Tip of the Week: Riding the Hot Horse

Photo by Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing
It’s not unusual for a horse to turn in a peak effort.
It’s what happens afterwards where you’ll find a gray area.
On some occasions, a big effort could be so strenuous that a horse reacts negatively to it in its next start and turns in a weaker performance.
It’s a phenomenon commonly referred to as a “bounce.”
Other times, that strong performance is a sign of a horse entering an improved form cycle and it can lead to a similar or even better effort in its next race.
To illustrate this, let’s take a look at Keep Me Grounded.
After winning his career debut by three lengths in a $40,000 maiden claimer on Feb. 11, 2015 and finishing second in his first race against winners, Keep Me Grounded went into a tailspin. He finished sixth, eighth and then sixth in his next three starts.
Then trainer Jason Servis dropped Keep Me Grounded to the lowest claiming level of his career, a $10,000 claimer for horses who had never won two races on Sept. 13 at Monmouth Park. The result was a decisive 4 ¼-length victory while earning the best speed figure of his career.
Off that race, it was quite reasonable to believe Keep Me Grounded might fall victim to the dreaded “bounce” in his next start. Instead he turned in an even better effort.
Running in a $6,250 claimer on Dec. 9 at Gulfstream Park – restricted to horses who had not won three races - he romped by 7 ¼ lengths while posting an even higher speed figure.
That staccato sound you heard in the background after that race was the “bounce” bouncing off into the sunset.
While one might assume Keep Me Grounded would “bounce” after two stellar efforts, back-to-back gems are better viewed as a sign of a horse on an upswing and that a third and possibly a fourth straight peak performance could be in the works.
At some point, horses like Keep Me Grounded will hit a wall and turn in a sub-par race, but until that happens why not ride a hot horse for another race or two?
After that second-straight career-best effort, Servis gave Keep Me Grounded another rest of approximately three months and entered him in the first race on March 16 at Gulfstream Park – this time for a $12,500 claiming tag with no restrictions.
Though Keep Me Grounded was facing a tougher test, there were several signs that should have brought out confidence in handicappers. He was getting a similar amount of rest as in his last victory. The higher claiming tag illustrated that his connections believed their horse was still in top form. And after brushing aside the notion of a “bounce” in his last race, why not ride the winning streak?
Keep Me Grounded’s morning-line odds of 4-1 were another sign of how well he fit among his new and more formidable competition.
At post time, Keep Me Grounded’s odds rose a bit to 5-1, which proved to be a bargain.
Once again the 4-year-old followed up one strong effort with another powerful effort as he kicked into top gear in the stretch and notched a half-length victory, paying $12.60 for a $2 win ticket.
THE LESSON: When a horse turns in a career-best effort, then follows that up with an even better performance, follow along until he or she finally takes a backward step.