Derby Trail: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down (Tambien en Español)

Japan-based Lani is headed over for the Kentucky Derby after his win in the UAE Derby. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire unless otherwise noted)
This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands are not quite as strong as they previously were. For this week’s edition, the focus is the impact of the Louisiana Derby and the United Arab Emirates Derby, both on March 26, on the Kentucky Derby picture.
ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
HEATING UP

1. Lani

Anyone who tells you they know how United Arab Emirates Derby winner Lani will run in the Kentucky Derby is a liar. It’s almost impossible to predict how a horse coming to the United States from Dubai will react to the travel, much less one whose road to the Kentucky started in Japan in February. UAE Derby winners do not have a strong track record in the Kentucky Derby — Master of Hounds, fifth in 2011, is the best finish by a UAE Derby victor — but Lani might be a bit different. He held his own against quality competition on dirt in Japan, while many of the other UAE Derby invaders were primarily synthetic/turf horses. He’s also a Kentucky-bred with a dirt (and exceptionally classy) pedigree: he’s by two-time leading U.S. sire Tapit out of an elite Japanese racemare named Heavenly Romance, by 1989 Kentucky Derby-Preakness winner Sunday Silence. His two losses from five starts on dirt both came on muddy racetracks, so provided he gets a dry track, I think he has a chance to run big. He won’t be my win pick, but with only a few 3-year-old from this crop really dazzling, I think he has a decent shot to finish in the top three. He beat a very talented filly in Polar River in Dubai and I keep going back to that pedigree, it’s a hell of a pedigree.
2. Tom’s Ready

I’m not riding the Tom’s Ready bandwagon by any stretch, but he did surprise me by finishing second in the Louisiana Derby, and his 44 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard guarantee him a place in the starting gate for the first jewel of the Triple Crown. With only one win in nine starts, it would be tough to back Tom’s Ready to win in the Kentucky Derby, but he has four second-place finishes to his credit and a trainer who knows how to get horses ready for the big one. Dallas Stewart finished second in the Kentucky Derby in 2013 with Golden Soul and in 2014 with Commanding Curve and he’s finished second twice in the Preakness, including last year with Tale of Verve. Tom’s Ready has some ground to make up from a speed-figure perspective, but you could do worse rounding out exacta or trifecta tickets with a closer from Stewart’s barn at what figures to be a nice price.
3. Gun Runner

Photo by Lou Hodges
He’s by far my favorite of the three 3-year-olds on the heating up list, but the reality is he didn’t improve his stock as much because I already had him securely in my top 10. He’s now in my top five. I though he looked really strong in the Louisiana Derby stretch when powering away to win by 4 ½ lengths. Regardless of favored Mo Tom’s trouble in the stretch, he wasn’t beating Gun Runner in the Louisiana Derby. I though he might bounce off a career-best 106 Equibase Speed Figure for winning the Risen Star Stakes in February, but with a 105 for the Louisiana Derby, he essentially paired his top figure. With six weeks of rest entering the Kentucky Derby, Gun Runner has a great chance to take another step forward. With a fantastic pedigree for 1 ¼ miles, as long as the rain stays away on Derby day, he’ll be in the top three. 

COOLING DOWN

1. Greenpointcrusader

I expected much better than his seventh-place finish in the Louisiana Derby, especially after a promising 3-year-old debut in which he finished second, beaten by 3 ½ lengths, to the unbeaten and extremely swift Mohaymen. This Bernardini colt has a great pedigree and the ability to run fast, but he’s just way to volatile for me and I can’t support a horse coming into the Derby off a race as bad as his Louisiana Derby. Could he turn it around? Sure, but the only thing that might coax a few bucks from my pocket to lay on his back is a sloppy track on Derby day.
2. Frank Conversation

I know there were quite a few people who thought Frank Conversation was a synthetic-surface mirage on this year’s Kentucky Derby trail, but I really thought he was better than he was given credit for. Sure, his best races came on synthetic surfaces or grass, but I was encouraged by back-to-back stakes wins that earned 105 Equibase Speed Figures. So his dismal, last-of-seven finish in the United Arab Emirates Derby came as a surprise to me. I’m willing to forgive a dud after traveling 8,300 miles or so for a race, but I think the UAE Derby takes him completely out of the picture for the Triple Crown.
3. Forevamo

His runner-up finish in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 20 was a major step in the right direction, but Forevamo didn’t follow with another stellar effort in the Louisiana Derby. He had a very wide in the Louisiana Derby, but he looked like a real threat to win entering the stretch, just didn’t have enough fuel in the tank and flattened out. Perhaps, Forevamo reacted badly to a career-best performance in the Risen Star Stakes, which was a 12-point jump from his previous career-best Equibase Speed Figure. He’ll have six weeks to regain his top form, but now he doesn’t just need to get back to his best, he also needs to take a significant step forward from his best. That’s a lot to ask.

