Bram’s Take: Cherry Wine on Top in Blue Grass

Cherry Wine, above, looks like a nice value bet in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland race Course. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
It has been a quarter-century since a horse won the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and the Kentucky Derby in the same year. Something feels wrong about that, like bourbon suddenly being produced in Massachusetts or the greatest potatoes being sourced in New Mexico.
After seeing what Nyquist did to Mohaymen in Florida a week ago, it’s safe to say that whoever wins in Lexington on Saturday won’t be the favorite for the Derby, especially when a 10-1 horse or better crosses the finish line first. You read that right.
The early favorite for the Blue Grass this year is Zulu and for good reason. 1. He’s got the lethal Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano combination. 2. There doesn’t appear to be a mega-horse in his way. 3. His lone loss was to Mohaymen, which at the time no one considered a loss, more like a look at how high the bar is.
All that information tells me is: If Zulu does win this race, he’s unlikely to break that Blue Grass streak. That’s good news for me; I don’t like favorites anyway, and after his performance in the Fountain of Youth, in which he got blown out in the stretch, there are overlooked options that could pose the right kind of threat to Nyquist come the first Saturday in May.
That’s the long way of saying, I think we all stand to make some cash on this race and that would “Make the Blue Grass Great Again!”
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Here’s the field for the Blue Grass Stakes:
1. Looking for a Kiss: I’m looking for something a little deeper here, and I’m not finding it. His last race was only seven-eighths of a mile and he lost by five lengths as one of the favorites. I think him hitting the board would be worth kissing someone over.
2. Donegal Moon: I don’t even understand what happened here. So he’s in three graded stakes races, gets his tail whopped in all three, so they toss him in some $51,000 race at Parx Racing to do what? Help him get his groove back? It’s like if Tyson Gay got sick of losing to Usain Bolt, so he set up a sprint against a bunch of 6-year-old girls.
3. Cherry Wine: Spoiler alert — love him. His normal modus operandi is to stay off the pace but not put the distance he did in his last race. So, lesson learned, this horse can’t be 13 lengths back and completely recover. But man did he try. I expect him to stalk mid-pack and, if he’s there, watch out Zulu.
4. Zulu: The larger question here is: Are you really sure about this horse in this spot? I think the clear answer is no. His first stakes run was an admirable second to Mohaymen. Logic says, well there’s no Mohaymen here so he wins, right? Wrong. He got passed early in that stretch. Logic says it could happen again.

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
5. Crescent Drive: He’s a value play here in exotics. Clearly, he is not of the class of these contenders, but he’s a fighter and he’s 4-for-4 hitting the board. If Zulu runs out of gas, maybe he’s one that steals show. And that 20-1 number might turn this trifecta into a bonanza.
6. Brody’s Cause: Things were looking up back in October when this guy won a Grade 1 stakes race on a muddy Kenneland track and then made a game attempt to steal the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by coming from way off the pace. And then 2016 happened, and it’s like the magic went away. Maybe he should go to Parx and race in a $15,000 race to get his mojo back, too.
7. Laoban: This is the classic teaser. He’s sitting there at 12-1 and you’re going “but, but, but look how he almost won his last go, a $400,000 stakes race!” Almost doesn’t cut it. I don’t think he can do the distance, so I don’t think he can win. Now, whether you want to include him in the exotic bet, that’s a question of how much you want to spend.
8. Twizz: Massive jump in class, massive jump in distance. You also have to buy into Mitchell Murrill as a Kentucky Derby-worthy jockey. The fact that he’s not 50-1 but installed at only at 12-1 makes me take him a little more seriously then I normally would. I’ll be watching to see if betters bring those odds down. If they do, he goes in any bet I make.
9. Goats Town: He has shown the propensity to finish well with four different jockeys on him. That’s great. He also hasn’t won any of those races either. So it looks like there is no secret sauce here. I’m out.
10. American Dubai: You have to assume that you are just going to have to toss his last race out as an anomaly. And for that reason, I’m willing to look at him as another possible trifecta play, but even his previous more competitive races didn’t provide any proof that he could win.
11. Cards of Stone: He wins his debut as a huge longshot. He wins his last race as a huge favorite. He’ll be somewhere in the middle and somewhere in the middle has always meant a whole lotta nothin’.

Photo by Adam Coglianese/NYRA
12. Zapperini: See last month, when I officially expected him to be Zapperini’d. At the Risen Star, he was indeed Zapperini’d. History repeats itself.
13. Star Hill: So he runs in the Tampa Derby and gets blown out. Case closed. Move on right? Slow down. Look at the prior race. He runs seven-eighths of a mile in Derby-worthy splits and wins by 7 ¾ lengths. Not one other race in his short career comes close. So the connections put Emisael Jaramillo back on him. The only ride he’d had on him prior to this one was that race. He’s a huge wild card here ...
14. My Man Sam: This one is sneaky good and his 10-1 number is sneaky enticing. Two races ago, I’d say I didn’t like the times enough to really be impressed. So, he topped them, by almost two seconds across the board. He’s getting better really, really quickly. And if he is peaking, he’s going to win.

