Dan’s Double: A Value Bet and a Much-Awaited Return

When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Dan Tordjman, America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent, is one of the brightest young minds in the game.
Each week, Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup.
Come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.
NOTE: THIS WEEK YOU CAN WATCH DAN GAMBLE LIVE ON AMERICA’S BEST RACING’S NEW TWITCH TV CHANNEL … WATCH HIM PLAY THE LATE PICK 4 AT GULFSTREAM PARK ON SATURDAY BEGINNING AT 4:30 PM ET BY CLICKING HERE. 
Saturday, Gulfstream Park, Race 13, Pan American Stakes (G2), 6:11 p.m. ET
#10 Montclair (12-1): This horse has the looks of one who could be coming into a big race. He is a Group 3 winner in France and he also won an allowance race at the distance. Notably, all of his best races have come on a surface with some moisture in it, and the forecast leading up to Saturday includes rain. He’s trained by one of the sharpest turf conditioners in the game, Christophe Clement, and he also retains the services of one of best turf riders (especially when going long) in Julien Leparoux. Over a good turf course at Gulfstream last out, Leparoux beautifully settled this horse off the pace and surged to take a nice allowance race, beating the returning #6 O’Prado Ole, who finished fourth to several of the leading contenders in the race last out in the Grade 2 Mac Diarmida Stakes. What’s notable is that O’Prado Ole is a front-running horse and in this race, he’ll probably be joined up front by the forwardly placed #9 Seeking Alpha, #4 Grand Tito and, potentially, #2 Jay Gatsby. I’m not saying there will be a speed duel in a mile-and-a-half stakes race, but I think the pace will only aid a horse like Montclair who will be closing late. In his first two U.S. starts last year, he was compromised by soft times early, especially in the Cape Henlopen Stakes. These will be tougher horses but Montclair won’t have to worry about sitting off splits of :54.62, 1:20.78 and 1:46.46. At 12-1 on the morning line, there should be plenty of value to be had here, too.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$2 win, place and show on #10 Montclair ($6)                         
$1 exacta 4,10 with 1,4,10 ($4)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$1 trifecta box 1,4,10 ($6)
$1 exacta box 1,4,10 ($6)
$1 trifecta 1,10 with 1,4,10 with 1,3,4,7,10 ($12)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$1 exacta box 1,4,10 ($6)
$.50 trifecta 1,4,10 with 1,4,10 with ALL ($24)
$10 to win and $5 to place and show on #10 Montclair ($20)
Sunday, March 3, Race 7, Aqueduct, 4:38 p.m. ET

Waymond Boyd: If you watched this horse’s last race, then you’ve been waiting for him to come back. He broke poorly, got shuffled back, dropped well off the pace and then make an enormous move late. He was so loaded that his jockey could hardly handle him as weaved inside and outside of horses to rush up for what may otherwise look like an average fourth-place finish in a three-quarter-mile sprint. On Sunday, he gets an extra quarter-mile while stretching out to one mile, which should benefit him, especially if he can get some pace to run into. Horses like Altar Boy and Piloting are capable of flashing some speed, and Bellamy Way (a 7 1/2-length winner last out) will probably be asked early in an effort to avoid getting stuck out wide from post-position 10. Consider it a good sign that leading local jockey Jose Ortiz jumps aboard Waymond Boyd, who is owned by Olympic gold medalist Bode Miller.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$5 win and place on Waymond Boyd ($10)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$1 exacta box Waymond Boyd, Bellamy Way, Lunar River, Altar Boy ($12)
$1 trifecta box Waymond Boyd, Bellamy Way, Lunar River ($6)
$5 to win on Waymond Boyd ($5)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$1 exacta box Waymond Boyd, Bellamy Way, Lunar River, Altar Boy ($12)
$1 trifecta box Waymond Boyd, Bellamy Way, Lunar River ($6)
$10 win, place and show on Waymond Boyd ($30)                            
ROI Year to date: $1,828.20 wagered/$2,403.30 returned