Saratoga Swan Song

While Labor Day weekend has something of an anti-climactic feel in the wake of a history-making Travers Stakes (gr. I), there are still 35 races to be run at the "September place to be" over the last three days. Bear in mind first post moves up to 12:30 p.m. EDT on Sept. 3, 4, and 5.

The 12-race Saturday program features four graded stakes, including the Saranac (gr. IIIT), which is race 5 and the last leg of the early pick five and pick four; and the Glens Falls (gr. IIIT), which is race 11. 

Making up the heart of the order for the bonus late pick five sequence (races 8-12) are the two featured attractions, the $350,000 Spinaway (gr. I) and $600,000 Woodward (gr. I). 

Here's what we think.

Spinaway (race 9, 5:11 p.m. EDT)

The two stakes winners in the 125th running of the venerable race for 2-year-old fillies are Sweet Loretta (#1) and Pretty City Dancer, pricey daughters of Tapit   that were purchased respectively for $750,000 and $825,000.

Sweet Loretta broke in a tangle and was off slowest in the Schuylerville (gr. III) here opening day, which may have been a blessing in disguise over a track that had an outside-rallying flow through the first few days—especially since a sharp pace developed in front of her. Before and after that, by the way, St. Elias and trainer Todd Pletcher also teamed up to win the circuit's two other open stakes for juvenile fillies so far—the Astoria with Bode's Dream, and the Adirondack (gr. II) with Nonna Mela.

Pretty City Dancer has already had her share of misadventures at the gate, receiving comments of "bobbled start," "off slow" and "hopped start" in three outings. The last two were decisive wins at Churchill Downs, however, capped by the July 2 Debutante Stakes, and the Mark Casse-trained filly has had two months off leading to the summer's main objective.

Pletcher is in search of a sixth Spinaway score. In addition to Sweet Loretta, he sends out Cherry Lodge (#5), who was bet to 7-5 favoritism when unveiled Aug. 7. Notably, that was against Amapola, a filly who had broken Gulfstream Park's 4 1/2-furlong track record when disqualified from a 9 3/4-length tally in late May, and Cherry Lodge overcame the experience disadvantage readily.

Cherry Lodge has to stretch out from 5 1/2 to seven furlongs, whereas Sweet Loretta, Pretty City Dancer, Runway Doll (#3), and Schuylerville runner-up Fun (#4) have all been six furlongs. Nevertheless, that should be fine for a promising daughter of Bernardini   we already know is fast.

It's a competitive renewal we see this way for multi-race purposes:

A—5

B—1, 3, 6

C—4

Woodward (race 10, 5:46 p.m.)

Only five horses showed up against Frosted (#3) in the Aug. 6 Whitney (gr. I), but eight oppose the three-time grade I winner four weeks later.

We're not going to belabor Frosted's exploits other than to say you know, I know, and the whole grandstand knows he is the one to beat. Be that as it may, it's horse racing. Things have been known to happen around here, and it's fair to say this is a deeper group than what he faced in the Whitney, or in his record-setting Met Mile (gr. I), for that matter. 

Consider this: with a career bankroll of $3.85 million, Frosted is barely the leading earner in the lineup over his stablemate, Mubtaahij (#9), who beat him by 1 3/4 lengths when second to California Chrome   in the Dubai World Cup (UAE-I).

Two other millionaires are lurking in the shadows as well, Stephen Foster (gr. I) winner Bradester (#4), and Samraat (#6), who beat out Mubtaahij for second in the Suburban (gr. II).

The dark horse, at least to my mind, though, is Shaman Ghost (#1), last year's Queen's Plate winner, and an emphatic winner of the Brooklyn (gr. II) in his second start for Jimmy Jerkens.

Shaman Ghost was a flat fifth in the Suburban after that, but Jerkens noted he had a stubborn cough in between those races. Another potential contributing factor is the fact that the rail was Death Valley at Belmont Park July 9, and Shaman Ghost was toward the inside a good part of the way in the Suburban.

"The rail was really not the place to be that day, and it looked like he was in the slower going and kind of got a little discouraged," he said. "Maybe Frosted will be worried about Bradester and go at him early, and they get to going too fast... and it looks like he's certainly on par numbers-wise with the rest of the field."

All of that may add up to a live horse at a square price. At 10-1 or better, a win bet and an exacta saver underneath Frosted is the plan.

For multi-race bets, Frosted is the chalky key, duh, but two potential bust-outs are in the mix if things go swimmingly elsewhere:

A—3

B—1, 9