Picking Winners on Parx's Big Day

Saturday is the biggest day of the year at Parx Racing, where a 12-race program includes five stakes topped by the Cotillion (gr. I) and Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II), which offer the last best chance for the sophomore set to solidify their case for year-end honors.

The supporting stakes, in order of appearance, are the $100,000 Alphabet Soup Handicap for older Pennsylvania-bred turf runners (race 7); the $150,000 Pa. Derby Championship Stakes (race 8); and the $300,000 Gallant Bob (gr. III) for sophomore sprinters (race 9).

There is a 50-cent pick four linking the last four stakes (races 8-11).

Cotillion (race 10, 4:55 p.m. EDT)

Quite a lot would have to go wrong from here on out for anyone other than Songbird (#5) to be champion 3-year-old filly. The unbeaten daughter of Medaglia d'Oro is justifiably the 1-2 morning-line choice against five opponents that include Acorn (gr. I) winner Carina Mia (#1) and Kentucky Oaks winner (gr. I) winner Cathryn Sophia (#2), either of which would be odds-on against anyone else in the division.

You don't need me to extol the virtues of Songbird, whose average margin of victory through 10 victories approaches 5 1/2 lengths, but this is a situation similar to what we saw with Tepin in the Ricoh Woodbine Mile (Can-IT), which is to say everyone is rooting for a charismatic horse that is invincible on paper, but due to circumstance could be somewhat vulnerable.

When division leaders are not at their peak, as in bridge races to a major objective, they can sometimes be had, and Tepin was indeed fully stretched to keep her winning streak alive.

The parallels are striking: Tepin produced a monumental effort at Royal Ascot, and off a layoff was seeking the best way to the Breeders' Cup Mile (gr. IT). Songbird shipped cross-country for two big performances at steamy Saratoga  Race Course, and has since racked up more frequent flier miles as her connections target the Breeders' Cup Distaff (gr. I) on her home grounds.

Neither of Songbird's wins at the Spa were as easy as they looked; she came back huffing and puffing twice. Carina Mia gave her a gut-check in the CCA Oaks, and she then turned back a kamikaze pace challenge from Go Maggie Go in the 1 1/4-mile Alabama (gr. I), which unfolded through a last quarter in 27 seconds that had everyone gasping.

As magnificent as Songbird was in overcoming obstacles, this race is a stepping-stone. Moreover, the pace scenario is potentially unfavorable as she cuts back in distance drawn outside Carina Mia and Cathryn Sophia, who are stretching out.

Cathryn Sophia comes into this fresh and fit on the heels of a sharp tune-up over the track, and may be in the right place at the right time to deliver a mild upset.

Pennsylvania Derby (race 11, 5:45 p.m.)

This is Round 7 between 2015 juvenile champion Nyquist (#9) and Exaggerator (#2), who first tangled in their career debuts back in early June 2015. Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) winner Nyquist had the upper hand in their first four meetings, but Exaggerator turned the tables on his nemesis in sloppy renewals of the Preakness (gr. I) and the Haskell Invitational (gr. I).

All told, those two have combined 12 graded stakes victories and $8.75 million in earnings, but due to questions regarding their current form, they haven't scared anyone off. The 12-horse field is the largest for the Pennsylvania Derby since a dozen also went to the post in 2008.

Fair enough. After winning his first eight races, Nyquist regressed and came up short as the chalk in the Preakness (gr. I) and Haskell, although there were excuses on each occasion. Meanwhile, Exaggerator's three grade I victories this season have all come in the slop with fast paces to set up his late run.

It looks as though the rigors of getting to the Triple Crown's first two legs exacted a toll on Nyquist, a slightly-built colt who measures barely 16 hands and is on the nervous side, to boot. He seems to have benefited from spending the summer at tranquil San Luis Rey Downs—where his one-mile workouts have been progressively faster—and it bears repeating he has never lost on a non-sealed track. 

Nyquist is not a need-to-lead horse (something he proved last fall). Expect that he will be handled more patiently with the speedy duo of Awesome Slew (#1) and Cupid (#5) breaking to his inside.

Nyquist is a quality horse with tactical speed, and he is fresh and ready for a peak race that vaults him back to the top of the heap, pending a showdown with Arrogate and California Chrome   down the road.

Other than Arrogate's historic Travers (gr. I), Summer Revolution (#3) has been as fast or faster than any 3-year-old in 2016. While something like the seven-furlong Malibu (gr. I) at year's end might prove to be an ideal spot, the son of Summer Bird has the pedigree to handle this stretch-out from seven furlongs, and he was up against it in the King's Bishop (gr. I) when off in a tangle behind controlling-speed winner Drefong.

Gallant Bob (race 9, 4:14 p.m.)

I'm planning to use a handful of contenders, and note that another pick four begins here as well, going through the Cotillion, Pa. Derby, and the finale.

Mind Your Biscuits (#2), Threefiveindia (#3), Navy Hymn (#4), Noholdingback Bear (#5), and Who's Out (#11) will be on my tickets in various configurations, but I want to get a sense of how the Parx surface is playing Saturday before finalizing the pecking order.