Los Ponies Longshots: Second Time's a Charm
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Welcome to Los Ponies Longshots! Each week, America’s Best Racing’s Southern California correspondent Jose Contreras – Los Ponies to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide two or three longshots at 8-to-1 odds or better on the morning line that he identifies as strong value bets. Contreras also will map out a betting strategy for how to play his selections and keep track of his return on investment (ROI).
Stop back each week if you love a longshot!
Saturday, Race 7, Los Alamitos Race Course, 7:58 p.m. ET
#3 Cold Bay (12-1): This gelding had a good second over this daytime oval late last year against a tougher level of competition. He isn’t facing any standouts today and I like that he’s coming into this race from a bit of a break. He shows a good workout in preparation for today and this jockey has been aboard for two of Cold Bay's eight lifetime wins.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$1 Exacta: 3 with 2,5,6,7,8 ($5)
$1 Exacta: 2,5,6,7,8 with 3 ($5)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$10 Win Cold Bay ($10)
$5 Place Cold Bay ($5)
$1 Exacta: 3 with 2,5,6,7,8 ($5)
$1 Exacta: 2,5,6,7,8 with 3 ($5)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$10 Win Cold Bay ($10)
$1 Trifecta: 3 with 2,5,6,7,8 with 2,5,6,7,8 ($20)
$1 Trifecta: 2,5,6,7,8 with 3 with 2,5,6,7,8 ($20)
Sunday, Race 9, Keeneland, 5:30 p.m. ET
#5 Baires Boy (8-1): He worked well at Keeneland prior to his last race where he was making his turf debut. That effort wasn’t too bad considering it was his first try around two turns and that he was on the far outside post in a field of 12, with a short run into the first turn. He gets a better post position today and I think he will improve in his second turf try.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$1 Exacta: 5 with 1,4,6,7,10 ($5)
$1 Exacta: 1,4,6,7,10 with 5 ($5)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$10 Win on Baires Boy ($10)
$5 Place on Baires Boy ($5)
$1 Exacta: 5 with 1,4,6,7,10 ($5)
$1 Exacta: 1,4,6,7,10 with 5 ($5)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$8 Win on Baires Boy ($8)
$1 Exacta box 1,5,7,10 ($12)
$.50 Trifecta: 5 with 1,4,6,7,10 with 1,4,6,7,10 ($10)
$.50 Trifecta: 1,4,6,7,10 with 5 with 1,4,6,7,10 ($10)
$.50 Trifecta: 1,4,6,7,10 with 1,4,6,7,10 with 5 ($10)
ROI Year to date: $2465 wagered/$768.50 returned