Saratoga Sires by Earning Potential

Stakes winners are typically the measure by which the quality of a catalog page is determined. As the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale approaches, let’s look at another metric that is also important to owners—earning potential.

BloodHorse MarketWatch ran a chart in the July 2 issue of BloodHorse with racing performance statistics for horses from the 2011-13 Northern Hemisphere crops that are also by stallions to be represented in the Aug. 8-9 Saratoga sale. We updated the statistics in this chart through Aug. 5 to get the most up-to-date information on progeny that have earned $250,000 or more. We used the three-year window to provide a glimpse into what a sire’s progeny has been doing most recently.

The updated statistics reveal 14 sires with at least 4.5% earners of $250,000 or more. Our cut-off was originally 5% but two sires reached 5% with rounding, so they’ve been included in the chart below.

The leaders won’t surprise anyone. Gainesway’s Tapit   and Coolmore's star Galileo each had 30 runners that earned $250,000 or more, with Tapit taking top spot with 9.9%. By percentage, Galileo is the third-leading sire at 8.1%. Tapit will be well represented at the Humphrey S. Finney sale pavilion with seven colts and five fillies to be offered, as of Aug. 7, while Galileo has one colt and one filly being offered. If the yearlings by both sires “tick all the boxes,” they’ll command a premium. Tapit’s average at the Saratoga sale last year was $885,714. Galileo didn’t have any sell at Saratoga last year, but his worldwide yearling average for 2015 was $660,000.

The second-leading sire by percentage of earners of $250,000 or more is Ashford Stud’s Uncle Mo   at 9.2%. He will be represented by four colts and seven fillies in the Saratoga sale. Uncle Mo’s average at Saratoga last year was $156,667. As the runaway leading second-crop sire with more than $9.3 million in progeny earnings and 13 black-type stakes winners, no one should be expecting an average this low this season.

Claiborne Farm’s War Front   ranks fourth by percentage of $250,000 or more earners at 6.9%. Only two War Front yearlings remain in the sale (Hips 28 and 239). Last year, War Front’s Saratoga average was a robust $510,000.

As for value prospects, the progeny of Lane’s End Farm’s Candy Ride   and Adena Springs’ Ghostzapper   are worth exploring. Both sires are represented by 5.5% earners of $250,000 or more, with Candy Ride having 15 runners in this earnings category and Ghostzapper with nine. At last year’s Saratoga sale, Candy Ride’s yearlings averaged $228,750 and Ghostzapper’s yearlings averaged $205,000.

Among the runners foaled in 2011-13, Candy Ride is represented by 11 (2.9%) graded stakes winners. He is the fifth-leading Saratoga sire by number of graded stakes winners out of these three foal crops. Ghostzapper has seven graded stakes winners (3.4%).