Derby Data: How Fast the Contenders Finish
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Unbeaten champion Nyquist pulled away to win the Florida Derby on April 2 at Gulfstream Park. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
From the moment that Exaggerator roared from more than 15 lengths behind to win the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby by 6 1/4 lengths on April 9, there has been a lot of discussion about how fast he ran the final three furlongs (three-eighths of a mile) of the race. Analyzing such fractional times has become a popular tool for handicapping the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands and for a good reason — horses that finish strongly at the end of their prep races frequently are more likely to handle the 1 ¼-mile distance of the Kentucky Derby than horses that are tiring at the end of their prep races.
Generally, a final three-eighths time of less than 38 seconds is considered very good, while anything over 39 seconds is slow. Of course, these times can be impacted by a variety of factors, including the speed of the racetrack and the early pace of the race (it’s easier to finish fast if you’ve gone very slow early on), but the fact remains that each of the last four Kentucky Derby winners — and six of the last 10 — ran the last three-eighths of their final Derby prep race in less than 38 seconds, indicating that analyzing these fractional times can be useful for handicapping the Kentucky Derby.
Derby winner
Final prep race
Final time
Final 3/8ths
American Pharoah
Arkansas Derby
1:48.52
:37.81
California Chrome
Santa Anita Derby
1:47.52
:36.69
Orb
Florida Derby
1:50.87
:37.73
I’ll Have Another
Santa Anita Derby
1:47.88
:36.41
Animal Kingdom
Spiral Stakes
1:52.32
:39.38
Super Saver
Arkansas Derby
1:49.41
:38.16
Mine That Bird
Sunland Derby
1:50.56
:40.27
Big Brown
Florida Derby
1:48.16
:38.08
Street Sense
Blue Grass Stakes
1:51.33
:34.35
Barbaro
Florida Derby
1:49.01
:37.56
CALIFORNIA CHROME FINISHED FAST IN 2014 SANTA ANITA DERBY
Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
In years past, calculating such fractions required using rough rules-of-thumb, since finals times and fractional splits were only published for the leader at each point of a race. But thanks to Trakus, a race-timing technology installed at many U.S. tracks, we can now access precise times for every horse in a race, making our task easier and much more accurate.
Using the data from Trakus, here are the final times and last three-eighths of a mile times for the Derby contenders that ran in the Xpressbet.com Florida Derby, Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial Stakes, and United Arab Emirates Derby:
Horse
Race
Final time
Final 3/8ths
Nyquist
Florida Derby
1:49.11
:37.72
Fellowship
Florida Derby
1:49.82
:37.77
Majesto
Florida Derby
1:49.65
:37.89
Brody's Cause
Blue Grass Stakes
1:50.38
:37.94
My Man Sam
Blue Grass Stakes
1:50.68
:37.92
Exaggerator
Santa Anita Derby
1:49.66
:38.09
Lani
UAE Derby
1:58.41 (9.5 furlongs)
:38.16
Cherry Wine
Blue Grass Stakes
1:50.70
:38.18
Mohaymen
Florida Derby
1:50.49
:38.98
Trojan Nation
Wood Memorial
1:52.98
:39.10
Laoban
Blue Grass Stakes
1:51.26
:39.71
Mor Spirit
Santa Anita Derby
1:50.83
:40.00
Adventist
Wood Memorial
1:53.30
:40.43
Outwork
Wood Memorial
1:52.98
:40.66
Shagaf
Wood Memorial
1:53.64
:40.80
Danzing Candy
Santa Anita Derby
1:52.16
:42.04
Trakus is not installed at Turfway Park and Fair Grounds, the hosts of the Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Spiral Stakes and Louisiana Derby, respectively, so I’ve calculated the final times and last three-eighths fractions from those races using the estimation that six lengths is equal to one second, which is slightly more precise than the old rule of thumb that five lengths is equal to one second. As a result, the following times are not quite as accurate as the Trakus fractions, but should be very close, particularly for Oscar Nominated, Azar, Gun Runner, and Mo Tom:
