Is Brody’s Cause a True Threat to Win Kentucky Derby?

Brody's Cause redeemed his recent loss in the Tampa Bay Derby with a win in Saturday's Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
Making the Grade, which will run through the 2016 Belmont Stakes, focuses on the winners of the big races, usually from the previous weekend, who could impact the next Triple Crown. We’ll be taking a close look at impressive winners and evaluating their chances to win classic races based upon ability, running style, connections (owner, trainer, jockey) and pedigree.
This week we take a closer look at Brody’s Cause, winner of the $1-million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes on April 9 at Keeneland Race Course.

Brody’s Cause

Bay Colt
Sire (Father): Giant’s Causeway
Dam (Mother): Sweet Breanna, by Sahm
Owner: Albaugh Family Stable
Breeder: Gabriel Duignan, William Arvin Jr. and Petaluma Bloodstock (Ky.)
Trainer: Dale Romans
Kentucky Derby Points: 114 (Ranked No. 5)

You are forgiven if you dismissed Brody’s Cause after a dismal seventh-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby in his 2016 debut on May 12. His bounce-back victory in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, however, cemented his spot in the Kentucky Derby and showed he was back on top of his game. But is the top of his game good enough to factor in the Kentucky Derby? Let’s take a look …
Ability: A $350,000 purchase out of the prestigious first book of the 2014 Keeneland September yearling sale, Brody’s Cause clearly boasted the right combination of pedigree and physical conformation at a young age to warrant a hefty purchase price. While he never ran a step in his debut on grass, his second start provided a sign of things to come when he charged from ninth early to win by 1 ¼ lengths in September 2015 on the main track at Churchill Downs.
Brody’s Cause subsequently showed his class with a one-length victory in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. That win set him up for the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, in which he rallied powerfully to finish third behind eventual champion 2-year-old male Nyquist. He earned back-to-back 97 Equibase Speed Figures for the Breeders’ Futurity and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile — strong enough for reason for optimism but still below where he’d need to beat the best of his age group in a Triple Crown race.
Tampa Bay Downs is a unique racetrack in that often horses turn in inexplicable dud performances in their first race at Tampa. Brody’s Cause’s seventh-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby, beaten by more than 12 lengths, undoubtedly qualified as a dud. It was tough to guess whether Brody’s Cause just didn’t like the racetrack, needed a race in his first start in 3 ½ months or simply had not progressed from his juvenile season to his 3-year-old season.
The answer came in the Blue Grass Stakes stretch, where Brody’s Cause pulled away impressively to prevail by 1 ¾ lengths. The 99 Equibase Speed Figure was a new career top, but at anywhere from eight to 16 points below the best 3-year-olds in graded stakes races this year, Brody’s Cause still has significant ground to make up on the elite Kentucky Derby hopefuls.
Running style: Brody’s Cause is a confirmed deep closer, which means he’ll drop way back near the back of the pack in his races, conserve his energy and then make one powerful, late run. The good news is he should be just finding his best stride late in the Kentucky Derby. The bad news is he has to try to navigate his way from the back of a 20-horse field to the front without losing momentum. Luck in the form of a good, clean trip will play a significant factor for Brody’s Cause in the Kentucky Derby.
BRODY'S CAUSE AND CONNECTIONS IN THE WINNER'S CIRCLE

Connections: Brody’s Cause is trainer by Dale Romans, the 2012 Eclipse Award winner as outstanding trainer. Romans won the Breeders’ Cup Turf that year with Little Mike for his third career win in the Breeders’ Cup World Championships. A year earlier, Romans earned his first win in a U.S. Triple Crown race when Shackleford won the Preakness Stakes. Romans also has six other top three finishes in the Triple Crown, including a pair of third-place finishes in the Kentucky Derby with Paddy O’Prado in 2010 and Dullahan in 2012.
Through April 12, Romans has won 1,840 races, including 209 stakes, and his runners have amassed more than $97.9-million in purse earnings.
Romans’ father, Jerry, was a trainer based at Churchill Downs and Dale spent his youth at the barn. His racing education included a four-month stint with Hall of Fame trainer Woody Stephens.
Albaugh Family Stable is the Des Moines, Iowa-based racing operation of Jason Loutsch and Dennis Albaugh, who mortgaged his home to start his own pesticide company Albaugh Inc. Today Albaugh is a multibillion-dollar international company.
Dennis Albaugh also raced graded stakes winners Cozzetti and Miss Macy Sue.

Previous Making the Grades
Nyquist
Exaggerator
Airoforce
Flexibility
Collected
Mo Tom
Discreetness
Sunny Ridge
Mohaymen
Mor Spirit
Gun Runner
Zulu
Destin
Cupid
Danzing Candy
Majesto

Jockey Luis Saez rode Brody's Cause for the first time in the Blue Grass Stakes. A native of Panama City, Saez has had three mounts in the Kentucky Derby with his best finish coming in 2015 when he was ninth aboard Itsaknockout. Saez has won more than 1,400 races since taking out his jockey’s license in 2009. He won the Grade 1 Travers Stakes and Clark Handicap and $1-million Pennsylvania Derby in 2013 on Will Take Charge. 
Pedigree: Brody’s Cause is by three-time leading sire Giant’s Causeway, a superstar on the racetrack who won nine races and finished second four times in 13 starts.
A career earner of $3,078,989, Giant’s Causeway won five Group 1 races and was named European Horse of the Year in 2000. Likewise, Giant’s Causeway has been very successful as a sire with 99 group or graded stakes winners and eight champions on his résumé. His top runners to date include 2014 champion 2-year-old filly Take Charge Brandi and European champion Shamardal, a classic winner in France.
Brody’s Cause is out of the Sahm mare Sweet Breanna, a winner at 1 1/16 miles who finished second in two legs of the Canadian Triple Tiara for 3-year-old fillies in 2006. She was second in three stakes and third in another but never won a stakes race. Sweet Breanna has produced two winners from as many starters. In addition to Brody’s Cause, she is the dam (mother) of 2015 Tiffany Lass Stakes runner-up Midnight Sweetie.
Brody’s Cause’s grandam (maternal grandmother) is Grade 2 winner Sweet Roberta, by Roberto, who finished second in the 1989 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Sweet Roberta was a stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles and also a winner at 1 1/8 miles. She produced stakes winner Jah and is the grandam of graded stakes winner Went the Day Well, who finished fourth in the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Grade 1 winner and sire Cure the Blues also is a member of this family.
Brody’s Cause rebounded from a disappointing 2016 debut with a powerhouse win in the Blue Grass Stakes. If we toss out the Tampa Bay Derby and attribute the poor performance to him not caring for the Tampa Bay Downs main track and needing a race after a long layoff, Brody’s Cause looks like a very consistent runner. He also is in the capable hands of Dale Romans and boasts a strong pedigree for 1 ¼ miles. The big concern is that he has yet to show he’s fast enough to beat the best of this group of 3-year-olds.
Brody’s Cause should be doing his best running late in the Kentucky Derby, and I could see him rolling past horses and rallying into contention in the stretch. But at this point, he has a ton of ground to make up in a short amount of time to have a chance to win.