Best Bets of the Weekend: A Sunday Surprise
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America’s Best Racing and handicapper (and avid gambler) Monique Vág team up to provide horseplayers with a regular best bets of the weekend feature blog that will run on Fridays.
Each week, Vág will provide at least one “Best Bet” of the weekend, ideal for a win bet. The post also will include some combination of additional bets for the weekend.
For some posts, Vág will try to identify a longshot play of the weekend, a nice opportunity to swing for the fences on a win bet or to take a shot with a show bet. She also will look for strong exacta plays for the weekend or occasionally try to spot a nice opportunity for other wagers.
This Weekend’s Bets
Longshot Play
Saturday, Race 8, Keeneland Race Course, 4:57 p.m. ET
#5 Hang On Annie: This filly has only raced on the all-weather track at Turfway Park, so it's difficult to gauge how she will perform on a dirt main track. She broke sharply in her most recent start and led for most of the race. I think the shortening in distance down to seven furlongs will suit her well. She adds Lasix (furosemide) and receives a huge jockey upgrade to Gary Stevens.
Best Bet
Saturday, Race 8, Los Alamitos, Great Lady M.Stakes, 8:28 pm. ET
#2 Fantastic Style: This filly has won her last three races. She's been exceptionally impressive and seems to be at her best under Rafael Bejarano, who has been aboard for all three wins in the streak. She's never been out of the money and her Beyer Speed Figures are steadily increasing from her 2015 days. She's in pretty tough here, but if she races true to form, I think she wins this one handily.
Best Bet
Sunday, Race 3, Aqueduct, New York Stallion Stakes, 2:26 p.m. ET
#1 Sudden Surprise: Jockey John Velazquez and trainer Todd Pletcher have been winning a lot recently, so sometimes It's advantageous to follow the hot connections. This colt comes off two really sharp workouts especially the four furlongs at Belmont in :48 flat (fastest of 55 at the distance). He likes to win and his stakes experience is clearly an asset. He'll most likely be uncontested on the lead, and it looks like his race to win or lose.
Exacta Box
Sunday, Race 9, Keeneland Race Course, 5:30 p.m. ET
#4 Conquest Sabre Cat: This colt has shown his best races on turf, so I think he fits well in here. He never seems to break sharp, so I like the 1 1/16-mile distance. He'll be closing late, that's for sure, and his recent workouts and last race indicate to me he's inching closer to breaking his maiden. He has a great shot.
#6 Kismet's Heels: This is one vulnerable favorite. He was closing really well in his last start going the same distance in a Grade 3 race. He willl clearly appreciate the class drop as well as racing once again longer than a mile. He'll be a super short price (6-5 on the morning line) and making his move in deep stretch from way, way back. Others will be attempting to close from far back and will have a couple lengths advantage. I can't accept that short of a price.
#10 Gio's Calling: I think a lot is resting on how well this one breaks from the starting gate. The other two rivals I have selected seem to show a better and faster closing kick, so it's important for this one to be positioned nearer to the front. I think with the other two coming from far back, there's always that fear of not being able to find racing room or having to race too wide. I think that's where this one holds an edge for me. He's certainly capable.