Bram’s Take: Can Cupid’s Arrow Hit Arkansas Derby Target?
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Cupid photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Bob Baffert can’t be this lucky. He’s back at the scene of the last major prep that his trainee American Pharoah used in 2015 on the way to becoming the first Triple Crown winner in a generation. And now he’s back at the Arkansas Derby with Cupid, who as of a month ago, we weren’t sure was even of Kentucky Derby caliber. But Cupid went wire to wire in his lone stakes run at Oaklawn Park and now he’s hoping that the rest will be history, again.
I’m not rooting against Baffert pulling off a triple-double (Cupid repeating everything Pharoah did), I just see another storyline I like better.
The brothers Desormeaux beat up Baffert’s other Derby contender, Mor Spirit, last week by blowing away the Santa Anita Derby field with Exaggerator. Keith is the trainer, Kent is the jockey, making the siblings the third in history to bring the same horse to Churchill Downs together.
Technically, I’m not rooting against Baffert or Cupid or anyone for that matter. I just like stories, and for some reason Baffert winning six straight Triple Crown races (I’m know I’m reaching right now, just go with it) is not my personal preference over brothers winning the crown together.
Yes this is all about me. Me, me, me, me, me, me, me.
DON'T MISS THE ARKANSAS DERBY
Now for them. Here’s the field for the $1-million Arkansas Derby:
Discreetness: There was nothing discreet about his last two races. Brutalness. Now, there are only three horses in this field with more career earnings, so obviously tossing him off recent performance would be foolish, but I’m not picking this stock hoping for a fast return.
Cutacorner: He needs to cut some more corners ... like Discreetness, his last two races were awful with no in-race excuse for either. Unlike Discreetness, I don’t see any investment strategy here unless he’s running in a $33,000 allowance race.
Creator: Clearly, he is a contender here but it’s hard to come around to any line of thinking where you project a win. Seven career races, four places, one show. The second-place finishes are never by a nose or neck, either, so I don’t think Creator has the eye of the tiger.
Suddenbreakingnews: He pulls this off, and certainly it’s not out of the realm of possibility, that would be some real sudden breaking news. The times he ran in the Southwest Stakes to win at Oaklawn won’t be good enough here. So here’s the breaking news, literally, he cannot do his normal routine and be waaaaaayyyy off the pace.
Coady Photography
American Pioneer: Ugh, I hate these entries. What are you supposed to do with this? It’s his first real run in a stakes race so how would anyone know how he is expected to fare. His connections know, so if they wouldn’t mind giving me the skinny, I’d appreciate it.
Unbridled Outlaw: His last race, and best race, was run for a grand total of 20 grand. Is this a joke?
Dazzling Gem: This feels like an overreach by his connections. They got disappointed by a third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby, so they turn him around, grab a new jockey and race him three weeks later? This game plan sounds like a disaster.
Whitmore: His best last month wasn’t good enough against Cupid, whose best we may not have seen yet. Does he have another gear? He’ll need it to win this time. Clearly, he’s an exotic play, and clearly, he cannot be overlooked, but he doesn’t have my confidence as the eventual winner.
Luna de Loco: Appears way out of class here. His last race was a 1 1/16-mile win, but it was in 1:47. World-class horses do an extra sixteenth of a mile in that time. I’d be Luna de Loco to bet this horse.
Cupid: Old Bob Baffert had a major disappointment last week with Mor Spirit, so this looks like his best chance at the Derby repeat. The only question is did he peak a month ago? If he didn’t, he wins.
2016 REBEL STAKES
Gray Sky: This will be his seventh different jockey. It’s a gray sky for a reason, constantly stormy. Pass.
Gettysburg: In the trainer-jockey column, this guy gets the A+ of the bunch. Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez make this outside runner a more than legitimate threat to Cupid. But he has yet to show that he has these kind of goods. You really are playing the trainer-jockey and assuming they’ll figure out how to get enough out of him. He’s a gambler play for me. I’ll explain below.
The Pick: Steal my heart, Cupid. I think Baffert has timed this horse right. His win a month ago was eye-opening. Now, if he continues to climb up the improvement curve, he’ll be a real force for Nyquist to deal with next month at Churchill Downs.
As for Gettysburg, I’m only interested in the payoff here … 6-1 or higher, I’m throwing some money down. If he’s bet down any lower, I don’t see the reward for the risk.
The Full Milty: Just in case Cupid is not exactly what I hope he’ll be, I’m boxing a bunch of horses here. If he’s off, it’s wide open and there is a big ticket to be cashed. Trifecta Box: Discreetness, Creator, Suddenbreakingnews, American Pioneer, Whitmore, Cupid, Gettysburg.
$1-million Arkansas DerbySaturday, April 16, Oaklawn Park, Race 11, 7:18 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owner(s)
Odds
1
Discreetness
Jon Court
Jinks Fires
Xpress Thoroughbreds
20-1
2
Cutacorner
Alex Birzer
Jack Van Berg
Kay Stillman
50-1
3
Creator
Ricardo Santana Jr.
Steve Asmussen
WinStar Farm
10-1
4
Suddenbreakingnews
Luis Quinonez
Donnie Von Hemel
Samuel F. Henderson
5-1
5
American Pioneer
Rafael Bejarano
Wayne Catalano
Gary and Mary West
8-1
6
Unbridled Outlaw
Corey Lanerie
Dale Romans
Albaugh Family Stables
10-1
7
Dazzling Gem
Joseph Talamo
Brad Cox
Steve Landers Racing
12-1
8
Whitmore
Irad Ortiz Jr.
Ron Moquett
Robert LaPenta, Harry Rosenblum and Southern Springs Stables
9-2
9
Luna de Loco
Joe Bravo
Steve Asmussen
Calumet Farm
30-1
10
Cupid
Martin Garcia
Bob Baffert
Michael Tabor, Susan Magnier and Derrick Smith
2-1
11
Gray Sky
Ramon Vazquez
D. Wayne Lukas
Robert C. Baker & William L. Mack
30-1
12
Gettysburg
John Velazquez
Todd Pletcher
WinStar Farm
6-1