It’s Post Time with Joe Kristufek: Going the Distance

When attempting to pick a winner, there are many variables to consider. Some are more important than others, but the variety in surfaces and distances makes racehorse handicapping that much more challenging.
Let’s start with the basics.
There are three types of racing surfaces – dirt, turf and synthetic. 
RACING 101: TRACK SURFACES

The majority of races run in the U.S. are contested on dirt.
Track conditions are determined by the amount of moisture in the track.
Dirt conditions (from driest to wettest): Fast – Good – Muddy – Wet Fast – Sloppy
When fast, most dirt surfaces favor horses with early speed, but on any surface, pace makes the race. The faster the horses go early, the better chance the closers have to catch up. If the early fractions are slow, horses near the front of the pack gain a tactical advantage.
Turf conditions (from driest to wettest): Firm – Good – Yielding – Soft
Because of the specialized drainage systems and composition of the man-made surface, synthetic tracks are always fast.
Turfway Park introduced their Polytrack synthetic surface in the fall of 2005 and several others followed suit. Arlington International Racecourse, Woodbine and Golden Gate Fields also utilize a synthetic surface. Santa Anita Park, Keeneland Race Course and Meydan, where the Dubai World Cup is held, recently converted back to dirt from synthetic surfaces. Del Mar will return to dirt in 2015.
Let’s talk distance.
There are eight furlongs in a mile. The circumference of most main tracks is eight or nine furlongs, but there are six and seven furlong “bullrings” with tighter turns, and on the opposite end of the spectrum the massiveness of Belmont Park, which is a rare 1 ½ miles (12 furlongs) once around.
Races up to seven furlongs are considered sprints. Routes are at least a mile in distance.
Having a solid handle on what a horse does best – surface and distance – can put us on a lot more winners. Are they a six-furlong dirt sprinter, a 1 ½-mile turf marathoner or somewhere in between?
Let dig deeper into surface and distance.
10. Pedigree - What is a horse bred to do?
The best way to find out is to research the pedigree of the family – the dad (sire), mom (dam), brothers and sisters – where did they have success?
Sprint, route, turf?
Pedigree can often point us in the right direction, but I was a very good baseball player in my day and my brother is like a brick wall in the hockey net and I can barely skate. You get the picture. 
9. Physicality - As discussed in our presentation on physicality, horses, just like humans, have different body types.
In sprint races, look for horses who are built like a Mustang - compact, big chest and hind end.
In route races, look for a horses who are built like a Ferrari - sleek, long and athletic.
Horses who race well on turf often have big, wide, paddle-type feet.
Synthetics specialists often have a narrow build.
If you’re handicapping a maiden sprint and see a horse with a router’s build, chances are the connections are using that race as a springboard to a longer one down the road.
Don’t miss last week’s blog on Physicality
8. Prove It - One of the many jobs of a trainer is to figure out what their horses do best and maximize their ability.
How a horse trains in the morning often will clue a trainer in to their distance limitations.
If a horse has run in 20 sprints before finally trying a route, chances are they won’t get the added distance successfully, even if they’re bred for it. Don’t get caught in that trap!
Based on pedigree, talent and stamina, trainers often plot out the early stages of a horse’s career with an eventual goal in mind, but in the end the horse must prove what they’re best at.           
Once a horse has proven what they can do, you can toss the pedigree out the window. California Chrome isn’t bred to be a classic winner over 1 ¼ miles (10 furlongs), but he is. Just because a horse is bred to be a turf miler doesn’t mean they will be. Educated pedigree guesses can work early in a horse’s career, but if they’ve tried a surface/distance several times without success, it’s not worth going back to that well.
CALIFORNIA CHROME WON THE KENTUCKY DERBY

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
7. Sprints – Unless the early pace is ridiculously fast, deep closers rarely win sprint races on any surface, but particularly dirt. If the field is large, traffic becomes a greater issue. If the field is smallish, the potential for a pace duel decreases.
6. Routes – In route races, saving ground becomes that much more important. Stamina and finishing punch are critical. There’s nothing more dangerous than a horse that possesses both natural early speed and stamina. Theoretically, because there is more ground to cover, late runners rate a better chance in routes, but remember: pace makes the race.
5. Dirt - The perfect trip on dirt is in the two path, spying the speed. If a horse is trapped inside, they very likely will get dirt kicked in their face, which many horses don’t appreciate. Early in the card, it also is important to pay attention to track bias. Is the track favoring speed or off-the-pace types? Is the inside a more favorable place to be than the outside? 
4. Turf – Grass races are my absolute favorite.
Most courses are built on the inside of the main track, therefore they have tighter turns and a shorter stretch run. Horses are more bunched in turf races, and a sprint to the finish line often determines the result.
Horses with good tactical speed and inside posts are golden on the grass. If a horse has tactical speed and an inside post, chances are they aren't quite fast enough to make the lead, but their quickness assures a good, stalking trip close to the ground-saving rail, otherwise known as a “pocket” trip.
When determining the early pace in a turf race, don’t be fooled by dirt sprinters stretching out on the grass, unless they have proven their speed over the surface in the past. They may not be able to grab the turf the same way they do the dirt, therefore they will not display the same sharpness.
Having accurate trip notes at your disposal is extremely important when evaluating grass races. Good horses who could have won, or at least run better, in their most recent start may have been compromised by A) a slow early pace or B) major traffic trouble. Having good trip notes can put you on lots of 8-to-1 winners. Grass races at all levels are often very evenly matched, and more often than not, the good horse with the cleanest trip wins.

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
3. Synthetics – Comparable to turf racing – grass horses who can barely stand up on dirt often produce solid efforts on synthetic tracks.
It’s difficult to make a blanket statement about the way synthetic tracks play. At Arlington, my home track, the inside part of the track is the place to be, so you want a horse with speed or at least one who should sit an inside trip.
Gravitate to horses who have proven form on the particular track and demand fitness. Avoid cheap speed and horses returning from layoffs.
Be willing to excuse a poor effort more readily. Use a horse’s best recent race as the lead indicator as to how they might run today. 
2. Niche – Most horses are specialists. There are very few horses like Palace Malice, who can win Grade 1 races in a one-turn mile or at 1 ½ miles around two turns.
Some horses find their niche right away, others take time to discover their best surface and distance, and there are sometimes equipment changes along the way.
PALACE MALICE WINNING THE MET MILE

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire       
1. Class and Pace - After several starts a horse will eventually display what they do best, but in the end the quality of competition they are facing, race to race, will determine their level of success.
A horse might love turf, but if the competition is too tough in said grass race, the results are unlikely to be productive.
If a horse is a proven turf closer who is entered in a race with no early pace, their chances of winning decrease.
When evaluating a horse race, it’s important to go the extra distance if you hope to pick the winner, but it’s just one piece to a much bigger puzzle.
Remember, with knowledge comes horsepower!