Betting Against Shagaf in Wood Memorial Stakes

Outwork (at right) finished second in the Tampa Bay Derby in his previous start and looks like a top contender to win the Wood Memorial Stakes on Saturday at Aqueduct. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
The $1-million Wood Memorial Stakes on Saturday at Aqueduct presents an interesting challenge for handicappers. A lot of the attention will be focused on the locally based runners, such as Shagaf (#1), the unbeaten winner of the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes and the most likely favorite in the Wood Memorial. But the local contingent has not been running particularly fast in their recent races.
As an example, Shagaf unleashed a nice, late run to win the Gotham by 1 ¼ lengths, but the fourth quarter-mile was timed in a slow :27.11 and the last sixteenth of a mile in just :07.10, while the final time of 1:45.90 translated to a Beyer Speed Figure of just 87. I’m a big fan of Shagaf and think he has a lot of talent and potential, but he’s facing several opponents in the Wood Memorial who have run faster races, so Shagaf — along with Gotham Stakes third-place finisher Adventist (#2) — could be vulnerable to an upset.
2016 GOTHAM STAKES

Video courtesy of NYRA
It’s also interesting to note that five of the last six Wood Memorial Stakes winners prepped in Florida, a noteworthy trend that suggests that Outwork (#8) could be the horse to beat. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Outwork won his first two races sprinting in easy fashion, then stretched out to 1 1/16 miles in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and set the pace before finishing a close second, beaten only a length, while finishing eight lengths clear of the third-place finisher. He earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 98 for that effort. With that performance under his belt, I think he could run even better in the Wood Memorial while making his second start around two turns.
I also greatly respect the chances of Matt King Coal (#6), who earned his first win in his third career start last October going a mile at Belmont Park before returning from a winter rest to win a 1 1/16-mile allowance race at Aqueduct by a length over My Man Sam, who is entered in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes on Saturday. Matt King Coal has been consistently fast, running Beyer Speed Figures of 93, 96, and 97 in his last three starts. He’s drawn inside of Outwork, which could enable Matt King Coal to sprint to the lead, take the rail and save more ground than Outwork. Also, since Outwork has shown the ability to rate just off the pace, I don’t envision these two colts hooking up in a battle for the lead. I think it’s more likely that they’ll set a modest pace and run 1-2 around the track, and for that reason they are my choices to complete the exacta.
Two other horses to consider are Flexibility (#5), who won the Grade 3 Jerome Stakes before finishing fourth with a troubled trip in the Grade 3 Withers Stakes, and California shipper Dalmore (#7), who looked great winning a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight race at Santa Anita Park by 2 ½ lengths while running his final 2 ½ furlongs in about 30 1/5 seconds, an excellent closing fraction.
Wagering Strategy A: Exactas
$6 exacta: 6,8 with 6,8 ($12)
$2 exacta: 6,8 with 1,5,7 ($12)
$1 exacta: 6,8 with 2 ($2)
Wagering Strategy B: Trifectas and a Superfecta
$2.50 trifecta: 6,8 with 6,8 with 1,5 ($10)
$1 trifecta: 6,8 with 6,8 with 2,7 ($4)
$0.50 trifecta: 6,8 with 1,2,5,7 with 6,8 ($4)
$0.50 superfecta: 6,8 with 6,8 with 1,5 with 1,2,4,5,7 ($8)
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
$1-million Wood Memorial StakesSaturday, Race 10, Aqueduct, 5:30 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

Odds

1.

Shagaf

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Chad Brown

Shadwell Stable

2-1

2.

Adventist

Kendrick Carmouche

Leah Gyarmati

Treadway Racing Stable

10-1

3.

Trojan Nation

Aaron Gryder

Patrick Gallagher

Julie Gilbert and Aaron Sones

30-1

4.

Tale of S'avall

Cornelio Velasquez

Barclay Tagg

Charles Fipke

20-1

5.

Flexibility

Manuel Franco

Chad Brown

Klaravich Stables and William Lawrence

8-1

6.

Matt King Coal

Jose Ortiz

Linda Rice

Lady Sheila Stable

3-1

7.

Dalmore

Junior Alvarado

Keith Desormeaux

Big Chief Racing, Keith Desormeaux, and Ronald Ortowski

12-1

8.

Outwork

John Velazquez

Todd Pletcher

Repole Stable

5-2