Dan’s Double: A Huge Value in Blue Grass

When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Dan Tordjman, America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent, is one of the brightest young minds in the game.
Each week, Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup.
Come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.
Saturday, April 9
Keeneland Race Course, Race 10, Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, 6 p.m. ET
#3 Cherry Wine (12-1): If you follow this blog on a weekly basis, you know two things: we’ve been red-hot lately and you’ve seen the name Cherry Wine here before. I touted this horse on March 19 when he came off a two-month layoff to make his stakes debut in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. He finished fourth, but in a loaded field of 14 in which he broke from the outside and encountered traffic late. That effort was as good as any. Of course, moral victories don’t pay the bills and it was one of the few races over the past month where our picks in this blog returned $0. Cherry Wine won’t let that happen again.
This is a horse with great foundation to make a forward move while stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. From a Beyer Speed Figure perspective, his numbers have steadily improved from late in his 2-year-old season to that last start at Oaklawn. He has the looks of a horse coming into a big race in his second start off a layoff, and he will also get an ideal pace setup. I’m expecting the speed horses up front - and there are several of them - to wear each other out, setting it up for a horse from off the pace. I also find it interesting that veteran rider Corey Lanerie (who has had an adventurous past few months of his own) opts to ride Cherry Wine for Dale Romans, over the trainer’s presumed barn star Brody’s Cause, who was favored last out in the Tampa Bay Derby. If you read between the lines here, there are a lot of positive signs pointing toward a big effort for Cherry Wine. What’s even “sweeter” is the value potential with a horse at 12-1 on the morning line.
Strategy on $10 Budget 
$5 win and place on #3 Cherry Wine ($10)
Strategy on $25 Budget 
$.50 trifecta box 3,4,6,14 ($12)
$1 exacta key box 3 over 4,6,11,12,13,14 ($12)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$1 exacta box 3,4,6,12,14 ($20)
$.50 trifecta 3,4 with 3,4,6,12,14 with 3,4,6,11,12,13,14 ($20)
$5 win and place on #3 Cherry Wine ($10)
Sunday, April 10
Keeneland Race Course, Race 5, 3:18 p.m. ET
#6 Galardonado (4-1): This horse comes out of an uncharacteristically dull effort at Gulftstream Park in his most recent race. Prior to that, he’d finished no worse than second in five of six races, including several wins against similar company. You can toss the last race on the basis of it being against tougher allowance-level horses. It’s also a good sign that top rider Javier Castellano picks up the mount and he’s scored with an astounding 64% of horses he’s ridden for trainer Mike Maker at Keeneland over the past year. This looks like an overall soft bunch, and this horse has the tactical ability to go straight to the lead or to sit just off of it and accelerate late. 
Strategy on $10 Budget
$10 to win on #6 Galardonado ($10)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$2 trifecta key 6 over 3,5,8 ($12)
$1 exacta box 3,5,6 ($6)
$7 to win on #6 Galardonado ($7)                      
Strategy on $50 Budget
$1 trifecta 6 over 3,5,8 over all ($18)
$1 trifecta 3,6 with 3,6 with 5,8 ($4)
$2 exacta box 3,6,8 ($12)
$1 exacta 5,6 with 3,5,6,8 ($6)
$10 to win on #6 Galardonado ($10)
ROI Year to date: $1,841.20 wagered/$2,403.30 returned