Cupid Vulnerable in Arkansas Derby

Recent maiden winner American Pioneer could spring the upset on Rebel Stakes winner Cupid in Saturday's Arkansas Derby. (Photo courtesy of Coady Photography)
The field for the 80th running of the Grade 1, $1-million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park is led by Cupid, winner of the last local prep in the series, the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes last month. Cupid led from start to finish for his second straight win and can win again, but there are 11 others wanting to get into the starting gate in Louisville, Ky. next month by earning the 100 points offered to the winner of this race.
Rebel runner-up Whitmore and third-place finisher Creator are two to consider, as well as Grade 2 Louisiana Derby third-place finisher Dazzling Gem. Gettysburg finished second in the Sunland Festival of Racing Stakes last month and could improve. Both American Pioneer and Luna de Loco won at Oaklawn recently and could be up to the task, while Suddenbreakingnews hopes to return to the form shown winning the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes before a fifth-place Rebel finish. Likewise, Discreetness won the Smarty Jones Stakes over the track in January before two poor finishes, most recently when seventh in the Rebel.
American Pioneer earned his first win last month in his most recent race, over the track and also his second career start. He improved from a debut 94 Equibase Speed Figure at a mile in January to a 98 figure in his most recent race, but could have run much faster as he was ridden out to victory with a mostly full tank of gas left at the end. To put that effort into perspective, Rebel winner and likely favorite Cupid earned a 100 figure breaking his maiden at the same distance American Pioneer did one month earlier. In a field with a number of horses being deep closers, this colt has a good tactical speed style and should be in the top four in the early stages, avoiding a lot of potential traffic trouble. With a lot of improving to do and getting Southern California nearly perennial leading jockey Rafael Bejarano, American Pioneer can post the mild upset in the Arkansas Derby and punch his ticket to the Kentucky Derby at the same time.
Creator closed from 14th and last in the Rebel to get third at the end. Although no threat to winner Cupid or runner-up Whitmore, Creator rushed past seven horses in the last quarter mile to earn a career-best 101 figure. Prior to that, Creator put in a powerful run from 11th to win by seven lengths with a 96 figure. Likely to take another step forward, another five point improvement puts him right at the 106 figure level Cupid was winning the Rebel. So, if Cupid does not move forward or gets into a battle for the early lead and is susceptible to be run down late, Creator may be just the horse to do it. 
CREATOR

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Cupid got the No. 3 post position in the Rebel, a race in which he led on faster than average fractions from start to finish. He was tackled by Whitmore with an eighth of a mile to go, going from 1 ½ lengths in front to a head, but repelled that one's bid to draw off again by a length and one-quarter. Having improved his figure in every race since his debut, culminating in a 106 figure last out, Cupid certainly would be no surprise if he won his second stakes race in a row. On the other hand, the 10 post doesn't help his chances here given his up-close early running style. 
Luna de Loco, Whitmore and Gettysburg appear next best, all with some chances to succeed but with small question marks as well. Luna de Loco comes from the barn of Steve Asmussen, who also saddles Creator. Luna de Loco won over the track last month with a 95 figure after two poor efforts in stakes and may have turned a corner so deserves respect as a contender. Whitmore did get within a neck of Cupid in the Rebel before his bid was repulsed, but he held second well with a career-best 104 figure. Gettysburg gets the extreme outside post, not the best for his early running style as his only win came when leading from start to finish, and in his most recent race he ran second from start to finish. However, he earned a career-best 98 figure last time out and he is the only horse in the field to have won at this 1 1/8-mile distance. 
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Cutacorner (103), Dazzling Gem (98), Discreetness (105), Gray Sky (98), Suddenbreakingnews (108) and Unbridled Outlaw (108). 
My selections:
American Pioneer
Creator
Cupid
$1-million Arkansas DerbySaturday, April 16, Oaklawn Park, Race 11, 7:18 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner(s)

Odds

1

Discreetness

Jon Court

Jinks Fires

Xpress Thoroughbreds

20-1

2

Cutacorner

Alex Birzer

Jack Van Berg

Kay Stillman

50-1

3

Creator

Ricardo Santana Jr.

Steve Asmussen

WinStar Farm

10-1

4

Suddenbreakingnews

Luis Quinonez

Donnie Von Hemel

Samuel F. Henderson

5-1

5

American Pioneer

Rafael Bejarano

Wayne Catalano

Gary and Mary West

8-1

6

Unbridled Outlaw

Corey Lanerie

Dale Romans

Albaugh Family Stables

10-1

7

Dazzling Gem

Joseph Talamo

Brad Cox

Steve Landers Racing

12-1

8

Whitmore

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Ron Moquett

Robert LaPenta, Harry Rosenblum and Southern Springs Stables

9-2

9

Luna de Loco

Joe Bravo

Steve Asmussen

Calumet Farm

30-1

10

Cupid

Martin Garcia

Bob Baffert

Michael Tabor, Susan Magnier and Derrick Smith

2-1

11

Gray Sky

Ramon Vazquez

D. Wayne Lukas

Robert C. Baker & William L. Mack

30-1

12

Gettysburg

John Velazquez

Todd Pletcher

WinStar Farm

6-1