How to Approach Betting First-Time Starters

A horse parades in the paddock before a maiden race at Delaware Park. (All photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
One of the enduring puzzles for handicappers at the racetrack is how to assess horses who have never raced before, or “first-time starters.” Most handicappers live and die by their ability to divine how a horse will perform based on past performance. With first time starters, there are no past performances to judge. How, then, should we play races with one or more horses making their debut on the racetrack?
Most folks will tell you that handicapping first-time starters is a fool’s errand and to pass on races with too many unraced horses. Maybe they’re right. But sometimes you don’t have that luxury, like when there’s a maiden special weight race right in the middle of your Pick 4. And sometimes, races with some first-time starters just present good betting opportunities.
Below are some angles to look for before deciding to pass on the race:
Maiden Special Weight vs. Maiden Claiming
The first thing to take a look at is the kind of maiden race it is. Maiden special weight (MSW) races are a class above maiden claiming races. One thing to remember is that horses entered in a maiden claiming race essentially are being offered for sale. If a horse is racing for the first time ever and it’s already being offered up for sale, that doesn’t show a whole lot of confidence in the horse. That doesn’t mean the horse is an automatic toss, but it is a red flag.
This isn’t always true. Take a look at what the horse sold for at auction and compare that with the claiming price of the race it is entered in. If the claiming price of this race is higher than what the horse sold for at auction, then it could send the opposite message. If it’s considerably higher, even morseo. If the horse wasn’t sold at auction, take a look at the stud fee and add $10,000 to get an idea for what the relative value of the horse might be to the connections.
Most decent first-time starters are going to be entered first in maiden special weight races, naturally. After all, before they run a single race they are all potentially champions. This is also the type of race where first-time starters perform the best. One thing to look for is the inverse of the previous calculation. If a horse in a MSW race has a considerably lower auction price (or stud fee +$10k) then it could mean that the trainer has considerable confidence in the horse — enough to enter it in a valuable race.
Trainers
The Daily Racing Form and racing program will have stats on trainers, including how well they do with first-time starters. This is a useful stat, but remember that everyone else is looking at it, too! Some trainers with really high percentages will see their horses get bet TOO much. Wesley Ward, for example, has been known to really excel with young, first-time starters. As a result, his first-time starters are sometimes bet down to even money. So this is an angle that is worth maybe avoiding since it might create an underlay.
Take a look at other habits the trainer may have. Do they typically work horses out from a starting gate? The presence of a lot of gate workouts on the workout tab for a first-time starter might be a sign that the horse has trouble with the gate. Are they based somewhere else and only in town for a big race? If so, the fact that they brought a first-time starter to town with them might be a sign of real confidence.
The Big Day
If it’s a big day at the track, with lots of big shots in town to compete in a large stakes race, and especially if it’s a big day at a track like Saratoga Race Course or Keeneland Race Course with shorter meets packed with big races, then ignore first-time starters at your peril. A trainer chose to run that horse for the first time under a bright spotlight rather than giving it a lower-key race to see if it was ready. I don’t have stats to back this up, but I feel like I get burned all the time on big days in maiden races by out-of-town shipper, first-time starters that I should have paid attention to. Most of the time, they pay a good price, which is probably why I ignored them to begin with. I tend to fall for this fallacy more than I’d like to admit. If a horse has a big price, I figure there must be a good reason and I don’t give it a close enough look.
MAIDEN RACE AT DEL MAR

Overlay, Overlay!
This is a big reason why you should look at first-time starters. I’m not the only one who falls victim to this kind of faulty thinking. And horses in these kinds of maiden races that will attract more than their fair share of bets are horses that have some races under their belts. It makes sense: they get all the attention because they have some previous races for bettors to go on. If a horse recently finished second, that horse is going to get pounded at the windows. But the logic here is totally counter-intuitive. A horse that has already demonstrated that it can’t win is a favorite over a horse that has yet to run a race? A block of marble waiting to be chisled into a masterpiece? Maybe. But like everything at the track, it all depends on the price. At 20-1, I like those first-timers a lot more than the horse that keeps getting beat that’s 5-2.
How to bet these first-timers is another story. In multi-race wagers, I tend to be a bit of a maximalist. I try my best to throw them all in or, barring that, make a solid case for why I should throw any of them out. In single-race wagers where an interesting first time-starter is offering a huge price, you can bet them across the board and show a good profit and not worry about the exotics. Since these types of races often have pretty big fields, it’s really hard to figure out how to bet them. Sometimes, you just have to be willing to take a chance. That’s why they call it gambling.
Pedigree
One thing I haven’t touched on here at all is pedigree. Many will say this is the only thing that matters when handicapping first-time starters, and they may be right. This just isn’t something I’m that experienced with. I’ve never been much of a pedigree handicapper, for better or for worse. But where there is a dearth of information on a first-time starter’s running ability, there is a wealth of information about the horse’s parents. And some sires and mares are exceptional at producing horses that win the first-time out. The trouble is that this information isn’t always there for you in the racing program. You may need to do some Googling.
REGALLY BRED HONOR CODE WINNING DEBUT

The Paddock
My last bit of advice may be the best. Sometimes, when there’s nothing else to go on, you just need to go with your gut. And the best way to get a gut feeling is to go look at all the horses in the paddock. When you can see the horses standing side by side, sometimes one will stand out for one reason or another. Maybe one looks much bigger and stronger than the others. Maybe one looks much healthier and shinier than the others. Maybe one looks fired up and ready to go. And seeing a glimmer in a horse’s eye or a spring in their step might be a piece of information that you and only you possess. Sometimes, horse racing is like that. When all else fails, you just gotta look a horse eye to eye and size it up.