Derby Trail: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down

Japan-based Lani is headed over for the Kentucky Derby after his win in the UAE Derby. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire unless otherwise noted)
This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands are not quite as strong as they previously were. For this week’s edition, the focus is the impact of the Louisiana Derby and the United Arab Emirates Derby, both on March 26, on the Kentucky Derby picture.
ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
HEATING UP

Lani

Anyone who tells you they know how United Arab Emirates Derby winner Lani will run in the Kentucky Derby is a liar. It’s almost impossible to predict how a horse coming to the United States from Dubai will react to the travel, much less one whose road to the Kentucky started in Japan in February. UAE Derby winners do not have a strong track record in the Kentucky Derby — Master of Hounds, fifth in 2011, is the best finish by a UAE Derby victor — but Lani might be a bit different. He held his own against quality competition on dirt in Japan, while many of the other UAE Derby invaders were primarily synthetic/turf horses. He’s also a Kentucky-bred with a dirt (and exceptionally classy) pedigree: he’s by two-time leading U.S. sire Tapit out of an elite Japanese racemare named Heavenly Romance, by 1989 Kentucky Derby-Preakness winner Sunday Silence. His two losses from five starts on dirt both came on muddy racetracks, so provided he gets a dry track, I think he has a chance to run big. He won’t be my win pick, but with only a few 3-year-old from this crop really dazzling, I think he has a decent shot to finish in the top three. He beat a very talented filly in Polar River in Dubai and I keep going back to that pedigree, it’s a hell of a pedigree.
Tom’s Ready

I’m not riding the Tom’s Ready bandwagon by any stretch, but he did surprise me by finishing second in the Louisiana Derby, and his 44 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard guarantee him a place in the starting gate for the first jewel of the Triple Crown. With only one win in nine starts, it would be tough to back Tom’s Ready to win in the Kentucky Derby, but he has four second-place finishes to his credit and a trainer who knows how to get horses ready for the big one. Dallas Stewart finished second in the Kentucky Derby in 2013 with Golden Soul and in 2014 with Commanding Curve and he’s finished second twice in the Preakness, including last year with Tale of Verve. Tom’s Ready has some ground to make up from a speed-figure perspective, but you could do worse rounding out exacta or trifecta tickets with a closer from Stewart’s barn at what figures to be a nice price.
Gun Runner

Photo by Lou Hodges
He’s by far my favorite of the three 3-year-olds on the heating up list, but the reality is he didn’t improve his stock as much because I already had him securely in my top 10. He’s now in my top five. I though he looked really strong in the Louisiana Derby stretch when powering away to win by 4 ½ lengths. Regardless of favored Mo Tom’s trouble in the stretch, he wasn’t beating Gun Runner in the Louisiana Derby. I though he might bounce off a career-best 106 Equibase Speed Figure for winning the Risen Star Stakes in February, but with a 105 for the Louisiana Derby, he essentially paired his top figure. With six weeks of rest entering the Kentucky Derby, Gun Runner has a great chance to take another step forward. With a fantastic pedigree for 1 ¼ miles, as long as the rain stays away on Derby day, he’ll be in the top three. 

COOLING DOWN

Greenpointcrusader

I expected much better than his seventh-place finish in the Louisiana Derby, especially after a promising 3-year-old debut in which he finished second, beaten by 3 ½ lengths, to the unbeaten and extremely swift Mohaymen. This Bernardini colt has a great pedigree and the ability to run fast, but he’s just way to volatile for me and I can’t support a horse coming into the Derby off a race as bad as his Louisiana Derby. Could he turn it around? Sure, but the only thing that might coax a few bucks from my pocket to lay on his back is a sloppy track on Derby day.
Frank Conversation

I know there were quite a few people who thought Frank Conversation was a synthetic-surface mirage on this year’s Kentucky Derby trail, but I really thought he was better than he was given credit for. Sure, his best races came on synthetic surfaces or grass, but I was encouraged by back-to-back stakes wins that earned 105 Equibase Speed Figures. So his dismal, last-of-seven finish in the United Arab Emirates Derby came as a surprise to me. I’m willing to forgive a dud after traveling 8,300 miles or so for a race, but I think the UAE Derby takes him completely out of the picture for the Triple Crown.
Forevamo

His runner-up finish in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 20 was a major step in the right direction, but Forevamo didn’t follow with another stellar effort in the Louisiana Derby. He had a very wide in the Louisiana Derby, but he looked like a real threat to win entering the stretch, just didn’t have enough fuel in the tank and flattened out. Perhaps, Forevamo reacted badly to a career-best performance in the Risen Star Stakes, which was a 12-point jump from his previous career-best Equibase Speed Figure. He’ll have six weeks to regain his top form, but now he doesn’t just need to get back to his best, he also needs to take a significant step forward from his best. That’s a lot to ask.

Racing Terms
Allowance race – A race for which the racing secretary drafts certain conditions to determine weights to be carried based on the horse’s age, sex and/or past performance.
Also-eligible – A horse officially entered for a race, but not permitted to start unless the field is reduced by scratches below a specified number.
Apprentice – A rider who has not ridden a certain number of winners within a specified period of time. Also known as a “bug,” from the asterisk used to denote the weight allowance such riders receive.
Blinkers – A cup-shaped device that limits a horse’s vision. Blinkers, often used to try to improve a horse’s focus, come in a variety of sizes and shapes to allow as little or as much vision as the trainer feels is necessary.
Bullet – The fastest workout of the day at a track at a particular distance.
Claiming race – A race in which each horse entered is eligible to be purchased at a set price.
Closer – A horse that runs best in the latter part of the race, coming from off the pace.
Connections – Persons identified with a horse, such as owner, trainer, jockey and stable employees.
Disqualification – Change in order of finish by stewards for an infraction of the rules.
Dam – The mother of a horse.
Entry – Two or more horses with common ownership that are paired as a single betting unit in one race.
Front-runner – A horse whose running style is to attempt to get on or near the lead at the start of the race and to continue there as long as possible.
Furlong – An eighth of a mile.
Graded race – A non-restricted race with added money or guaranteed purse value of $100,000 or more which has been run at least twice under similar conditions and on the same surface and has been assigned graded status for the year contested by the American Graded Stakes Committee.
Handicap – This race type refers to a race where the weights are assigned by the track’s racing secretary or handicapper based upon past performances.
Length – A measurement approximating the length of a horse, used to denote distance between horses in a race.
Off track – A track that has a wet surface and isn’t labeled as “fast”.
Pacesetter – The horse that is running in front (on the lead).
Past performances – A horse’s racing record, earnings, bloodlines and other data, presented in composite form.
Prep – A workout (or race) used to prepare a horse for a future engagement.
Post Parade – Horses going from paddock to starting gate past the stands. The post parade provides spectators with a chance to get a final look at the horse before the race.
Post Position – Position of stall in starting gate from which a horse begins a race.
Rabbit – A speed horse running as an entry with another, usually a come-from-behind horse. The rabbit is expected to set a fast pace to help the chances of its stablemate.
Rank – A horse that refuses to settle under a jockey’s handling in a race, running in a headstrong manner without respect to pace.
Scratch – To be taken out of a race before it starts.
Silks – Jacket and cap worn by jockeys.
Sire – Father of a foal.
Stakes – A race for which the owner usually must pay a fee to run a horse. The fees can be for nominating, maintaining eligibility, entering and starting, to which the track adds more money to make up the total purse. Some stakes races are by invitation and require no payment or fee.