Fresh Horses Plentiful in 2016 Kentucky Derby

The three trainers of Louisiana Derby (gr. II) runners expected to start in the May 7 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) are confident the six weeks between races will not be a problem for their horses.

Gun Runner won the 1 1/8-mile race March 26 at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots while Tom's Ready secured his Kentucky Derby spot by finishing second. Mo Tom finished fourth, which would provide him just enough points to make this year's Derby field. While just two horses in the past 60 years have won the Derby after making their previous start six weeks or more before the classic, the trainers of this year's Louisiana Derby runners are confident their horses can be at their best.

Steve Asmussen, trainer of Winchell Thoroughbreds and Three Chimneys Farm's Gun Runner, said after the Louisiana Derby that the son of Candy Ride   works hard in the mornings and gets a lot out of that exercise. Asmussen said Gun Runner has improved since the Louisiana Derby.

"We feel like we're in the process of (getting better)," Asmussen said. "The Louisiana Derby was a nice step in the right direction and we're expecting another step in the right direction."

Dallas Stewart said with G M B Racing's Tom's Ready starting in four races from Dec. 18-March 26 at the Fair Grounds meet, he didn't feel like the son of More Than Ready   needed another start before the Kentucky Derby.

"Tom's Ready ran four times this winter and he had some hard breezes going into those races—we wanted to win them all," Stewart said. "We had some serious works. He had a lot of work this winter, a lot of racing—he didn't miss a dance—and a lot of work. The only other race we could have run him in was the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) (three weeks later) but that would've been overkill."

Tom Amoss, trainer of G M B Racing's Mo Tom, noted that some of the success of Derby winners who prepped in races closer to the classic could be attributed to a different racing schedule in past years.

"I don't think there's one guy out there who's worried about how much time his horses have going into the Kentucky Derby," Amoss said. "With all due respect, I think that's a media-created thing that seems to have some statistics behind it but the statistics are flawed because it's all about when the preps are scheduled and that's always changing."

Those changes can be seen in a run of recent Derby winners who previously raced five weeks before the Louisville classic. When Barbaro won the 2006 Derby five weeks after his Florida Derby (gr. I) score, he became the first horse since Needles—50 years earlier—to win the Derby off a racing break of five weeks or more. But since Barbaro's win, four more Derby winners entered off a racing break of at least 34 days: Big Brown   in 2008, Mine That Bird in 2009, Animal Kingdom   in 2011, and Orb   in 2013.

While that run would seem to erase any concerns of a five-week racing layoff before the Derby, the six-week racing layoff is new territory. Since 1929 only Animal Kingdom and Needles have won the Derby off a racing break of at least six weeks.

Of the 20 horses entered in this year's Derby, nine have not raced in five weeks or more. Nyquist, Mohaymen, and Majesto last raced in the Florida Derby five weeks ago, while Oscar Nominated hasn't raced since winning the Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Spiral Stakes (gr III) the same day. The three Louisiana Derby horses and UAE Derby (UAE-II) winner Lani haven't raced in six weeks. 

Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) winner Destin will be making his first start in eight weeks. No Derby winner entered the race off a break of eight weeks or more since 1929, and before that year records are incomplete.

Amoss doesn't see any disadvantage in entering the Derby off an extended layoff.

"This idea of six weeks or even eight weeks is really—in the trainer's mind—rather silly; it has no bearing," Amoss said. "Why Derby winners win from this far out or not that far out has really been because that's where the prep races were situated. Any trainer that's worth his salt can have his horse ready to run off of eight weeks, even ten weeks. It's a non-factor."