Taking a Stand Against Swipe in Lexington Stakes
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Direct Message has a chance to upset Swipe at a big price on Saturday in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland Race Course. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
The final two prep races for the 2016 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands will be run on Saturday, including the $150,000, Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.
The 1 1/16-mile race has drawn an intriguing and evenly matched field of 10 horses, led by the well-regarded Swipe (#4). Last year, the Birdstone colt finished second to unbeaten champion Nyquist in four straight graded stakes races, including the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but minor knee surgery after the Breeders’ Cup interrupted his training schedule and has prevented him from racing early this year. The Lexington Stakes will mark his 2016 debut, and a victory could potentially serve as a springboard to the Kentucky Derby. But is he ready to win off the long layoff?
Swipe has posted a nice series of workouts in preparation for this race, including six furlongs (three-quarters of a mile) in 1:13 on April 2, but his slightly expedited training schedule means that he could be in need of a race before returning to peak form. Thanks to Nyquist’s reputation, Swipe will very likely be a heavy favorite in the Lexington Stakes, but since this is his first race of the season, I think it could be worth playing against him for the top spot.
Collected (#10) brings plenty of recent experience to the Lexington Stakes, having run three times this year with victories in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes and the Sunland Festival of Racing Stakes. His combination of front-running speed and ability to rate off the lead should serve him well. He will be ridden by the three-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Javier Castellano, but Collected has drawn the far outside post position and could be in for a wide trip. In addition, trainer Bob Baffert hasn’t had the best luck in the Lexington Stakes — he’s run three horses there over the last ten years and all were beaten, including graded stakes winner Castaway.
Therefore, I’ll also give a lot of respect to Direct Message (#2). He’s kept good company throughout his career, running against horses like Rafting, Gift Box, Matt King Coal, and Gettysburg. Last time out, Direct Message won a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight race at Gulfstream Park by 1 ¼ lengths with a 91 Beyer Speed Figure. He will be ridden by Luis Saez, who is off to a great start at this Keeneland meet with seven wins from 24 starters, and drawing post-position two should enable Direct Message to utilize his early speed without getting caught too wide on the turns. At 15-1 on the morning line, I think he’s worth playing on top.
Two other candidates for the exotics are Synchrony (#5), who won his second career start last year at Keeneland, and Big Squeeze (#6), who has finished in the exacta in all three of his races. Synchrony, in particular, is an appealing longshot since he showed a lot of talent and consistency in his first four starts, including a third-place finish in the Smarty Jones Stakes, before running sixth in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes. I think that was a better effort than it appears to be at first glance, and I think Synchrony can rebound nicely in the Lexington.
SYNCHRONY AFTER WINNING A NOVEMBER RACE AT CHURCHILL
Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Wagering Strategy A: Exactas
$6 exacta: 10 with 2,4 ($12)
$4 exacta: 2 with 4,10 ($8)
$2 exacta: 2,10 with 5,6 ($4)
Wagering Strategy B: Trifectas
$2 trifecta: 10 with 2,4 with 2,4,5,6 ($12)
$1 trifecta: 2 with 4,10 with 4,5,6,10 ($6)
$0.50 trifecta: 2,10 with 5,6 with 2,4,5,6,10 ($8)
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
$150,000 Lexington StakesApril 16, Keeneland Race Course, Race 9, 4:59 p.m. ET1 1/16 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owner(s)
Odds
1
One More Round
Jose Lezcano
A. C. Avila
Roddy J. Valente and Charles Casale
30-1
2
Direct Message
Luis Saez
Thomas Albertrani
Godolphin
15-1
3
Lomcevak
Jesus Lopez Castanon
Jack Frost
Jack Frost
15-1
4
Swipe
Flavien Prat
J. Keith Desormeaux
Big Chief Racing, James C. Justice and Billy R. Shelton
9-5
5
Synchrony
Shaun Bridgmohan
Donnie K. Von Hemel
Pin Oak Stable
10-1
6
Big Squeeze
Chris Landeros
Garry W. Simms
Burr J. Travis, Jay A. Morgeson, Philip J. Morgeson, Steve Weston, et al.
10-1
7
Call the Colonel
Julien R. Leparoux
Jon M. Cowan
C. J. Equine Service
20-1
8
Riker
Florent Geroux
Mark E. Casse
Team Valor International, Gary Barber and Tucci Stables
6-1
9
Yo Carm
Robby Albarado
Chris M. Block
Fortino Inc.
15-1
10
Collected
Javier Castellano
Bob Baffert
Speedway Stables
2-1