(Tambien en Español)
Camino al Derby: Tres Calentándose, Tres Enfriándose

Lani, establecido en Japón,  está dirigiéndose hacia el Kentucky Derby después de su triunfo en el UAE Derby. (Fotos de Eclipse Sportswire a menos se indique lo contrario)
Este artículo provee una breve mirada a tres caballos que están tomando calor en su camino a la Triple Corona y a tres caballos cuyas chances para el Kentucky Derby Presentado por Yum! Brands ya no son tan fuertes como previamente lo eran. Para la edición de esta semana, la atención se concentra en el impacto del Louisiana Derby y del United Arab Emirates Derby, ambos del 26 de Marzo, en la fotografía del Kentucky Derby

CALENTÁNDOSE

1. Lani

Cualquiera que diga que sabe cómo va a correr Lani, el ganador del United Arab Emirates Derby, en el Kentucky Derby, es un mentiroso. Es casi imposible predecir cómo un caballo que viene a los Estados Unidos desde Dubai reaccionará al viaje, y mucho menos uno cuyo camino a Kentucky empezó en Japón en Febrero. Los ganadores del UAE Derby no tienen un buen récord en el Kentucky Derby — Master of Hounds, quinto en el 2011, es la mejor llegada para un vencedor del UAE Derby— pero Lani podría ser un poco diferente. Hizo lo suyo en contra de calificados competidores en la arena de Japón, en tanto que los otros ganadores del UAE Derby fueron principalmente caballos de pista sintética/césped. También tiene él una crianza en Kentucky con un pedigrí de arena (de excepcional categoría): es hijo del dos veces líder en sementales en U.S., Tapit, en madre perteneciente a la élite japonesa de la crianza, de nombre Heavenly Romance, hija del ganador del 1989 Kentucky Derby-Preakness, Sunday Silence. Sus dos fracasos de cinco salidas en arena llegaron ambos en hipódromos de pista fangosa, lo que prueba que le gusta la superficie seca, y pienso que tiene opción de correr en gran forma. No será mi pronóstico a ganador, pero con sólo unos cuantos tres añales de esta camada realmente deslumbrantes, creo que tiene una decente opción de finalizar entre los tres primeros. Derrotó a una potranca muy talentosa como Polar River en Dubai y me mantengo enganchado a ese pedigrí, ¡Es todo un pedigrí!
2. Tom’s Ready

No me estoy subiendo al carro de Tom’s Ready a la ligera, sino que en verdad él me sorprendió finalizando segundo en el Louisiana Derby, y sus 44 puntos en el pizarrón del Camino al Kentucky Derby  le garantizan un lugar en el partidor eléctrico de la primera joya de la Triple Corona. Con sólo una victoria en nueve salidas, sería muy difícil respaldar a Tom’s Ready para ganar en el Kentucky Derby, pero tiene cuatro segundos puestos en su haber y un entrenador que sabe cómo tener caballos listos para grandes cosas. Dallas Stewart llegó segundo en el Kentucky Derby del 2013 con Golden Soul y en el 2014 con Commanding Curve y ha llegado segundo dos veces en el Preakness, incluido el del último año con Tale of Verve. Tom’s Ready tiene todavía un camino por recorrer en términos de figuras de velocidad, pero podrías lamentarlo si no estás rondando los boletos de la exacta y las trifectas con un atropellador  de la caballeriza de Stewart, ya que parece que va a estar pagando muy buen precio.
3. Gun Runner

Photo by Lou Hodges
De lejos es mi favorito de los tres añales en la lista de los que andan calentándose, pero la realidad es que él no ha mejorado mucho su valor a causa de que yo ya lo tenía considerado entre mis mejores 10. Ahora él está entre mis mejores cinco. Pensé que iba a verse muy poderoso en la recta final del Louisiana Derby cuando avanzó con fuerza para ganar por 4 ½ cuerpos. A pesar de los problemas del favorito Mo Tom’s en la recta, él no hubiese vencido a Gun Runner en el Louisiana Derby. Yo creía que podía no repetir la mejor figura de su campaña, un 106 Equibase de Velocidad cuando ganó el Risen Star Stakes en Febrero, pero con un 105 en el Louisiana Derby, en esencia él emparejó su máxima figura. Con seis semanas de descanso antes del Kentucky Derby, Gun Runner tiene una gran chance de dar un nuevo paso hacia adelante. Con un pedigrí fantástico para 1 y ¼ de milla, y en tanto la lluvia esté lejos el día del Derby, él estará entre los primeros tres. 

