Upset Potential for My Man Sam in Wide-Open Blue Grass

My Man Sam could surprise morning-line favorite Zulu in Saturday's Blue Grass Stakes. (Photo courtesy of Adam Coglianese/NYRA)
The 92nd running of the $1-million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland features a full field of 14 vying for the $600,000 winner's share of the purse and 100 points on the "Road to the Kentucky Derby," which assures said winner a spot in Louisville in four weeks. Even the 40 points awarded to the runner-up is highly likely to be enough to start in the Derby so many horses and their connections will be all out to win.
Leading the field is Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes runner-up Zulu, one of three horses saddled by North American leading trainer Todd Pletcher, along with Cards of Stone and Donegal Moon. Last fall, Brody's Cause won the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland and is hoping to return to that form following third- and seventh-place finishes. Laoban led the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes field until mid-stretch and could take these on a merry chase, while Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby third-place finisher Star Hill might improve. In addition, five others enter the Blue Grass off wins or runner-up finishes and could jump up to run well. 
My Man Sam tried two turns on Jan. 31 in his second career start, rallying from 15 lengths back to win by eight. The word "impressive" isn't strong enough to describe that effort. He followed that up with a rally from fifth (of six) to get second in his most recent race. He earned 108, then 110, Equibase Speed Figures for those efforts. To put that in perspective, Zulu (who will probably be the betting favorite) earned a 111 figure finishing second to previously undefeated Mohaymen in the Fountain of Youth. With a fast early pace courtesy of Twizz and Laoban, My Man Sam can just sit back and wait for the quarter pole where jockey Julien Leparoux can angle him out to the middle of the track and let him roll by the field to win. 
Star Hill was trying two turns for only the second time in his career last month in the Tampa Bay Derby and his third-place effort may be better than it looks on paper as he's still learning. Prior to that, Star Hill earned a 105 figure winning by eight lengths. He's bred to handle this nine-furlong distance with no issues so if he rebounds back to the form shown one before last he could be tough. Star Hill is reunited with the jockey (Jaramillo) who rode him in the eight length win but not in the more recent defeat. As such, he can either upset the field here or run big at high odds for our profit in the exacta.
ZULU

Photo courtesy of Coady Photography/Keeneland
Zulu will go off as the favorite due to his runner-up finish to Mohaymen. That was his first two-turn race and only the third start of his career, earning a career-best 111 speed figure in the process. He adds blinkers to help him focus as he made the lead mid-race in the Fountain of Youth only to lose it late. Bred to get this distance as well as the Derby distance of a mile and one-quarter, there's no doubt Zulu can win here. From a wagering perspective, he will be lower odds at post time than I think reasonable for a win bet but he must be used on any exacta or multi-race tickets. 
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is American Dubai (103), Brody's Cause (97), Cards of Stone (97), Cherry Wine (98), Crescent Drive (99), Donegal Moon (101), Goats Town (92), Hint of Roses (84), Laoban (108), Lookin for a Kiss (89), Pinson (87), Twizz (94) and Zapperini (90). 
My selections:My Man SamStar HillZulu 
You can get Ellis' detailed selections and analysis for the entire day of racing at Keeneland at Equibase.com.
$1-million Toyota Blue Grass StakesSaturday, Keeneland Race Course, Race 10, 6 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, Dirt, 3-year-olds

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner(s)

Odds

1

Lookin for a Kiss

Tyler Gaffalione

Michael Tomlinson

Michael Bruder

50-1

2

Donegal Moon

Martin Garcia

Todd Pletcher

Donegal Racing

5-1

3

Cherry Wine

Corey Lanerie

Dale Romans

William Pacella and Frank Jones Jr.

12-1

4

Zulu

Javier Castellano

Todd Pletcher

Stonestreet Stables, Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith

5-2

5

Crescent Drive

James Graham

Tom Amoss

Paul Van Doren

20-1

6

Brody's Cause

Luis Saez

Dale L. Romans

Albaugh Family Stable

4-1

7

Laoban

Jose Lezcano

Eric Guillot

McCormick Racing and Southern Equine Stable

12-1

8

Twizz

Mitchell Murrill

Mike Maker

Warner Thoroughbreds, Lewis III, Lewis, Setzer, Setzer et al.

30-1

9

Goats Town

Robby Albarado

D. Wayne Lukas

Calumet Farm

20-1

10

American Dubai

Chris Landeros

Rodney Richards

Richard Keith

20-1

11

Cards of Stone

Paco Lopez

Todd Pletcher

Highclere America, McConnell Racing Stable, Wachtel Stable and D. Bilinski

20-1

12

Zapperini

Francisco Torres

Greg Foley

Lloyd Madison Farms IV

30-1

13

Star Hill

Emisael Jaramillo

Rusty Arnold

Calumet Farm

10-1

14

My Man Sam

Julien Leparoux

Chad Brown

Sheep Pond Partners, Newport Stables and Jay W. Bligh

10-1

AE.

Pinson

Joe Bravo

Mike Maker

Ken and Sarah Ramsey

30-1

AE.

Hint of Roses

Florent Geroux

Mike Maker

Ken and Sarah Ramsey

30-1

*AE denotes horses who are "also-eligible," meaning they may run if one or more scratches in the main body of the field occur.