Derby Battle: Tapit vs. Uncle Mo

Among the subplots of this year's Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) is a stallion showdown between a proven veteran and a young gun.

Leading sire Tapit   and top second-crop sire Uncle Mo   will likely be represented by three starters each in the Derby gate, more than any other sires with Derby contenders this year. Tapit's runners are Mohaymen, Creator, and Lani, while Uncle Mo will be represented Nyquist, Outwork, and Mo Tom.

On the surface, this head-to-head between Tapit, Gainesway's star son of Pulpit who was the top North American sire in 2014 and 2015, and Ashford Stud's Uncle Mo, a son of Indian Charlie, appears lopsided.

Tapit, in the middle of his 12th season, has sired 77 black-type winners, which includes 48 graded stakes winners and six champions.

His 2016 crop of 3-year-olds were also produced from an exceptionally talented group of mares. The dams of Tapits' 2013 foals had an average 11.32 Class Performance Index, an indicator of how good the mares were collectively as runners. A runner with a 2.0 CPI, for example, has earned twice the average for all horses of the same sex, same age, and running in the same country. The only sire with a stronger book by CPI was Bernardini  , who had a 12.93 CPI. Another indicator of dam quality is the Comparable Index (CI), which is like the Average Earnings Index for stallions but considers at the average earnings of dams' progeny who are by other stallions. The CI indicates how good the dams are as producers regardless of to whom they're bred. Tapit's CI for the 2013 crop was 4.44, tied with Street Cry and Bernardini and higher than Medaglia d'Oro. Distorted Humor   was the CI leader for the 2013 crop at 5.22.

By comparison, Uncle Mo had the highest CI of his sire class with a 2.92 and had the third-highest CPI at 3.38, behind Misremembered   (4.24) and Gio Ponti   (3.46).

Looking at collective performance statistics for the Derby contenders, Tapit still seems to have an edge—but not big one.

A comparison of Tapit's and Uncle Mo's Derby contenders in graded stakes this year reveals the following:

•    Both sets of contenders have each collectively won four graded stakes and two grade I stakes,

•    Tapit's runners produced an average Equibase/Timeform speed rating of 106 in their graded stakes performances, and an average of 110 in their graded stakes wins.

•    Uncle Mo's runners produced an average Equibase Speed Rating of 102 in all graded stakes performances and an average of 104 in graded stakes wins.

•    The average winning margin of Tapit's contenders is 1.94 compared with Uncle Mo's average of 1.43.

Because Uncle Mo is a second-crop sire, a comparison of average winning distance for the two sires is meaningless. Uncle Mo's progeny simply have not had enough opportunity yet to prove themselves at distances over a mile. Looking at the average winning distance of the TrueNicks sire line and broodmare sire cross, however, shows Tapit's runners with AWDs ranging from 7.42 to 7.54 furlongs. The AWD for the cross of Uncle Mo's runners ranges from seven to 6.35 furlongs.

"I think you have to give the nod to Tapit because he's proven and his success has been remarkable anyway you look at it," said Michael Hernon, director of sales at Gainesway, where Tapit has stood his entire stud career. "Uncle Mo has established a high level of credibility but it is early days for him. Tapit has set a really high bar."

Naturally no one can challenge Tapit's class and dominance over the past two years, in which he's set consecutive records for North American progeny earnings ($16,813,536 for 2014; $18,397,691 for 2015). 

Uncle Mo's chances to get a Derby winner in his first crop, however, can't be casually dismissed. The young sire has had a remarkably strong start at stud, getting 12 black-type stakes winners so far, five graded stakes winners, and one champion. His star performer, Nyquist, was last year's outstanding 2-year-old male and remains undefeated. Nyquist also trounced Tapit's son Mohaymen in the April 2 Xpressbet.com Florida Derby (gr. I).

Since 1935, 15 sires have had gotten a Kentucky Derby winner in their first crop. Look for more on this topic in Frank Angst's feature in the May 7 issue of Blood-Horse.

Pedigree expert Ed Rosen, who is a consultant to owner/breeder Mike Repole (who raced Uncle Mo and still owns part of the stallion) said what makes Uncle Mo a standout is the success he's had with a wide variety of mares.

"He was bred to a tremendous number of mares that first year, so you get the gamut of types—speed, distance, grass--but the fact that all the quality came through is what's most significant; the broad spectrum of his success," he said.

Rosen also is not concerned about Uncle Mo's relatively low AWD.

"Very few horses in America are bred to go a mile and a quarter anymore," Rosen said. "The good ones are bred to go a mile and an eighth and it's the courage or heart, or whatever that intangible is, that gets the other eighth of a mile."

Kentucky bloodstock consultant Jim Schenk agreed, saying the determination displayed by Uncle Mo's runners should carry them the distance.

"I don't see why they couldn't go that far," he said. "They try so hard and they all run; they will run as hard and fast as they can."

Schenk said he also sees that same unbending will to win among Tapit's progeny. He believes this competitive nature is the key reason any sire is successful.

"And you have no idea where it is coming from," Schenk said. "The thing about both those horses, they get sound horses and they absolutely run. They all have that look and are amazing horses. They actually are very similar.

"Tapit is Pulpit but better. Uncle Mo is sounder than Indian Charlie. They both captured the brilliance of their sires and are producing sounder horses," he said.

When Rosen was asked who he thought would prevail in the Tapit/Uncle Mo head-to-head, he reached back to a comment heard regularly from one of his mentors, the Maryland trainer John Tammaro.

"John said it all the time: 'Horses make liars out of people. You should never talk about a horse until at least one year after he's dead.' But with Uncle Mo, three Derby starters in your first crop is pretty impressive. I've run out of superlatives," Rosen said.