Making Money Betting the Florida Derby Favorites
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Mohaymen (left) and Nyquist will be prohibitive favorites in Saturday's Florida Derby. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
The $1-million Xpressbet.com Florida Derby on Saturday at Gulfstream Park promises to be one of most exciting Kentucky Derby prep races in years thanks to the presence of Mohaymen (#9) and Nyquist (#4), two unbeaten colts that are the favorites for the Kentucky Derby.
Both of these horses have compiled stellar records. Nyquist was the champion 2-year-old last year after winning three Grade 1 races including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and his comeback win in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita was exceptional. Mohaymen has also been impressive while winning four graded stakes races and showcasing a variety of running styles, and he’s also 2-for-2 at Gulfstream and has a “home track” advantage.
Trying to separate Nyquist and Mohaymen is very difficult, and since both will be heavily-bet, it could be difficult to make a profit if they finish first and second. Therefore, rather than focus on betting them to win or playing them in the exacta, we’ll focus our attention on the trifecta and superfecta, which offer the potential for higher payoffs.
The most logical candidate to finish in the exotics is Fellowship (#2), who finished third in both the Holy Bull Stakes and Fountain of Youth Stakes behind Mohaymen. My gut feeling is that nine furlongs might be too far for him, but he almost always runs well and could be closing ground at the finish if the early pace is fast.
FELLOWSHIP
Perhaps a more intriguing candidate for the exotics is Takeittothedge (#7), who scored by 7 ¾ lengths in his debut sprinting seven furlongs at Gulfstream on March 5. With only one race under his belt, this is a huge step up in class and a major challenge, but trainer Dale Romans has said that Takeittotheedge will likely be sent to the lead, which would give Takeittotheedge the advantage of saving ground over a generally speed-favoring track.
Another contender is Majesto, who finished in the trifecta in three of his first four starts before winning an 8.5-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream by a length. He will have the three-time Eclipse award-winning jockey Javier Castellano in the saddle and has already faced some talented horses, including Destin and Gettysburg. He looks like an improving runner with a big chance to finish in the top four.
Wagering Strategy A: Trifectas
$3 trifecta: 4,9 with 4,9 with 2,3,7 ($18)
$1 trifecta: 4,9 with 2,3,7 with 4,9 ($6)
Wagering Strategy B: Superfectas
$1 superfecta: 4,9 with 4,9 with 2,3,7 with 2,3,7 ($12)
$0.50 superfecta: 4,9 with 2,3,7 with 4,9 with 2,3,7 ($6)
$0.50 superfecta: 4,9 with 2,3,7 with 2,3,7 with 4,9 ($6)
Wagering Strategy C: If You Want to Try for a Big Score
$1 trifecta: 2,3,7 with 4,9 with 2,3,4,7,9 ($18)
$1 exacta: 2,3,7 with 2,3,7 ($6)
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
$1-million Xpressbet Florida DerbyApril 2, Race 14, Gulfstream Park, 6:48 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owner(s)
Odds
1
Sawyers Mickey
Scott Spieth
Peter Walder
Loooch Racing Stables
30-1
2
Fellowship
Jose Lezcano
Stanley Gold
Jacks or Better Farm
15-1
3
Majesto
Javier Castellano
Gustavo Delgado
Grupo 7C Racing Stable
20-1
4
Nyquist
Mario Gutierrez
Doug O'Neill
Reddam Racing
6-5
5
Copingaway
Miguel A. Vasquez
Jaime Mejia
Thoroughbred Champions Training Center
50-1
6
Chovanes
Edgard Zayas
Jorge Navarro
Gelfenstein Farm
30-1
7
Takeittotheedge
Tyler Gaffalione
Dale Romans
Bakster Farm
20-1
8
Fashionable Freddy
Nik Juarez
Nick Zito
My Meadowview Farm
30-1
9
Mohaymen
Junior Alvarado
Kiaran McLaughlin
Shadwell Stable
1-1
10
Isofass
Julien Leparoux
Francis Abbott, III
DB DOJO
30-1