Derby Trail: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down

Creator announced his Kentucky Derby candidacy with a come-from-behind win in Saturday's Arkansas Derby. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire unless noted)
This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands are not quite as strong as they were last week.
For this week’s edition, the focus is the impact of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and Grade 3 Lexington Stakes, both on April 16, on the Kentucky Derby picture.
ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
This edition will be the penultimate one before the Kentucky Derby. We’ll check back in on May 2 with the final pre-Derby analysis of the entrants’ final preparations for the first jewel of the Triple Crown.
HEATING UP

1. Creator

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Creator ran a huge race to win the Arkansas Derby at 11.60-1 odds, so it’s no shock he takes the top spot here after going from an afterthought in the 3-year-old division to a Kentucky Derby starter. More than that, I think Creator has a shot to win the first jewel of the Triple Crown. He’s got a very solid foundation, has improved with distance and is really getting good at the perfect time with a 101 Equibase Speed Figure for his third-place finish in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes and a new career-best 103 for the last-to-first Arkansas Derby win. I prefer horses with tactical speed for the Kentucky Derby, but deep closers like Creator have a chance to win if the pace is hot and I like to fill out the bottom of my trifecta and superfecta with closers. Creator also has a nice pedigree. He’s by two-time leading sire Tapit out of Peruvian champion Morena, who was multiple graded stakes-placed in the U.S. My concerns with Creator is that he could regress off of a career-best performance coming back on only three weeks rest and he’s reportedly very high strung, which can be a big issue when parading in front of 150,00 or so mint julep-loosened fans. As a deep closer, he’ll also need the benefit of clean trip, which can be problematic in a 20-horse field.
2. Suddenbreakingnews

It was nice to see Southwest Stakes winner Suddenbreakingnews rebound from a fifth-place finish in the Rebel Stakes by closing for second in the Arkansas Derby. I thought Suddenbreakingnews regressed off of a monster effort in the Southwest, which was a 21-point jump to a 108 from his previous best Equibase Speed Figure, and also encountered enough trouble to think he could reasonably bounce back. He did just that in the most important race of his life. Like Creator, Suddenbreakingnews is a closer who needs some racing luck when navigating a path from near the back of a 20-horse field, but I feel confident he’ll be flying late and his trainer, Donnie Von Hemel, is a masterful horseman who doesn’t have the name recognition of a Todd Pletcher or Bob Baffert so the price should be right.
3. Mo Tom

The posterboy for bad luck on the Triple Crown trail was the beneficiary of a little bit of good luck this week as Cupid, who had a spot in the Kentucky Derby field locked up, will miss the race to have a procedure to correct a breathing problem. That moved Mo Tom into the 20th spot. When a horse’s past performances read “checked sharply” and “checked badly” for his last two starts, you know he had reasonable excuses, but you do have to wonder if maybe he just has a knack for finding trouble. Mo Tom has plenty of natural ability. He’s won three of seven starts with three thirds and his only unplaced finished came in the Louisiana Derby when he was essentially stopped cold in the stretch when he was just finding his best stride. The Lecomte Stakes winner is worth a second look on Derby day if he’s a nice price.
Honorable Mention
Collected

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Collected’s victory in the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes would have moved him into the top three here, but his connections opted to target the Preakness Stakes instead of the Kentucky Derby. I jumped ship on Collected after a fourth-place finish in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes, but I’ve since discovered that I was premature in dismissing him. The Southwest came on a track rated as good and it was his first race on an “off” track. Since then, he won the Sunland Park Festival of Racing Stakes by two lengths and the Lexington Stakes by four lengths. I never liked Collected’s pedigree for the 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby, but at a sixteenth of a mile shorter, the Preakness might be an ideal spot.

COOLING DOWN

1. Cupid

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Cupid vaulted to near the top of many Kentucky Derby lists when he powered to a clear win in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes. He disappointed when 10th, beaten by 11 ¼ lengths in the Arkansas Derby, but after the race it was discovered that an entrapped epiglottis caused the dull effort. He underwent a surgical procedure to correct the breathing problem, but trainer Bob Baffert said he’d miss the Kentucky Derby and possibly would be rerouted to the Preakness Stakes. I don’t think we saw the true Cupid in the Arkansas Derby; expect a much better race in his next start.
2. Swipe

Swipe finished second to Nyquist in his final four starts of 2015, and that sequence, which included three Grade 1 races, looked even better when Nyquist won his first two starts of 2016, including dusting highly regarded Mohaymen in the Xpressbet.com Florida Derby. In his first start since having a chip removed from his ankle, Swipe finished a disappointing sixth, beaten by 12 lengths, as the 2-1 favorite in the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes. Swipe probably needed the race to get back in top condition, but the dud might cost him a shot in one of the Triple Crown races. Figure he’d need to run a strong race as a prep for a classic race, so unless he takes the Peter Pan path to the Belmont Stakes, which is an option, it’s unlikely we’ll see him again on the Triple Crown trail.
3. Laoban

One of the big losers of last weekend didn’t even race. The Arkansas Derby result that included Creator leapfrogging into the field as well as Suddenbreakingnews and Whitmore securing spots essentially relegated Toyota Blue Grass Stakes fourth-place finish Laoban to the Preakness Stakes. Sitting on the outside looking in for the Derby, trainer Eric Guillot said, “Preakness, here we come.”