Handicapping All The Races

The Oct. 8 stakes come fast and furious, so here is a handy-dandy schedule to get you tied on. All times are Eastern:

Notice the opportunity for a dinner break after the day's two richest races, the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Shadwell Turf Mile, either at Ruth's Chris Steak House or McDonald's, depending on how the afternoon's whirlwind of Breeders' Cup prep races go. 

There are multi-race exotics galore, needless to say. At Keeneland, a $250,000 pick five starts with the Woodford, and a $350,000 pick four starts with the Thoroughbred Club Of America. At Belmont Park, the Frizette and Kelso are the concluding legs of the early pick five and pick four; the pick six starts with the Flower Bowl; the late pick five starts with the inaugural Belmont Turf Sprint Invitational; the late pick four begins with the Champagne.

NBC will have live coverage from 5:00 to 6:00 p.m.

Let's roll through the day's eight grade I races chronologically:

Frizette (Belmont, Race 4, 1:53 p.m.)

The weather forecast calls for a 50-50 chance of showers on Long Island, which ought to be fine with three fillies sired by Tiznow   or one of his sons—Sky Gesture (#1, Tiznow), Libby's Tail (#2, Tiz Wonderful) and Yellow Agate (#4, Gemologist  ). The latter is the the lone entrant with a race over Big Sandy, but the experience edge goes to Nonna Mela (#3), who improved steadily through the summer and was much best taking the Adirondack (gr. II) prior to a designed freshening.

A—3

B—1, 4

Flower Bowl (Belmont, Race 6, 3:03)

That was some Herculean effort by Lady Eli (#5) to split Strike Charmer (#2) and Sentiero Italia (#4) in the Ballston Spa (gr. IIT) first time back from a life-threatening battle with laminitis more than a year earlier. With that race under her belt, and stretching back out to the distance of her comprehensive score in the 2015 Belmont Oaks Invitational (gr. IT), she can get back to the winner's circle for Chad Brown. At the trip, her primary late threat could be stablemate Sea Calisi (#6), the Beverly D winner whose only loss from three starts in the United States was a very troubled second to another Brown-trained mare, Dacita, who subsequently won the Diana (gr. IT).

A—5

B—2, 4, 6

Champagne (Belmont, Race 8, 4:13)

Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher each send out a pair, while five-time Champagne winner Nick Zito sends out the only winner at the distance, Lookin At Blessing (#4), and Bob Baffert sends in Big Gray Rocket (#6)  from California off a sharp second-out maiden triumph.

Brown's duo of Hopeful winner Practical Joke (#1) and Favorable Outcome (#5) look evenly matched, while Pletcher's New York-bred phenom Syndergaard (#3) has been significantly faster than stablemate Thirst for Victory (#2).

A—5, 6

B—1, 3

First Lady (Keeneland, Race 7, 4:35)

Tepin (#2) has run three of her most powerful races over the Keeneland turf course. The one challenger with a performance in the same area code is Celestine (#8), who missed Elusive Quality's one-mile Widener course record by 1/100th of a second when last seen in the Just A Game (gr. IT).

A—2

B—8

Santa Anita Sprint Championship (Santa Anita, Race 4, 5:00)

Nothing much to do with this field of five, where the two fastest horses are Lord Nelson (#4) and Jazzy Times (#5),  both trained by Bob Baffert. They last ran at Del Mar on July 31, when Lord Nelson won the Bing Crosby (gr. I) decisively, one race after Jazzy Times beat first-level allowance sprinters. The latter missed the King's Bishop (gr. I) at Saratoga due to a minor foot issue, but looks to be training up a storm with a series of typically Baffert-like bullet works.

Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (Keeneland, Race 8, 5:10)

A big question is what to do with Classic Empire (#11), who wheeled and lost his rider as the 8-5 choice in the Hopeful (gr. I). He quickly posted two works from the gate, and resurfaces with blinkers on while drawn wide. He was able to overcome tardy starts in two sprints at Churchill Downs, including the Bashford Manor (gr. III), but can ill afford any miscues first time around two turns.

Neither am I particularly enamored of the other two graded stakes winners in the lineup, Bitumen (#1), the Sanford (gr. III) winner who had no apparent mishap finishing fourth in the Hopeful, or Gunnevera (#2), a deep closer who got a perfect setup in the Saratoga Special (gr. II).

This could be a place to spread as much as you can and root for some chaos with Singing Bullet (#3), Blame Will (#6), Holiday Bonus (#7), Wild Shot (#8), No Dozing (#9), and Lookin At Lee (#12).

Sorry I can't be of more help, but it's that kind of race.

Jockey Club Gold Cup (Belmont, Race 10, 5:23)

With a short field of five (War Story will be scratched), this is a tricky situation pace-wise because Protonico (#1) has won graded stakes either wire to wire or rallying from dead last, and he breaks from the inside post in a match-up where Effinex (#6) is the only other horse with much tactical speed.

The distance is a big question mark for Protonico, especially off a hard-fought comeback win at a mile, while Effinex is a proven commodity at 10 furlongs. Mubtaahij (#2) and Hoppertunity (#3) figure close with Effinex based on their past meetings, but could be compromised by slow fractions.

A—6

B—2, 3

C—1

Shadwell Turf Mile (Keeneland, Race 9, 5:45)

Based on her local form, including a win over the boys in the Maker's 46 Mile (gr. IT) in her seasonal debut, Miss Temple City (#7) probably has a better chance here than would've been the case in the First Lady against Tepin.

That said, this is no walk in the park for her against the likes of Arlington Million (gr. IT) winner Mondialiste (#4), Manhattan (gr. IT) runner-up Ironicus (#8), and Fourstardave (gr. IT) winner Tourist (#10). The latter took the worst of the post position draw, but could shake out as the main speed, depending on the tactics of What a View (#11), who makes his first start in six months and his first outside Southern California.

A—8, 10

B—4, 7

C—11