Tip of the Week: Looking to the Derby in Preakness

Photo by Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing
If you’re a handicapper looking for satisfaction on the Triple Crown trail, there’s no better place to stop than Baltimore for the Preakness – and it has nothing to do with crab cakes or an Orioles game.
The middle leg of the series usually offers little in the way of surprises and this year’s 139th edition fell rather neatly into place.
There are two keys to success in the Preakness, and this year's winner California Chrome fit both of those profiles as a favorite and a horse who ran in the Kentucky Derby.
As perplexing as the Derby can be for handicappers, the Preakness has far less mystery attached to it.
Favorites have won 11 of the last 23 runnings of the Preakness for an abnormally high batting average of .478.
Even more helpful, though, is simply focusing on the horses who ran in the Kentucky Derby. In spite of the new faces in the race and the short rest, horses exiting the Derby have dominated the Preakness. California Chrome’s triumph made it 28 times out of the last 31 runnings that a Derby horse won the middle jewel of the Triple Crown.
Even with just three Derby horses in the Preakness, they comprised the exacta with Derby winner California Chrome registering an encore win in Baltimore and Ride On Curlin, who was seventh in the Derby, finishing second.
Beyond that, this year marked the fourth straight year Derby horses have run 1-2 in the Preakness. Last year, the first five finishers at Pimlico were Derby horses and in 2012 they ran 1-2-3.
So next year, when the Preakness rolls around and you start to peruse the past performances, save yourself a headache. Focus on the Derby horses, especially if one of them is the favorite.
The payoff may not be as grand as the one in the Derby, but it beats ripping up worthless mutuel tickets.
THE LESSON: Year in and year out, Kentucky Derby runners and favorites are the horses to watch in the Preakness.