Best Bets of the Weekend: Worthy Favorite, Live Longshot at Keeneland
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America’s Best Racing and handicapper (and avid gambler) Monique Vág team up to provide horseplayers with a regular best bets of the weekend feature blog that will run on Fridays.
Each week, Vág will provide at least one “Best Bet” of the weekend, ideal for a win bet. The post also will include some combination of additional bets for the weekend.
For some posts, Vág will try to identify a longshot play of the weekend, a nice opportunity to swing for the fences on a win bet or to take a shot with a show bet. She also will look for strong exacta plays for the weekend or occasionally try to spot a nice opportunity for other wagers.
This Weekend’s Bets
Best Bet
Saturday, Race 3, Keeneland Race Course, 1:41 p.m. ET
#5 Kareena: I hate selecting my “Best Bet” out of a maiden race, however this one looks too sharp to ignore. She narrowly missed in her first career start after dueling three wide for the lead early on. She adds Lasix (furosemide) and ships in from Gulfstream Park. She meets a questionable field with many in here making their racing debut. She’ll definitely be a short price and deserving of favorite status, but her first race was too good to ignore. Skip the WIN wagers because her price will be far too short and consider singling her in your exotic sequences.
Best Bet
Saturday, Race 7, Aqueduct, Plenty of Grace Stakes, 4:38 p.m. ET
#4 Strike Charmer: Takes a drop in class today after exiting a Grade 3 race in early January. She’s quick, has tons of turf experience and shows a sharp half-mile workout on April 8. She’ll most likely try to race close to the pace, and I think she draws best to work out an ideal, stalking trip.
Longshot Play
Saturday, Race 8, Keeneland Race Course, Giant’s Causeway Stakes, 4:26 p.m. ET
#1 Eden Prairie: I can’t rationalize the 12-1 morning-line odds on this mare. She’s used to racing much longer distances, but in the past she has consistently flashed good early speed. She narrowly missed winning last time in a non-graded stakes race when shortening to 5 1/2 furlongs. She tries the same distance again and probably will be on the lead or very close to the early pace. In a race with no clear standout, if she goes off anywhere near her 12-1 odds, she will be far too good to resist.
Exacta Box
Sunday, Race 8, Aqueduct, Distaff Handicap, 5:11 p.m. ET
#4 Cavorting: Hard to fault this filly. She’s won races going six furlongs and also a mile, however I do think she prefers the latter. She’s won against much, much tougher, so not racing in more than three months is not problematic for me. Her workouts look good, she has regular rider Irad Oritz Jr. aboard like all of her previous starts and she has shown versatility in racing style. I love her chances.
#5 Bar of Gold: This filly probably needed a start in 2016, so I expect her to improve second start off the layoff. She’s been second best twice to my top selection, Cavorting, twice. Not much is showing me that she’ll finally be able to get the better of that rival, however, if she is going beat Cavorting, in my opinion, the shorter the distance the better her chances.