Derby Trail: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down

Exaggerator galloped to a convincing win in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands are not quite as strong as they were last week. For this week’s edition, the focus is the impact of the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial Stakes, all on April 9, on the Kentucky Derby picture.
ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
This week’s edition ranks as the easiest I’ve ever put together. On one hand, you’ve got the winners of the three key Kentucky Derby prep races from last weekend, two rebounded to top form and the other needed (and delivered) a victory to punch his Kentucky Derby ticket. On the other hand, you had three heavy favorites lose by anywhere from four to 23 ¾ lengths. The key this week is sorting out what the results mean for the Derby in less than four weeks.
HEATING UP

1. Exaggerator

One of the most basic tenets of handicapping for the Kentucky Derby that I’ve learned over the years is to trust my eyes. On Saturday, my eyes told me Exaggerator looks like a major threat to win the Kentucky Derby. He charged from more than 16 lengths back after a half-mile and surged away to win by 6 ¼ lengths. Yes, the other horses in the race were crawling home, and that made Exaggerator’s final eighth of a mile look better than it probably was, but don’t forget he was also racing on a surface that closely resembled peanut butter. This is a colt whose run between a 103 and a 105 Equibase Speed Figure in each of his last four races on a variety of different surfaces — fast, muddy, sloppy. That consistency makes him dangerous because you know he’s going to run his race. He’s also quite versatile having rallied from way back and won the Grade 3 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes after setting the pace. By two-time Horse of the Year Curlin out of a stakes-placed sprinter, he’s also got a nice combination of stamina, speed and class. Outside of Nyquist, you could make the case that he’s the most likely to finish in the top three. 
2. Brody’s Cause

OK, you’ve got me. I sprained my ankle lunging off the Brody’s Cause bandwagon after his clunker in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 12. He was my Kentucky Derby pick coming into the season, and while he’s rebounded nicely to win the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes on April 9 at Keeneland, I’m not entirely back behind him. He’s definitely back inside my top 10 after dropping completely off the radar, plus he has a nice win at Churchill Downs and a very appealing finishing kick; I’m just not sure he’s fast enough. I do think he’s got a very realistic chance to pass a bunch of horses late and finish in the top five on the first Saturday in May, which makes him intriguing, but my hunch is he’s got too much ground to make up on the best of this year’s 3-year-old male division to be a true threat to win the Kentucky Derby. 
3. Outwork

I want to like Outwork more than I do — I’ve long been a fan — but boy did he look like he was running on fumes in the final strides of his Wood Memorial Stakes win on April 9. He’s 3-for-4 and clearly a very talented runner, but he was fully extended to hold off Trojan Nation, a 3-year-old who is winless in six races. On the bright side, Outwork cemented his spot in the Kentucky Derby and confirmed his class after finishing second to a horse I respect greatly (Destin) in his previous start in the Tampa Bay Derby. I also have to look at the muddy surface and wonder if maybe that makes the Wood Memorial a bit more challenging to accurately evaluate. He’s got tremendous cruising speed, which I really like in a Kentucky Derby hopeful, and with only four races, there’s room to grow. He’s also out of a Grade 1-placed daughter of 2003 Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker, Nonna Mia, who is a half-sister to multiple graded stakes winner Cairo Prince. Keep an eye on how he comes out of the Wood. If he flourishes and looks like he’s just starting to figure it out, give him some thought on Derby day. Otherwise, I think he might be up against it going 1 ¼ miles.
Honorable Mentions
My Man Sam finished second to Brody’s Cause in the Blue Grass Stakes and the aforementioned Trojan Nation took second in the Wood Memorial Stakes to cement their spots in the Kentucky Derby. Given that neither had a single point on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard before last weekend, both of them certainly are on the rise. You do yourself a disservice if you just dismiss a runner without doing due diligence. It would be easy to say that a maiden isn’t going to win the Kentucky Derby — and I don’t see Trojan Nation winning — but if you don’t consider him and he rallies to finish third and ruins a trifecta, you’ll end up kicking yourself. I don’t think that happens with Trojan Nation. My Man Sam, on the other hand, has the look of an intriguing longshot. Before the Blue Grass Stakes, he posted 108 and 110 Equibase Speed Figures. His 96 for the Blue Grass Stakes looks like a step back, but remember it was his first start in a stakes race in a 14-horse field and he passed 11 horses in the final three-eighths of a mile. I think he got a nice education in the Blue Grass, it doesn’t figure to have been especially taxing and it looks like he’ll be doing his best running late in the Kentucky Derby. 

COOLING DOWN

1. Zulu

There’s really no way to spin the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes than a disaster for Zulu. He left the starting gate as the 2.10-1 favorite, coming off a runner-up finish in the Xpressbet.com Fountain of Youth Stakes, and finished 12th of 14, beaten by 23 ¾ lengths. He’s gone from a buzz horse this winter to a legitimate Derby hopeful after the Fountain of Youth to out of consideration for the Kentucky Derby. You have to think we’ll see the good Zulu back before long, the one who posted a 111 Equibase Speed Figure in the Fountain of Youth, but it won’t be on the first Saturday in May for the first jewel of the Triple Crown. 
2. Danzing Candy

Coming into the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 9, Danzing Candy was ranked very high on many experts’ Kentucky Derby Top 10 lists, and for good reason. He’d won three straight by a combined margin of 11 lengths, he’d clicked off 102, 106 and 110 Equibase Speed figures in his three previous race and he entered the race off a powerhouse win in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes against many of the same horses entered in the Santa Anita Derby. One variable changed, however: the track condition. Rain in Southern California left the Santa Anita Park main track sloppy. It was the first time he’d ever raced on anything but a fast track, and Danzing Candy set the pace as expected but dropped an anchor in the stretch. He faded to fourth, beaten by 13 ¼ lengths, and earned an 83 Equibase Speed Figure that equaled the worst of his career. I’m willing to draw a line through the race and assume he hated the racetrack, but of major concern is whether a horse with only four previous starts got enough out of the Santa Anita Derby to be at his best on May 7 in the Kentucky Derby. So much has to go right for a 3-year-old to win the Kentucky Derby, and Danzing Candy’s final prep went wrong. He’s an extremely talented horse, but that’s tough to overcome. 
3. Shagaf

This is another instance where a competing on muddy racetrack for the first time clouds our interpretation of Shagaf’s performance in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial Stakes on April 9. Unbeaten entering the Wood Memorial and coming off a convincing win in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes, Shagaf left the starting gate as the heavy 1.90-1 favorite and just didn’t fire. It wasn’t a dismal performance — he didn’t give up and finished just four lengths behind the winner — but it’s tough to have a ton of confidence in a Derby runner coming off the worst race of his career. Of the three I have listed as cooling down, I’m least concerned with Shagaf. It was his first race on a track that wasn’t in ideal condition and he encountered some traffic trouble. Despite the adversity, he ran reasonably well on a surface he did not appear to relish. I think he’ll be fine for the Kentucky Derby, but I’m not sure he fast enough or got enough out of his final prep race to win on Kentucky Derby day. The good news is, if you liked Shagaf before the Wood Memorial his odds for the Derby just got a whole lot better.