ENFRIÁNDOSE

1. Greenpointcrusader

Esperaba mucho más que su séptimo puesto en el Louisiana Derby, especialmente luego de su promisor debut como tres añero en el cual llegó segundo, batido a 3 ½ cuerpos, del invicto y extremadamente rápido Mohaymen. Este potro por Bernardini tiene un gran pedigrí y la capacidad de correr rápido, pero es un tanto volátil para mí y no puedo respaldar a un caballo llegando al Derby luego de una carrera tan mala como su Louisiana Derby. ¿Podría él rehabilitarse? Claro, pero la única cosa que podría persuadirme de poner unos cuantos dólares desde mi bolsillo a su montura sería una pista barrosa en el día del Derby.
2. Frank Conversation

Yo sé que hubo unas cuantas personas que pensaban que Frank Conversation era un mirage en la superficie sintética en el camino al Kentucky Derby de este año, pero yo realmente pensaba  que él era mejor de lo que algunos pensaban. Cierto, sus mejores carreras fueron en superficies sintéticas o en el césped, pero yo estaba entusiasmado por triunfos consecutivos en clásicos que le reportaron figuras de velocidad Equibase de 105. Así que su decepcionante, último-de-siete en el United Arab Emirates Derby llegó como una sorpresa para mí. Estoy dispuesto a perdonar un fracaso después de viajar 8,300 millas más o menos para una carrera, pero creo que el UAE Derby lo sacó completamente fuera de la fotografía de la Triple Corona.
3. Forevamo

Su placé en el Grado 2 Risen Star Stakes del 20 de Febrero fue un paso decisivo en la dirección correcta, pero Forevamo no continuó con otro esfuerzo estelar en el Louisiana Derby. Tuvo que correr muy abierto en el Louisiana Derby, pero luciendo como una real amenaza para ganar entrando a la recta, simplemente no tuvo suficiente gas en el tanque y decayó. Tal vez, Forevamo reaccionó malamente a la mejor actuación de su campaña en el Risen Star Stakes, el cual representó un salto de 12-puntos respecto a su previa mejor figura Equibase de su campaña. Tendrá seis semanas para recuperar su mejor forma, pero ahora él no solamente necesita volver al mejor de sus estados, también necesita tomar un paso adelante desde lo mejor que había hecho. Eso es pedir demasiado.

Racing Terms
Allowance race – A race for which the racing secretary drafts certain conditions to determine weights to be carried based on the horse’s age, sex and/or past performance.
Also-eligible – A horse officially entered for a race, but not permitted to start unless the field is reduced by scratches below a specified number.
Apprentice – A rider who has not ridden a certain number of winners within a specified period of time. Also known as a “bug,” from the asterisk used to denote the weight allowance such riders receive.
Blinkers – A cup-shaped device that limits a horse’s vision. Blinkers, often used to try to improve a horse’s focus, come in a variety of sizes and shapes to allow as little or as much vision as the trainer feels is necessary.
Bullet – The fastest workout of the day at a track at a particular distance.
Claiming race – A race in which each horse entered is eligible to be purchased at a set price.
Closer – A horse that runs best in the latter part of the race, coming from off the pace.
Connections – Persons identified with a horse, such as owner, trainer, jockey and stable employees.
Disqualification – Change in order of finish by stewards for an infraction of the rules.
Dam – The mother of a horse.
Entry – Two or more horses with common ownership that are paired as a single betting unit in one race.
Front-runner – A horse whose running style is to attempt to get on or near the lead at the start of the race and to continue there as long as possible.
Furlong – An eighth of a mile.
Graded race – A non-restricted race with added money or guaranteed purse value of $100,000 or more which has been run at least twice under similar conditions and on the same surface and has been assigned graded status for the year contested by the American Graded Stakes Committee.
Handicap – This race type refers to a race where the weights are assigned by the track’s racing secretary or handicapper based upon past performances.
Length – A measurement approximating the length of a horse, used to denote distance between horses in a race.
Off track – A track that has a wet surface and isn’t labeled as “fast”.
Pacesetter – The horse that is running in front (on the lead).
Past performances – A horse’s racing record, earnings, bloodlines and other data, presented in composite form.
Prep – A workout (or race) used to prepare a horse for a future engagement.
Post Parade – Horses going from paddock to starting gate past the stands. The post parade provides spectators with a chance to get a final look at the horse before the race.
Post Position – Position of stall in starting gate from which a horse begins a race.
Rabbit – A speed horse running as an entry with another, usually a come-from-behind horse. The rabbit is expected to set a fast pace to help the chances of its stablemate.
Rank – A horse that refuses to settle under a jockey’s handling in a race, running in a headstrong manner without respect to pace.
Scratch – To be taken out of a race before it starts.
Silks – Jacket and cap worn by jockeys.
Sire – Father of a foal.
Stakes – A race for which the owner usually must pay a fee to run a horse. The fees can be for nominating, maintaining eligibility, entering and starting, to which the track adds more money to make up the total purse. Some stakes races are by invitation and require no payment or fee.