Belmont Field Rundown: Can Chrome Be Beat?

Wicked Strong is second choice on the morning line and Bob Ehalt thinks he may have a chance to upset the Triple Crown. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)

It has comes down to this:

If California Chrome can complete one lap around Belmont Park on Saturday and cross the finish line first he will be crowned as one of the sport’s greatest champions.

Anything else and he’ll be remembered alongside 12 other horses since 1978 who have been categorized as “near-misses,” a collection of racing’s great teases who prevailed in the first two legs of the Triple Crown but not the third.

To date, there’s been little to indicate anyone in this 3-year-old crop has what it takes to remove the luster from “The Chrome.” He won convincingly in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, though each time he enjoyed a splendid trip.

Now, he’ll face his greatest challenge at a mile and a half distance, while giving away an edge to an assortment of rivals who in some cases will have better rest and/or experience over the racetrack.

The betting odds are 3-5 that he’ll become the long-awaited 12th Triple Crown winner, but it surely will not be an easy task for him in a race known as “The Test of the Champion.”

To put that in perspective, here’s a look at the 10 challengers for California Chrome:
1. Medal Count 20-1

Should like the mile and a half distance, but still has to prove he’s more than a grass/synthetic horse. He had some traffic issues while finishing eighth in the Kentucky Derby but does that explain away a 7 ½-length loss to California Chrome in the Derby? Probably not.

2. California Chrome 3-5
See above. He’s the one to beat.

3. Matterhorn 30-1
Really can’t find a reason why he’s here. His lone win came in a maiden race and he was fourth, beaten 6 ¼ lengths in the Peter Pan, his first stakes try. Maybe the distance will help, but a more likely scenario is that 12 furlongs will only tack on more lengths to the gap separating him from the winner. Trainer Todd Pletcher won last year’s Belmont with a 13-1 shot named Palace Malice, but he looks like a 6-5 shot compared to this year’s longshot.

4. Commanding Curve 15-1
Shapes up as the Rodney Dangerfield of this crop. Was an overlay at 37-1 in the Derby when he closed quickly in the final furlong to grab second. Now he’s 15-1 which seems generous, considering he’s had five weeks to rebound from a strong effort in the Derby and he’s been working well for trainer Dallas Stewart since his breakthrough effort at Churchill Downs. Perhaps folks remember last year when Stewart gave Derby runner-up Golden Soul five weeks off after the Run for the Roses and he finished ninth.

5. Ride On Curlin 12-1
Took advantage of a weaker field to jump from seventh in the Derby to second in the Preakness. There are still doubts about his willingness to win a Grade 1 based on that career record of 2 for 11 but he certainly deserves heavy consideration for the trifecta. He’s a tough, hard-knockin’ runner with some experience over the track – a third in last year’s Champagne – and should be fine at the distance. Fine enough to win? We’ll see.

6. Matuszak 30-1
Have to love him if you’re a longtime fan of the Oakland Raiders – or the movie North Dallas Forty. As for betting “The Tooz” in the Belmont, well, you can use him as part of a wheel with everyone in the field. He’s trained by Bill Mott, which is always a positive, but his runner-up finish to Kid Cruz in the Tesio loses its appeal after that one finished eighth in the Preakness.

7. Samraat 20-1
New York-bred who hasn’t been disgraced since stepping up into Grade 1 company, but he also hasn’t done much to indicate he can beat this type of company. He won five in a row until finishing second in the Wood Memorial and then was a decent fifth in the Derby. Had the obligatory excuse in a field 19 as he was bumped while racing wide on the first turn. Should appreciate running in his home base of New York, but will need major improvement to handle these at a mile and a half.

8. Commissioner 20-1
Was second in the Peter Pan and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The last Belmont winner who ran in the Peter Pan was Drosselmeyer, who was second in the stepping stone prep. It also helps that he’s trained by Pletcher, who has already won the Belmont twice.  On the down side, he may have benefitted from a wet track in the Peter Pan and he’s hit the board only once in three other graded stakes appearances.

9. Wicked Strong 6-1
Was the second choice in the Derby and will most likely fill that role in the Belmont. He was fourth in the Derby, but could have been closer if not for running into more traffic jams than a Los Angeles motorist at rush hour. He broke his maiden at Belmont last fall and the Wood winner’s brilliant recent works indicate he loves Belmont and is ready to put the Derby behind him. He’s temperamental and loading into the starting gate directly in front of 100,000 screaming fans might unhinge him, but if he keeps his cool and runs like he did in the Wood, he’ll be tough to handle.

10. General a Rod 20-1
Joins California Chrome and Ride On Curlin as the only ones hardy enough to race in all three legs of the Triple Crown. Speaks volumes for his durability, but he finished behind both of them each time. Had some excuses each time, but nothing compelling enough to stoke a belief that he beat can horses like this at a mile and a half distance. Let’s face it, it’s just not a good year to be an A Rod.

11. Tonalist 8-1
Won the Peter Pan, which is a nice springboard to the Belmont. He’s lightly raced and may be ready to peak at a highly opportune time. Running in the mud adds an asterisk to the Peter Pan win, but he likes to stay close to the pace which is a running style that usually works well in the Belmont. His owner, Robert S. Evans, is the son of the late Thomas M. Evans, who owned Pleasant Colony, the 1981 Derby-Preakness winner that finished a disappointing third in the Belmont. In a twist of fate, perhaps the younger Evans gets to spoil a Triple Crown bid 33 years later.