Three Live Longshots to Consider in Blue Grass Stakes
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My Man Sam (above) could pull off an upset in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland Race Course. (Coady Photography)
On Saturday at Keeneland Race Course, a very deep and competitive field of 14 3-year-olds will head to the starting gate for the $1-million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, a major Kentucky Derby prep race that offers 100 Derby qualification points to the winner.
With such a large field, you can be sure that the Blue Grass Stakes will be a terrific betting race with plenty of opportunities for big payoffs. I’ve identified three longshots that I think have a great chance to win the race or finish in the top three:
#10 American Dubai (20-1): Although he disappointed when finishing 13th in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes last time out, he also didn’t get the best trip racing wide while chasing a fast pace. Two starts back, he led past the eighth pole of the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes before tiring slightly to finish third in a performance that would put him in the mix on Saturday. Expect to see him near the lead in the Blue Grass and, if he can avoid getting caught wide on the turns, I think he can hang on to finish in the top four.
Coady Photography
#13 Star Hill (10-1): After earning his first career win by 7 ¾ lengths in his fourth start, Star Hill was no match for Destin and Outwork in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby, but he did produce a mild late run to finish a clear third. Drawing post-position 13 is a concern, but if the early pace is fast —a definite possibility with about a half-dozen speed horses in the race — I think Star Hill could settle in mid-pack and get first run at the leaders to finish in the top four.
Photo by Lauren Hill/NYRA
#14 My Man Sam (10-1): He’s drawn widest of all in post-position 14, but as a deep closer who prefers to run from the back of the pack, that shouldn’t affect him much. In his last two races, both around two turns, he has produced fantastic late runs to win a maiden race by eight lengths and finish second in an allowance race behind the highly regarded Matt King Coal. Furthermore, the Beyer Speed Figures that he earned — a 91 and a 95, respectively — stack up very well against the figures earned by his Blue Grass rivals. If the pace is fast, I think he’ll have the best chance to take advantage and come roaring from the back of the pack to score an upset victory.
Photo by Adam Coglianese/NYRA
In handicapping the race, I’ll look to play My Man Sam on top of exactas and trifectas while using American Dubai, Star Hill, and the favorites Cherry Wine (#3), Zulu (#4), and Brody’s Cause (#6) underneath. Two horses that might be worth playing against are Donegal Moon (#2) and Cards of Stone (#11). Both enter the Blue Grass Stakes off of 13-length victories in allowance races, but in both cases, they benefited from setting or tracking a slow early pace. With a spirited pace expected in the Blue Grass, both might be vulnerable. On the other hand, three-time Blue Grass Stakes-winning trainer Todd Pletcher trains both colts, and Donegal Moon owns the highest Beyer Speed Figure of any horse in the race with a 99. Therefore, I’ll also look to play a couple of small saver tickets on Donegal Moon just in case he is able to repeat his most recent performance.
Wagering Strategy A: Exactas
$3 exacta: 14 with 3,4,6 ($9)
$2 exacta: 3,4,6 with 14 ($6)
$2 exacta: 14 with 10,13 ($4)
$2 exacta: 10,13 with 14 ($4)
$1 exacta: 2,14 with 2,14 ($2)
Wagering Strategy B: Trifectas and a Saver Exacta
$0.50 trifecta: 14 with 3,4,6,10,13 with 3,4,6,10,13 ($10)
$0.50 trifecta: 3,4,6,10,13 with 14 with 3,4,6,10,13 ($10)
$2 exacta: 2,14 with 2,14 ($4)
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
$1-million Toyota Blue Grass StakesSaturday, Keeneland Race Course, Race 10, 6 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, Dirt, 3-year-olds
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owner(s)
Odds
1
Lookin for a Kiss
Tyler Gaffalione
Michael Tomlinson
Michael J. Bruder
50-1
2
Donegal Moon
Martin Garcia
Todd Pletcher
Donegal Racing
5-1
3
Cherry Wine
Corey Lanerie
Dale Romans
William Pacella and Frank L. Jones Jr.
12-1
4
Zulu
Javier Castellano
Todd Pletcher
Stonestreet Stables, Susan Magnier, Michael B. Tabor and Derrick Smith
5-2
5
Crescent Drive
James Graham
Tom Amoss
Paul Van Doren
20-1
6
Brody's Cause
Luis Saez
Dale L. Romans
Albaugh Family Stable
4-1
7
Laoban
Jose Lezcano
Eric Guillot
McCormick Racing and Southern Equine Stable
12-1
8
Twizz
Mitchell Murrill
Mike Maker
Warner Thoroughbreds, Lewis III, Lewis, Setzer, Setzer et al.
30-1
9
Goats Town
Robby Albarado
D. Wayne Lukas
Calumet Farm
20-1
10
American Dubai
Chris Landeros
Rodney Richards
Richard Keith
20-1
11
Cards of Stone
Paco Lopez
Todd Pletcher
Highclere America, McConnell Racing Stable, Wachtel Stable and D. Bilinski
20-1
12
Zapperini
Francisco Torres
Greg Foley
Lloyd Madison Farms IV
30-1
13
Star Hill
Emisael Jaramillo
Rusty Arnold
Calumet Farm
10-1
14
My Man Sam
Julien Leparoux
Chad Brown
Sheep Pond Partners, Newport Stables and Jay W. Bligh
10-1
AE.
Pinson
Joe Bravo
Mike Maker
Ken and Sarah Ramsey
30-1
AE.
Hint of Roses
Florent Geroux
Mike Maker
Ken and Sarah Ramsey
30-1