Horse
Race
Final time
Final 3/8ths
Oscar Nominated
Spiral Stakes
1:51.12
:37.29
Azar
Spiral Stakes
1:51.16
:37.33
Gun Runner
Louisiana Derby
1:51.06
:38.04
Mo Tom
Louisiana Derby
1:52.06
:38.21
Tom’s Ready
Louisiana Derby
1:51.81
:38.29
Dazzling Gem
Louisiana Derby
1:52.02
:38.83
I have also combined the data from both charts into a single chart (in order from fastest to slowest) to make it easier to compare all of the horses:
Horse
Race
Final time
Final 3/8ths
Oscar Nominated
Spiral Stakes
1:51.12
:37.29
Azar
Spiral Stakes
1:51.16
:37.33
Nyquist
Florida Derby
1:49.11
:37.72
Fellowship
Florida Derby
1:49.82
:37.77
Majesto
Florida Derby
1:49.65
:37.89
Brody’s Cause
Blue Grass Stakes
1:50.38
:37.94
My Man Sam
Blue Grass Stakes
1:50.68
:37.92
Gun Runner
Louisiana Derby
1:51.06
:38.04
Exaggerator
Santa Anita Derby
1:49.66
:38.09
Lani
UAE Derby
1:58.41 (9.5 furlongs)
:38.16
Cherry Wine
Blue Grass Stakes
1:50.70
:38.18
Mo Tom
Louisiana Derby
1:52.06
:38.21
Tom’s Ready
Louisiana Derby
1:51.81
:38.29
Dazzling Gem
Louisiana Derby
1:52.02
:38.83
Mohaymen
Florida Derby
1:50.49
:38.98
Trojan Nation
Wood Memorial
1:52.98
:39.10
Laoban
Blue Grass Stakes
1:51.26
:39.71
Mor Spirit
Santa Anita Derby
1:50.83
:40.00
Adventist
Wood Memorial
1:53.30
:40.43
Outwork
Wood Memorial
1:52.98
:40.66
Shagaf
Wood Memorial
1:53.64
:40.80
Danzing Candy
Santa Anita Derby
1:52.16
:42.04
As can be seen, Oscar Nominated and Azar — the top two finishers, respectively, in the Spiral Stakes — have recorded the fastest final three-eighths fractions so far, and by a very wide margin. However, it should be noted that the Spiral Stakes featured a very slow pace (1:13.83 for six furlongs) that left Oscar Nominated and Azar with plenty of fuel for the final three furlongs. The Spiral also is contested on a synthetic surface (Polytrack). Races on synthetic surfaces often shape up like races on grass, in which the pace frequently is pretty easy early and fast late.
CLOSE FINISH IN SPIRAL
Coady Photography
From this perspective, Nyquist deserves a lot of credit for running the final three furlongs of the Florida Derby in a solid :37.72 after running the first six furlongs in 1:11.39.
It’s also interesting to note that although Exaggerator’s late run in the Santa Anita Derby was visually impressive — in fact, it was breathtaking! — his fractional time of :38.09 ranks him only ninth-best so far, with one major prep race still to be run. His times are also well short of the standards set by recent Santa Anita Derby winners California Chrome and I’ll Have Another, who recorded final times of 1:47.52 and 1:47.88 along with final three-eighths times of :36.69 and :36.41, respectively.
Of course, California Chrome and I’ll Have Another had the benefit of racing on fast tracks, whereas Exaggerator’s Santa Anita Derby was held on a sloppy, sealed track. While Exaggerator clearly relished the sloppy conditions and ran a great race, it’s also possible that he could have gone faster over a dry track. Exaggerator received a Beyer Speed Figure of 103 for his Santa Anita Derby victory compared with a 94 for Nyquist’s Florida Derby win, which means, according to data in Andrew Beyer’s book Beyer on Speed, that Exaggerator was racing over a track that was one second slower over 1 1/8 miles than Gulfstream Park was for the Florida Derby. Had Santa Anita been playing just as fast as Gulfstream, Exaggerator’s theoretical final time would have been 1:48.66, with a theoretical final three furlongs in :37.74.
EXAGGERATOR POWERED TO AN IMPRESSIVE WIN IN 2016 SANTA ANITA DERBY
Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
It’s also important to remember that analyzing final three-eighths fractions is only one piece of the Kentucky Derby puzzle. There are lots of other factors to consider when handicapping the race, but given the significance of these fractions in recent years, it’s definitely something to keep an eye on.
Good luck with your handicapping!