Photo by Adam Coglianese/NYRA
Two Also-Eligible Entants: Pinson/Hint of Roses. Thanks, but no thanks on both.
The pick: Can My Man Sam improve again? Can he get the right route from the outside post? I have a feeling he plays a huge role in the outcome, but because of the larger questions about him in this spot, I’m more apt to take a shot on Cherry Wine. I expect Corey Lanerie to lay back early, but not as far back at he did when he got into too big of a hole to erase in the Rebel Stakes. Positioned right, and traffic clear, Cherry Wine is what I’ll be drinking Saturday night to celebrate a big hit.
The Full Milty: This is the type of race Milton J. Weinstein dreamed of — big odds on horses with real shots. He’d box a ton of them. I’m a little more risk averse with my cash, so let’s do a trifecta with Cherry Wine and My Man Sam on top over Zulu, Crescent Drive, Brody’s Cause, Laoban, Twizz, American Dubai and Star Hill.
Santa Anita Derby: If this was a sprint race, five horses would have a real shot, including Iron Rob and Denman’s Call. But it’s not, so this thing figures to be a three-horse showdown. Danzing Candy got the best trip at the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes in beating both Mor Spirit and Exaggerator. So, I don’t think less of the latter two in the rematch. The fact that they find themselves coming out of the gate next to one another makes this even more interesting. So what does Gary Stevens do being on the “outside” of the other two? Well, he has to figure Iron Rob, two slots to his right goes to the front, so if he follows along he should be positioned where he wants to be early. This leaves Danzing Candy to get the break he wants, too, otherwise he’ll find himself chasing, and the truth is we don’t know how he’ll handle that. For that reason, I think if Mor Spirit is on his game, he wins here. But if he’s not, I like Exaggerator to steal this. 
Wood Memorial Stakes: There is a big part of me that looks at this and thinks, enjoy the day boys because there won’t be any roses coming your way in May. Not unlike the Santa Anita Derby, this feels like a three-horse race, Shagaf on the inside, Outwork on the outside and Matt King Cole, who has impressive wins but not anywhere near this class. It’s hard to look at Shagaf and his pedestrian speed ratings and think he’s a clear favorite, so I won’t. Give me Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez any day of the week when they aren’t the people’s choice. I’ll take Outwork and I think at the end of the day Matt King Cole makes the final turn on the lead but then watches his Derby ticket evaporate in a New York minute.

$1-million Toyota Blue Grass StakesSaturday, Keeneland Race Course, Race 10, 6 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, Dirt, 3-year-olds

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner(s)

Odds

1

Lookin for a Kiss

Tyler Gaffalione

Michael Tomlinson

Michael J. Bruder

50-1

2

Donegal Moon

Martin Garcia

Todd Pletcher

Donegal Racing

5-1

3

Cherry Wine

Corey Lanerie

Dale Romans

William Pacella and Frank L. Jones Jr.

12-1

4

Zulu

Javier Castellano

Todd Pletcher

Stonestreet Stables, Susan Magnier, Michael B. Tabor and Derrick Smith

5-2

5

Crescent Drive

James Graham

Tom Amoss

Paul Van Doren

20-1

6

Brody's Cause

Luis Saez

Dale L. Romans

Albaugh Family Stable

4-1

7

Laoban

Jose Lezcano

Eric Guillot

McCormick Racing and Southern Equine Stable

12-1

8

Twizz

Mitchell Murrill

Mike Maker

Warner Thoroughbreds, Lewis III, Lewis, Setzer, Setzer et al.

30-1

9

Goats Town

Robby Albarado

D. Wayne Lukas

Calumet Farm

20-1

10

American Dubai

Chris Landeros

Rodney Richards

Richard Keith

20-1

11

Cards of Stone

Paco Lopez

Todd Pletcher

Highclere America, McConnell Racing Stable, Wachtel Stable and D. Bilinski

20-1

12

Zapperini

Francisco Torres

Greg Foley

Lloyd Madison Farms IV

30-1

13

Star Hill

Emisael Jaramillo

Rusty Arnold

Calumet Farm

10-1

14

My Man Sam

Julien Leparoux

Chad Brown

Sheep Pond Partners, Newport Stables and Jay W. Bligh

10-1

AE.

Pinson

Joe Bravo

Mike Maker

Ken and Sarah Ramsey

30-1

AE.

Hint of Roses

Florent Geroux

Mike Maker

Ken and Sarah Ramsey

30-1