Los Ponies Longshots: Riding Momentum
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Welcome to Los Ponies Longshots! Each week, America’s Best Racing’s Southern California correspondent Jose Contreras – Los Ponies to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide two or three longshots at 5-to-1 odds or better on the morning line that he identifies as strong value bets. Contreras also will map out a betting strategy for how to play his selections and keep track of his return on investment (ROI).
Stop back each week if you love a longshot!
Saturday, Race 10, Santa Anita Park, 8 p.m. ET
#1 Film Freak (12-1): This colt made his first start of the year a winning one when switching to the barn of Tim Yakteen after being on a break since October. I liked the improvement he showed and it appears he still has more room to improve. His two previous efforts around two turns weren’t too bad, so I'm taking a shot that his maiden-breaking win has woken him up.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$1 exacta: 1 with 2,8,9,10,11 ($5)
$1 exacta: 2,8,9,10,11 with 1 ($5)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$10 win: Film Freak ($10)
$5 place: Film Freak ($5)
$1 exacta: 1 with 2,8,9,10,11 ($5)
$1 exacta: 2,8,9,10,11 with 1 ($5)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$10 win: Film Freak ($10)
$1 exacta box: 1,2,8,10,11 ($20)
$1 trifecta: 1 with 2,8,9,10,11 with 2,8,9,10,11 ($20)
Sunday, Race 10, Santa Anita Park, 8 p.m. ET
#6 Boat Drinks (12-1): She finally broke her maiden in her 10th start on this same downhill turf course. Her Beyer Speed Figure was a bit lower than some of her competition in this race, but I liked the way she looked coming down the stretch. It took her a while to get her first win, but she’s shown a liking to this downhill course, given that she’s never finished off the board in five starts. She’s got enough speed to stay close to the leaders early on and make her move late in the race.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$1 exacta: 6 with 1,4,5,9,11 ($5)
$1 exacta: 1,4,5,9,11 with 6 ($5)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$10 win: Boat Drinks ($10)
$5 Place: Boat Drinks ($5)
$1 exacta: 6 with 1,4,5,9,11 ($5)
$1 exacta: 1,4,5,9,11 with 6 ($5)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$10 win: Boat Drinks ($10)
$1 exacta box: 1,2,8,10,11 ($20)
$1 trifecta: 6 with 1,4,5,9,11 with 1,4,5,9,11 ($20)
ROI Year to date: $1955 wagered/$212.10 returned