Litfin At Large: Belmont Super Saturday I

Here's your Long Island weather forecast for Belmont Park's "Super Saturday I" program: "Showers on Friday, with a steady rain Saturday morning, showers continuing in the afternoon; chance of rain 80%; winds NE at 10-20 miles per hour."

In other words, if you're headed to the track for the 11-race card that begins at 12:30 and includes five stakes, bundle up buttercup.

Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (race 6, 3:26 p.m. EDT): With only four horses signed on, the featured Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (gr. IT), a "Win And You're In" race for the Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. IT), is not part of the early pick five, nor is it part of the newly-instituted late pick five. About the only thing you can do is single Flintshire (#4) in the first leg of the pick six.

Under weight-for-age conditions, Flintshire carries the same 126 pounds as his stablemate Money Multiplier (#3), who he gave 10 pounds to in the Sword Dancer en route to his third win without a loss this season.

The most interesting thing about the race is a potentially boggy turf course, because the two most accomplished runners, Flintshire and Twilight Eclipse (#2), both like to hear their feet rattle.

Flintshire, relocated to the United States expressly for firm ground, is 0 for 4 on soft or "good-to-soft" going, including a fifth-place finish in the 2014 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud at 3-5, and a fourth in the 2013 Qatar Prix Niel at 3-2.

All seven of Twilight Eclipse's grass victories have been on firm turf—the firmer the better, since he set the current world record of 2:22.63 seconds for 1 1/2 miles in the 2013 Pan American (gr. IIT). This will be the fourth crack at the Turf Classic for Twilight Agenda, who was arguably best when a very troubled third last year.

The horse most favored by significant rain stands to be Ectot (#1), a three-time winner over soft going as a 2-year-old in 2013 including the group 1 Criterium International.

I'm just a spectator.

 

Gallant Bloom Handicap (race 7, 4:04 p.m. EDT): Wavell Avenue (#6) was a fast-closing second to eventual Eclipse Award winner La Verdad in last year's Gallant Bloom Handicap (gr. II), and turned the tables on that rival in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (gr. I). Coming off a flat sixth in the Ballerina, Wavell Avenue takes on La Verdad's half sister, Hot City Girl (#3), who nearly won the La Brea (gr. I) in her final start of 2015, and returned to form beating New York-breds in the Union Avenue at Saratoga Race Course in mid-August.

Wavell Avenue should be okay if the rains come, as she was a maiden winner—for a $40,000 tag, with no takers—on a sloppy Belmont strip in October 2014 in what was a vastly improved effort as a third-time starter.

Wonder Gal (#7), second in a sloppy Frizette (gr. I) two years ago, underwent a myectomy after coming up empty in the Barbara Fritchie (gr. II) last winter and returned to win impressively at the Spa, albeit over New York-bred optional claiming company.

Paulassilverlining (#4), who won the Distaff (gr. III) and Vagrancy (gr. III) back to back in the spring, has also run well over off-going, as has Quezon (#2), who picks up three-time Eclipse Award winner Javier Castellano and gets in light.

In a wide-open start to the late pick five, a realistic case can be made for five of the seven entrants:

A - 4, 6, 7

B - 2, 3

Pilgrim (race 8, 4:37 p.m. EDT): Oscar Performance (#6) has continued to train forwardly since his lengthy maiden triumph second time out, but like almost every other lightly raced 2-year-old in this edition of the Pilgrim (gr. IIIT), he is an unknown on turf rated anything other than firm.

The lone entrant with experience on rain-softened courses is the import My Bo Chop (#5), who figures to improve off his United States debut when a respectable fifth in the With Anticipation (gr. IIT).

Also likely to go forward is Oiseau de Guerre (#8), who had his heels clipped early and was headstrong through a premature move when odds-on first time out.

Hitting the "all" button is not out of the question in this situation—unless the race is rained off the turf, in which case I would try to skate by using only Sir Douglas (#4) and Thirst for Victory (#10). 

On grass: 

A - 6

B - 5, 8

Vosburgh Invitational (race 9, 5:11 p.m. EDT): X Y Jet (#6) was regarded as the top sprinter in the nation early in the season after winning three stakes at Gulfstream Park by almost 15 lengths, and finishing a close second in the Dubai Golden Shaheen (gr. I). After surgery to remove a knee chip, this will be his first race in over six months, and he will have to be at his best in order to handle the streaking A.P. Indian (#5), who has won five straight stakes capped by the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (gr. I) and the Forego (gr. I) at Saratoga.

Also rating some consideration in the Vosburgh, a "Win And You're In" for the Breeders' Cup Sprint (gr. I) are: Holy Boss (#2), a solid second in the Vanderbilt; Joking (#3), who improved to 5-3-0 at Belmont by winning the True North (gr. II) prior to a designed freshening; and Stallwalkin' Dude (#7), third, beaten a neck, in the 2015 Vosburgh.

A - 5

B - 2, 6

C - 3, 7

Beldame (race 10, 5:45 p.m. EDT): In the absence of Cavorting and Curalina, there's little question Forever Unbridled (#2) is the one to beat in the Beldame (gr. I), but there is one caveat: she has never run on anything but fast tracks, and trainer Dallas Stewart has sounded apprehensive about running the multiple graded stakes-winning filly in the muck and mire. What's more, her full sister, 2015 Ballerina (gr. I) winner Unbridled Forever, raced solely on fast tracks throughout her career.

The only other entrant I can take in this spot is Off the Tracks (#7), who returns to the scene of her two best performances, a win in the Mother Goose (gr. I) and a runner-up finish in the Acorn (gr. I).

A - 2

B - 7