Making the Grade: Preakness New Shooters

By Mike Curry

Content Courtesy of America's Best Racing

Making the Grade, which will run through the 2016 Belmont Stakes (gr. I), focuses on the winners or top performers of the big races, usually from the previous weekend, who could impact the next Triple Crown. We'll be taking a close look at impressive winners and evaluating their chances to win classic races based upon ability, running style, connections, and pedigree.

This week we shift gears and take a look at three of the key new shooters for the Preakness Stakes (gr. I), and assess their chances to pull an upset May 21 at Pimlico Race Course.

Cherry Wine

Gray or roan colt

Sire: Paddy O'Prado

Dam: C. S. Royce, by Unbridled's Song

Owner: William Pacella and Frank L. Jones Jr.

Breeder: Pacella Racing, Frank L Jones Jr., and Frank Shoop (Ky.)

Trainer: Dale Romans

Ability: It took Cherry Wine five starts to earn his first win, but the breakthrough was an impressive 9 1/4-length runaway at Churchill Downs that was followed by another six-length romp at Gulfstream Park. He earned a 95 Equibase Speed Figure for his second win and then achieved a new career-best 98 speed figure for finishing fourth in his stakes debut in the Rebel (gr. II). After a third-place finish in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I), Cherry Wine was pointed for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) but did not have sufficient points to qualify and was re-routed to the Preakness (gr. I), a race his trainer, Dale Romans, won in 2011 with Shackleford  . He's in very good form right now, but Cherry Wine would need to run the fastest race of his career by far to win the Preakness or even to just challenge Nyquist.

Running style: Cherry Wine is a deep closer who probably would have benefitted from the lightning-fast pace in the Kentucky Derby. He figures to get a solid pace to close into in the Preakness as well, but horses with tactical speed tend to fare better in the Preakness than closers.

Pedigree: Cherry Wine is from the first crop of Paddy O'Prado, a grade I winner on grass who finished third in the 2010 Kentucky Derby. His dam, C. S. Royce, won a pair of races at 1 1/16 miles, both on the grass. Cherry Wine's granddam is multiple stakes winner Sweeping Story, the third-place finisher in the 1999 Kentucky Oaks (gr. I).

I've long been a fan of Cherry Wine, but in this spot I think he's got a great chance to finish in the top four. I don't envision a trip to the winner's circle.

Collected

Chestnut colt

Sire: City Zip  

Dam: Helena Bay, by Johannesburg

Owner: Speedway Stable

Breeder: Runnymede Farm and Peter J. Callahan (Ky.)

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Ability: Collected looked like a legitimate Kentucky Derby hopeful after opening the year with a convincing win in the Sham Stakes (gr. III), but he took a step back in his first start on an off-track, when he finished fourth in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III). Collected bounced back with clear wins in the Sunland Park Festival of Racing Stakes and the Lexington Stakes (gr. III), the latter of which earned him a career-best 106 Equibase Speed Figure. From the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, Collected has a win at 1 1/8 miles and is 3-for-3 when racing on a fast main track, all against stakes competition.

Running style: Like Nyquist, Collected has tactical speed. He's shown the ability to sit comfortably off the pace, as he did in the Lexington, when he pounced in the stretch and drew off to win by four. He set the pace in winning the 1 1/8-mile Sunland Park Festival of Racing Stakes, so he's versatile enough to use his high cruising speed to his advantage. Expect him to be very close to Nyquist early in the Preakness.

Pedigree: The big question for me after his Sham win was Collected's pedigree. His sire, City Zip, tends to pass along more speed than stamina, although some of his top runners have excelled going two turns, including 2014 champion turf female Dayatthespa and 2015 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. I) winner Catch a Glimpse. Collected's dam, Helena Bay, earned her only win at a mile and 70 yards. Collected's recent success in two-turn races has alleviated some of my concerns, especially for the 1 3/16-mile Preakness.

Next to Exaggerator, he's the biggest proven threat to Nyquist. Of course, he needs to improve significantly to have a chance to win.

Stradivari

Dark bay or brown colt

Sire: Medaglia d'Oro

Dam : Bending Strings, by American Chance

Owner: John D. Gunther, Michael B. Tabor, Derrick Smith, and Susan Magnier

Breeder: John D. Gunther (Ky.)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Ability: It's fair to call Stradivari a true wild card in the Preakness Stakes. After winning his last two races by a combined margin of 25 3/4 lengths and earning a 112 Equibase Speed Figure, Stradivari looms as the great unknown. He's making his stakes debut and only his fourth start in the Preakness, but he looks like a potential budding star. It's a lot to ask of a lightly raced runner, but it's pretty clear that most of the other Preakness hopefuls aren't fast enough to beat Nyquist. Stradivari, on the other hand, is very fast. Whether or not he's got the seasoning and maturity to defeat an unbeaten champion, however, is a completely different question.

Running style: Like Nyquist, Stradivari has tactical speed that he can use to his advantage. In his most recent win at Keeneland, going 1 1/8 miles, he rated comfortably behind the pacesetter and took over entering the final turn. He finished the final furlong in 12.52 seconds under very little urging.

Pedigree: By 2002 Travers Stakes (gr. I) winner and Belmont Stakes runner-up Medaglia d'Oro, who ranked second on the general sire list in 2015 behind only Tapit  , Stradivari gets both class and stamina from his sire. His dam, Bending Strings, was a grade II winner at a mile and also won multiple graded stakes sprinting. It doesn't look like Stradivari should have any issue carrying his speed an extra sixteenth of a mile.

Right now, Exaggerator is the main danger to spoil Nyquist's Triple Crown bid, but Stradivari is right behind him. It's a huge ask from a racehorse with only three starts, but clearly his connections have a ton of confidence in him. Of the new shooters, he appears to me to be the most physically talented and the biggest threat.