Dan’s Double: An Upset Pick for the Arkansas Derby
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When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Dan Tordjman, America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent, is one of the brightest young minds in the game.
Each week, Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup.
Come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.
Saturday, April 16
Oaklawn Park, Race 11, Arkansas Derby, 7:18 p.m. ET
#3 Creator (10-1): This colt by Tapit was a $440,000 purchase as a yearling and, after perhaps not living up to expectations early on, appears to finally be coming into his own. He took a major step forward last out in the Rebel Stakes. Jockey Ricardo Santana wisely positioned him to get the jump on the other closers in that race, which included Cherry Wine and returning foe Suddenbreakingnews. What I like most is that he finished faster than Cupid, who won the race, and he may have potentially gotten to him with added distance — which he gets here in the Arkansas Derby, stretching out to a mile and an eighth. The faster they go, the better for Creator. It appears that Cupid is the fastest of the bunch and if he’s able to establish an easy lead, that certainly puts a cap on some of Creator’s upside. But for the price we’re going to get on the horse, I think Creator represents some strong value in this race and should be a strong each way (win and place) wager.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$5 win and place on #3 Creator ($10)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$.50 trifecta box 3,10 with 3,10 with all ($10)
$1 exacta box 3,5,10 ($6)
$3 win, place and show on #3 Creator ($9)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$1 exacta box 3,4,5,10 ($12)
$.50 trifecta 3,10 with 3,4,5,10 with 3,4,5,6,8,9,10,12 ($18)
$10 win and $5 place and show on #3 Creator ($20)
Sunday, April 17
Keeneland Race Course, Race 4, 2:45 p.m. ET
#4 Perpetrator (Odds 5-1): This will be the first time going a mile for this horse, who is a son of multiple turf-routing graded stakes winner Sidney’s Candy. In two progressive efforts sprinting on the turf, Perpetrator has shown the kind of early foot to suggest he’ll be on the lead or sitting just off of it in this stretch-out spot. The pace is a slight mystery, to be fair, with Grey Fox having flashed good speed on debut, while stretching out here himself. But there’s still plenty of upside to Perpetrator, at what should be a square price. Making the horse even more appealing is that leading turf jockey Florent Geroux takes the mount and he scores at a solid 26 percent when up for trainer Steve Asmussen.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$4 to win and place on #4 Perpetrator ($8)
$1 exacta box 1 and 4 ($2)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$1 exacta box 1,4, 8 ($6)
$.50 trifecta 1,4 with 1,4,6,8,12 with 1,4,6,8,12 ($12)
$2 win, place and show on #4 Perpetrator ($6)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$1 exacta key box 4 with all ($22)
$1 trifecta 1,4 with 1,4 with all ($10)
$5 win, place and show on #4 Perpetrator ($15)
ROI year to date: $2,010.20 wagered/$2,591.55 returned (+$581.35 YTD)