Litfin Examines Upcoming Turf Stakes

Important turf stakes are a hallmark of fall racing, and along with peak foliage this weekend handicappers are treated to three top-tier grass races: Saturday's $500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Presented by Lane's End (gr. IT) at Keeneland; and Sunday's doubleheader of the $1 million Pattison Canadian International (gr. IT) and $500,000 E.P. Taylor (gr. IT) at Woodbine.

Sunday's Woodbine card also includes the $300,000 Nearctic Stakes (gr. IIT) for turf sprinters.

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (Keeneland, Saturday, race 9, 5:30 p.m. ET)

Anyone who's anybody in the 3-year-old filly turf ranks was entered in the 33rd running of the 1 1/8-mile QE II, headed by pro-tem division leaders Catch a Glimpse and Time and Motion, Del Mar Oaks (gr. IT) winner Harmonize, the rapidly rising star On Leave, and the dangerous European invader Hawksmoor.

This will be Round 4 between Catch a Glimpse (#1) and Time and Motion (#7), a rivalry that began at Keeneland a year ago when the former won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. IT) and the latter was beaten less than two lengths after being drawn impossibly wide in post 14. After beginning her sophomore season with three straight wins for Jimmy Toner, Time and Motion narrowed the gap to a half-length when a fast-closing second to Catch a Glimpse in the Belmont Oaks Invitational (gr. IT), and then became the first filly to beat Catch a Glimpse on the grass when she caught her in deep stretch of the Lake Placid (gr. IIT).

The Lake Placid was run in the rain, so although Saratoga Race Course's tight-turned inner course was officially labeled "firm," there was a lot of slipping and sliding going on. Elysea's World, the third choice, stumbled at the start; and My Impression—subsequent winner of the Commonwealth Oaks (gr. IIIT) at Laurel Park—finished under a protective hold after bobbling awkwardly nearing the stretch.

Based on a line through the Lake Placid's third finisher, Diamond Fields, On Leave (#2) is on par with Catch a Glimpse and Time and Motion, as she defeated Diamond Fields decisively in the Sands Point (gr. IIT) four weeks ago at Belmont Park. At this point, the sky is the limit for On Leave, a Stuart S. Janney III homebred daughter of War Front   who has swept her four starts this season for Shug McGaughey, while showing the wherewithal to go to the front, stalk the pace, or rally from far back.

In terms of Equibase Speed Figures, Catch a Glimpse (112), Time and Motion (112), and On Leave (110) are in a virtual dead heat based on their peak performances, and Harmonize (111), Stays in Vegas (111) and Mokat (110) are also right there based on their 1-3-4 finishes in the Del Mar Oaks presented by The Jockey Club (gr. IT). At 1 1/4 miles, Harmonize (#4) didn't fire in the Belmont Oaks when equipped with blinkers for the first time by Bill Mott, but she cut back to nine furlongs and unleashed a huge late run to overtake Stays in Vegas (#3) and Mokat (#9) at Del Mar.

Meanwhile, Lael Stables' Hawksmoor (#5) is a group stakes winner in England and Germany, and she looms something of a wild card moving back in with straight 3-year-olds, after chasing the multiple group I winner Alice Springs at Leopardstown. Yielding turf moves her up, but as of Thursday afternoon there was only a 20% chance of rain Saturday.

I have the contenders ranked for multi-race purposes this way, but will elevate Hawksmoor if it rains:

A - 1, 2, 7

B - 4, 5

Pattison Canadian International (Woodbine, Sunday, race 9, 5:40 p.m. ET)

Woodbine's European-style turf course is the largest in North America, and not surprisingly the 1 1/2-mile Canadian International attracted several quality runners from across the pond, as did the 1 1/4-mile E.P. Taylor.

Experience reminds us it's never a bad idea to default to Sir Michael Stoute when it comes to Canadian International affairs, as he won the last two renewals with Cannock Chase (2014, $7.50) and Hillstar (2015, $4.50), both of which were favored, as well as the 1996 edition with Singspiel. Dartmouth (#5) may well be the one to beat as Stoute seeks a third straight Canadian International win, and on QE II weekend it's noteworthy the colt is owned by Queen Elizabeth II.

As of Thursday, the forecast called for a 60% chance of showers in Toronto Sunday. Dartmouth appears to handle most types of going, as do 2014 Melbourne Cup (gr. IT) winner Protectionist (#9) and Betway Great Voltigeur Stakes (gr. IIT) winner Idaho (#3). One European who could be compromised by wet weather is Erupt (#8), who began his career with four straight wins, capped by the Juddmonte Grand Prix de Paris (gr. IT) on firm ground.

I'm of the opinion that the 1-2-3 finishers from the recent Northern Dancer (gr. IT)—The Pizza Man (#4), Wake Forest (#6) and World Approval (#2)—are vulnerable to one or more of the Europeans.

The Canadian International and E.P. Taylor are part of a $250,000 pick four and $150,000 pick five, but those wagers have a 25 percent takeout. Pick threes are even worse at 26.3 percent. For multi-race wagers, your best best at Woodbine is the good old-fashioned rolling double at a mere 15% bite.

A - 5, 9

B - 3, 8

C - 2, 4, 6

E.P. Taylor (Woodbine, Sunday, race 8, 4:56 p.m. ET)

No fewer than 10 of the 13 entered are foreign-breds, and six of those make their first start in North America, including a quintet of 3-year-old fillies.

Compared with the Canadian International, the invaders are not as accomplished. Parvaneh (#2) has won two group stakes in Germany, while Aim to Please (#10), Banzari (#6), and Best In The World (#3) all boast a single group III victory. Looking for their first graded or group stakes success of any kind are Nezwaah (#12) and Swiss Range (#1).

Rainha Da Bateria (#5) earned a berth in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (gr. IT) by winning the Canadian (gr. IIT) over the Woodbine course, but will bypass the Breeders' Cup race in favor of this easier chance to garner a grade I title. She narrowly fended off stablemate Dacita in the Canadian at 1 1/8 miles, though, and an additional furlong may be pushing the envelope.

Suffused (#4) came to hand nicely over the summer, climaxed by a solid score in the Glens Falls (gr. IIIT). This looks like the right race at the right time for the Juddmonte Farms' homebred.

Strut the Course (#8) was fourth, beaten two lengths, in the 2015 E.P. Taylor, but has lost a step this year.

A - 4, 5

B - 3, 10

C - 6, 8