right with this one.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$2 win, place and show on #5 Edeline ($6)
$1 exacta 5,11 with 5,6,11 ($4)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$1 exacta box 3,5,6,11,14 ($20)
$2 win and show on #5 Edeline ($4)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$1 exacta key box 5 with all ($26)
$.50 trifecta 5,11 with 3,5,6,11 with 3,5,6,7,8,9,11,12,13,14 ($24)
ROI Year to date: $1,660.60 wagered/$2,017.50 returned