Making the Grade: Cherry Wine's Next Step

Content Courtesy of America's Best Racing

Making the Grade, which will run through the 2016 Belmont Stakes (gr. I), focuses on the winners or top performers of the big races, usually from the previous weekend, who could impact the next Triple Crown. We'll be taking a close look at impressive runners and evaluating their chances to win classic races based upon ability, running style, connections, and pedigree.

This week we take a closer look at Cherry Wine, runner-up in the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) on May 21 at Pimlico Race Course.

Cherry Wine

Gray or Roan Colt

Sire: Paddy O'Prado

Dam: C. S. Royce, by Unbridled's Song

Owner: William Pacella and Frank L. Jones Jr.

Breeder: Pacella Racing, Frank L Jones Jr., Frank Shoop (Ky.)

Trainer: Dale Romans

It took Cherry Wine a few starts to figure this racing thing out, but he made steady and significant improvement since a breakthrough win in his fifth career race. Most recently, Cherry Wine closed powerfully to finish second to Exaggerator in the Preakness Stakes in a career-best performance. Is he ready to take another step forward and challenge for the victory in the Belmont Stakes? Let's take a closer look ...

Ability: Cherry Wine's first career win was an impressive 9 1/4-length romp at Churchill Downs in November 2015 that he followed with a six-length tour de force at Gulfstream Park in January. He earned a 95 Equibase Speed Figure for the second win and then achieved a new then-career-best 98 speed figure for finishing fourth in his stakes debut in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II).

After finishing third in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I), Cherry Wine did not have sufficient points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) and instead targeted the Preakness, where he ran the fastest race thus far in his career to finish second.

Cherry Wine has really improved with added distance since stretching out to races longer than a mile, and the progress has been very consistent as he's boosted his Equibase Speed Figure from an 88 for his first win to the 102 he earned for the Preakness. The 102 figure marked a new four-point career-top figure, a nice step forward but not an especially taxing performance that you'd expect would be a knockout effort.

It looks like there remains room for growth for Cherry Wine, but don't expect a major jump up but perhaps an incremental improvement.

Running style: This is the area of major concern for me as the Belmont Stakes has not been especially kind to deep closers over the last 25 years. Twenty of the last 25 winners of the Belmont Stakes (1991-2015) were within five lengths of the pace after the first half-mile and only three times in the last 25 years was the victor more than five lengths back with a half-mile left to race. For Cherry Wine to win, he might need to be a little closer to the pace than usual or start his bid a little sooner than usual. The problem is, closers often have one big run that lasts about a quarter of a mile or three-eighths of a mile, and the effectiveness of that rally can be jeopardized by taking the horse out of his/her comfort zone.

The good news is, the Belmont Stakes pace should be much more reasonable than the Preakness, in which he was 24 lengths behind a swift :22.38 opening quarter-mile and 19 lengths behind an opening half-mile in :46.56.

Connections: Dale Romans, the 2012 Eclipse Award winner as outstanding trainer, conditions Cherry Wine for his owners-breeders William Pacella, Frank L. Jones Jr. and Frank Shoop.

Romans won the Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. IT) with Little Mike during his championship season. That was his third career win in the Breeders' Cup World Championships.

In 2011, Romans earned his first win in a U.S. Triple Crown race with Shackleford   in the Preakness. Including Cherry Wine's Preakness second, Romans also has seven other top three finishes in the Triple Crown, including a third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby with Cherry Wine's sire, Paddy O'Prado, in 2010.

Through June 6, Romans has won 1,850 races, including 210 stakes, and his runners have amassed more than $99 million in purse earnings.

Romans' father, Jerry, was a trainer based at Churchill Downs, and Dale spent his youth at the barn. His racing education included a four-month stint with Hall of Fame trainer Woody Stephens.

Corey Lanerie has ridden Cherry Wine for his last five races. He has won 3,969 races, including 232 stakes wins, through June 6 since taking out his jockey's license in 1991, and his first attempt in the Preakness came this year with Cherry Wine. He would be making his first start in the Belmont Stakes.

Romans is a lifelong friend of Jones. The Louisville-based businessman is vice president of the Kentucky Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association. Pacella also has been a client and friend of Romans for more than two decades.

Pedigree: Cherry Wine is from the first crop of grade I winner Paddy O'Prado, a versatile son of El Prado who won multiple graded stakes on the grass. Paddy O'Prado also finished second in a grade I race on a synthetic surface and third on the dirt in the 2010 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands. His five graded stakes wins came at distances ranging from 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/4 miles.

Cherry Wine is Paddy O'Prado's leading earner to date. He also is the sire of stakes winners Above Fashion and Ed Johnson.

Cherry Wine's dam, C. S. Royce, by Unbridled's Song, won two of 13 races and finished in the top three nine times for a partnership that included Jones and Pacella. Both of her wins came at 1 1/16 miles on the grass. Cherry Wine is her first foal to race.

Cherry Wine's granddam, Sweeping Story, was a multiple stakes winner who finished third in the 1999 Kentucky Oaks. Sweeping Story is one of four stakes winners produced by Cherry Wine's third dam, Appealing Story, whose top runner was Canadian champion Exciting Story, winner of the 2001 Met Mile (gr. I).

Cherry Wine looks like he has a great chance to excel at 1 1/2 miles and he's a colt on the rise, but I worry that his running style as a deep closer might hurt his chances in a race where tactical speed has historically been a valuable asset.

If he can stay a little bit closer to the pace and that does not dull his finishing kick, Cherry Wine should be able to add another top-three finish in a Triple Crown race.