Litfin At Large: Looking at State-Bred Stakes

Two weeks out from the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita Park, state-bred runners have their day in the sun, as Oct. 22 is Maryland Million Day at Laurel Park and also Empire Showcase Day at Belmont Park.

Both tracks have 11-race cards. Laurel gets underway at 12:15 p.m. EDT with seven stakes and a couple starter handicaps totaling $900,000 in purses for Maryland-sired horses. Belmont begins 10 minutes later with a card that features eight stakes worth $1.75 million.

Let's take some quick hits at some of the more noteworthy races on both circuits.

Maryland Million Turf (LRL, race 7, 3:33 p.m.)

Phlash Phelps (#10) won this race a year ago as the 9-5 favorite, and doesn't figure to be much higher than that despite drawing post 10 with a short run to the first turn. He comes off a tough-trip fifth in the Commonwealth Turf Cup (gr. IIT) first time out in three months, and will be singled on a lot of tickets in this first leg of a Pick 5.

Grandiflora (#6) beat Phlash Phelps in a maiden race over the course in 2014, and has run some of his fastest races this season.

The pace should be honest enough with Spartianos (#3) stretching out after setting the pace in two late-summer turf sprints.

Maryland Million Sprint (LRL, race 8, 4:06 p.m.)

It just wouldn't be Maryland Million Day without Ben's Cat (#1), who won the Turf Sprint three straight times (2010-12), before runner-up finishes in two editions of the Turf (2013-14) and a nose loss in the 2015 Sprint.

Ben's Cat has eight more wins (32), and has earned nearly twice as much ($2.64 million) as the rest of the field combined. Be that as it may, after starting his 10-year-old campaign with two wins, he has lost four in a row, and from the rail he may be hard-pressed to catch Morning Fire (#4).

Morning Fire has been idle six months since chasing in the Bachelor at Oaklawn Park, but that was a tough heat that produced Laz Barrera (gr. III) winner I Will Score as well as Texas Chrome, winner of the Super Derby (gr. III) and Oklahoma Derby (gr. III). He appears to have a pace advantage in a field without much other early speed.

Maryland Million Distaff (LRL, race 9, 4:40 p.m.)

Lovable Lady (#11) has an ample run to the turn, and seeks her fourth consecutive victory as a solid-looking choice at 8-5 on the morning line.

The main threat is Rocky Policy (#6), who was off slow and checked on the turn when fourth behind the choice in the Jameela on turf. Making her third start off a summer freshening, she is set up for a peak effort turning back from a win over allowance routers on the synthetic surface at Presque Isle Downs, and her past four workouts over the main track at Laurel have all been bullets.

The caveat? Neither has ever won at Saturday's seven furlongs.

Maryland Million Classic (LRL, race 10, 5:13 p.m.)

The climax to the stakes action could hardly be more wide open, as the 1-2-3 finishers from last year: Admirals War Chest (#4), Bullheaded Boy (#3), and I'm Mr. Blue (#2) are back, as is Titan Alexander, who finished sixth in the 2015 renewal but has since won four of five starts.

Admirals War Chest earned a lifetime best Equibase Speed Figure (106) going wire to wire a year ago, but this looks like a stronger field. While the 3-year-olds Just Jack (#7) and Flash McCaul (#6) are the first two choices on the morning line at 9-5 and 2-1, another sophomore, Pizmo Time (#10) rates a long look as well.

Pizmo Time is third off a layoff and is on a classic "bounce-rebound" pattern after running a new top ESF off a May-to-August break, followed by a mild regression first time going two turns on dirt.

Iroquois (BEL, race 3, 1:28 p.m.)

En route to an Eclipse Award, La Verdad won this race for a second straight time last year, and now it's up to her half sister, Hot City Girl (#1), to keep this 6 1/2-furlong sprint in the family for the same owner, trainer, and jockey connections.

On paper, the only one who can stop that from happening is Quezon (#3), who traded decisions with her over the summer, before running a close second in the Gallant Bloom Handicap (gr. II) three weeks ago.

Hudson (BEL, race 4, 2:01 p.m.)

Weekend Hideaway (#2) came out of the Vosburgh Invitational (gr. I) to run a close third in this race last year, and is on the same schedule as the logical choice in a short field. 

Capable of posting a mild upset is Ostrolenka (#5), who is four-for-six over Big Sandy, including the Sleepy Hollow at 2 and the Mike Lee at 3.

Maid Of the Mist (BEL, race 5, 2:34 p.m.)

No one has been hotter than Rudy Rodriguez lately, and either of his fillies, Tainted Angel (#5) or Bonita Bianca (#9), are capable of giving Seeking the Ante winner Iron Mizz (#1) a run for the money.

That said, Bree's Got Heart (#3) exhibits an angle espoused by handicapping essayist Joe Colville that has led to numerous good-priced winners: a third-time starter coming off an improved race second out, followed by an improved workout.

Mohawk (BEL, race 6, 3:07 p.m.)

The Sunshine Boys are back at it, as Lubash (#7), Kharafa (#1), and King Kreesa (#9), the past three winners of the Mohawk, square off for the umpteenth time. 

They have little margin for error against Offering Plan (#6) and Tapitation (#8), and Macagone (#2) could be gone if given free rein up front by Latigo Trail (#4).

Sleepy Hollow (BEL, race 7, 3:40 p.m.)

Prior to falling past the wire in the Hopeful (gr I), Runaway Lute (#7) won twice against New York-breds at Belmont by a combined 20 3/4 lengths. It's tough to trust early-season sprint performances by 2-year-olds when they stretch out in the fall, though, and some kind of case can be made for the nine others, all of which try one mile for the first time except for Tellmeafookystory (#10).

To my mind, two of the likeliest suspects are Gold for the King (#4) and Mission Command (#5), who both chased the talented Syndergaard at Saratoga Race Course.

Empire Distaff (BEL, race 8, 4:13 p.m.)

Wonder Gal (#2) bounced back from an off-the-board finish in the Test (gr. I) to win this 1 1/16-mile race decisively last year, and will try to rebound again as she stretches out after a fifth-place finish in the Gallant Bloom (gr. II). 

For multi-race exotics she's a stand-alone with me, although I can understand also using Bar of Gold (#1), who is four-for-four in New York-bred company.

Ticonderoga (BEL, race 9, 4:46 p.m.)

Fourstar Crook (#12) shoots for her seventh straight win and lays over the field. Breaking from the far outside is certainly not ideal, but she is a rate-and-finish type who'll probably be able to angle inward through the dog-leg turn to the backstretch. 

Last year's Ticonderoga winner, Invading Humor (#6), had clear leads on Fourstar Crook in the Yaddo and the John Hettinger but faded at crunch time.

Classic (BEL, race 10, 5:19 p.m.)

A terrific edition of this 1 1/8-mile route pits the 1-2 finishers from last year, Empire Dreams (#9) and Royal Posse (#6), against the top two state-bred 3-year-olds, Governor Malibu (#2) and Hit It Once More (#5).

Although it's fair to say Royal Posse prefers two turns, it's otherwise tough to knock a gelding who has won or placed in 12 consecutive starts since claimed for $20,000, including stakes wins at Aqueduct Racetrack, Gulfstream Park, and Saratoga.

Wake Up in Malibu (#1) needs to be considered too, since he beat Royal Posse in the Saginaw over this track in July. That was at 1 1/16 miles, however, and Royal Posse has a stellar 7-2-0 record from 10 starts going nine furlongs.