Litfin at Large: Beating Mother Nature

When it comes to the recent weather at Saratoga Race Course, payback has been something that rhymes with itch.

After idyllic conditions gate to wire last summer we are in the throes of some dog days at The August Place to Be, where torrential overnight downpours resulted in the cancellation of Wednesday's scheduled steeplechase opener. The aftermath has been 90 degrees and beastly dew points, and the outlook is for a bumpy ride the next couple days: scattered squalls Friday—some possibly severe—and a good chance of storms becoming widespread as Saturday goes along.

This meteorological crap-shoot is how things normally roll at the Spa.

So what will course conditions be on the lawn for the Fourstardave Handicap, which is being run as a grade I for the first time? And will the 2-year-old fillies in the 100th running of the Adirondack (gr. II) be confronted with off-going? 

Only Mother Nature knows, and she has been in a foul mood.

Fourstardave Handicap (race 10, 6:32 p.m. ET)

The unsettled forecast is a big reason why Chad Brown kept Takeover Target (#4) home instead of sending him to Chicago for the Arlington Million (gr. IT). The Harlan's Holiday colt has won on turf labeled good, yielding, and soft, and he was up against it in the Poker against California shipper Obviously, who missed Elusive Quality's mile record by .02 seconds on a surface that played like the Bonneville Salt Flats.

The far outside post and a short run to the first turn are a potential hindrance for Ring Weekend (#10), but soothing give in the turf would likely help him, too, as foot issues sidelined him for over a year after he won the 2015 Frank E. Kilroe Mile (gr. IT). He ran a truly remarkable race in the Dixie (gr. IIT) first time back, when nailed late by Takeover Target after an impossibly wide trip.

The Fourstardave would have come up lots tougher had Obviously and/or Tepin entered. In their absence, David Donk decided a third try might be the charm for King Kreesa (#7), a New York-bred who gave Wise Dan a real scare in this race three years ago, and who was beaten just a length last year. He looks like the controlling speed, and when that is the case, stuff happens, as Laoban reminded us with his Jim Dandy (gr. II) upset.

As a 3-year-old in 2014, Tourist (#6) turned heads winning the restricted Sir Cat Stakes over this same course and trip. He is 0 for 7 in graded stakes, but a sharp second in the Shoemaker Mile (gr. IT) against Midnight Storm, who returned to win the Eddie Read (gr. IIT), suggests he is a formidable presence.

It's hard to have any confidence in Grand Arch (#5), because although he won this race last year and was a close second the year before, he was outworked twice recently by 2-year-old stablemate Brooklyn Bobby, who was a disappointing sixth in his Whitney Day debut.

In a deep field, cases can also be made for Blacktype (#2), A Lot (#3) and Force the Pass (#9).

In A-B-C pecking order, I have it this way if the turf is firm or maybe good-to-firm:

A - 6

B - 2, 3, 7, 10

C - 4, 5, 9

If the rains come and the turf is yielding or worse, how about this:

A - 4, 6, 10

B - 2, 7

C - 3, 5, 9

Wait and see about the late pick four, where the first and last legs are scheduled for turf as well.

If you need things narrowed down more specifically as of early Thursday evening, we shall refer you to 1-800-NOSTRADAMUS.

Adirondack (race 9, 5:54 p.m. ET)

Silvertoni (#3) is back in the United States and back on dirt after catching a soggy turf course at Royal Ascot, and that may be a sweet daily double for the lone stakes winner in the field. She has the trademark early alacrity of a Wesley Ward-trained youngster, and in Nonna Mela (#2), Libby's Tail (#5), and Ever So Clever (#6), she meets rivals who were tardy from the gate in their maiden victories.

Silvertoni, who beat males in the Kentucky Juvenile on the "Thurby" program at Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby week, gives four pounds to all as the lone stakes winner. By Tapit  , and out of a Johannesburg mare, she is bred to relish any moisture in the track.

So too is Libby's Tail, who was purchased by a partnership headed by Michael Dubb and trained by Rudy Rodriguez—for the most part, the same connections who campaigned Condo Commando, whose romp in a sloppy 2014 Spinaway was described as "splashtastic" by Tom Durkin in his farewell call.

Tiz Wonderful sired them both, don't you know.

Let's go this way:

A - 3

B - 2, 5, 6

Sounds simple enough.