Getting Started on Breeders' Cup Handicapping

A week out from the Breeders' Cup races, it is very tempting to dive into the past performances for some intensive handicapping. But at this relatively early stage, before the final make-up of the fields and post positions are known, it's best to merely formulate a rough draft of potential wagering strategies, and avoid getting "married" to any particular horse(s).

So as a prelude to next week's analyses, let's briefly overview some aspects of the 13 races (all grade I) in chronological order (post times Pacific) and designate whether they are straightforward, chaotic, or somewhere in between. All Breeders' Cup races are grade I.

Friday, Nov. 4 Races

Juvenile Turf (race 6, 2:25 PT)

With a short run to the first turn and a full field, the post draw may influence the pecking order of the contenders, of which there are many.

What to do, for starters, with Wellabled, who is a photo finish away from a 4-for-4 record, but has garnered most of his experience sprinting on synthetic surfaces?

The pace projects to be hotly contested among Wellabled, Oscar Performance and perhaps Lancaster Bomber, who was the table-setter for his odds-on stablemate Churchill in the Dubai Dewhurst Stakes (gr. IT) and held second at 66-1.

Big Score has stretch-running local form, while the 2-for-2 Good Samaritan has worked sharply since taking the Summer (gr. IIT) at Woodbine.

This may be a "spread" situation for multi-race exotics.

Las Vegas Dirt Mile (race 7, 3:05)

With Bradeseter already declared out, and Midnight Storm presumably going in the Mile, the most plausible pace scenario, again, depending on post positions, puts Runhappy on the lead, with Dortmund breathing down his neck.

With just one race under his belt this year, and a disappointing one at that, it's difficult to envision Runhappy holding off the hulking chestnut behemoth. 

All five of Dortmund's defeats were in races won by either American Pharoah or California Chrome, and in their absence he will be tough to deny as a thoroughly legitimate favorite.

Juvenile Fillies Turf (race 8, 3:50)

La Coronel could hardly have been more impressive in winning her two turf routes by daylight, capped by the Jessamine (gr. IIIT).

Meanwhile, New Money Honey came out of her initial clash with La Coronel to win the Miss Grillo (gr. IIIT) stylishly at the expense of her stablemate, Rymska, who is eligible to move up off her United States debut.

Throw in several more European invaders with suitable credentials, as well as Natalma (gr. IT) heroine Victory to Victory, and possibilities abound.

Longines Distaff (race 9, 4:35)

Beholder (3), Stellar Wind, and Songbird have already combined to win five Eclipse Awards, and the latter is a shoo-in as top 3-year-old filly no matter what happens in this clash of champions.

This race is so tough, you'll probably get double-digit odds on I'm a Chatterbox, a multiple grade I winner coming off a lights-out performance in the Spinster (gr. I).

Saturday, Nov. 5 races

14 Hands Winery Juvenile Fillies (race 4, 12:05 p.m. PT)

No fewer than nine prospective starters come off wins, notably Jamyson 'n Ginger, a daughter of Bernardini   who sprouted water wings beating maidens by better than 15 lengths at sloppy Belmont Park.

I've got to use her, despite knowing she is unlikely to replicate that freakish performance. If she doesn't, a large handful seem evenly matched based on what they have shown so far, but locally based American Gal looks like she could be "any kind" for Bob Baffert.

Filly & Mare Turf (race 5, 12:43)

Lady Eli is the feel-good story of 2016 after winning the Flower Bowl Invitational (gr. IT) second time back from a year-long absence, but her stablemate Sea Calisi is no slouch and very likely to move up off her third in the Flower Bowl (gr. IT).

None of the Europeans are what you'd call 1 1/4-mile specialists, but Seventh Heaven (IRE) has accounted for two of Aidan O'Brien's 20 group I wins this year, and she handles firm ground.

TwinSpires Sprint (race 6, 1:21)

The draw and the break are always key factors, but not as much when only nine are signed on instead of the usual 14.

At this point, I still have checkmarks on A.P. Indian, Drefong, and Lord Nelson, but Masochistic has pointed to this all year and has worked nothing but bullets since a stroll in the Pat O'Brien (gr. II) earned him a fees-paid spot in the gate.

Turf Sprint (race 7, 2:05)

Twenty-eight (count 'em, 28) pre-entries have me putting this dash on the back burner until the draw. 

The 6 1/2-furlong turf races at Santa Anita notoriously favor those with past good form over the unique layout. This is one situation where Europeans and older horses lacking local experience are at a distinct disadvantage.

Horse-for-course prospects who should be generous prices are Ambitious Brew, a five-time winner down the hill; and Undrafted, who was a close third in the 2014 Turf Sprint.

Sentient Jet Juvenile (race 8, 2:43)

Still another instance where the draw may play a part in establishing A-B-C-X rankings, as these 2-year-olds negotiate a fairly short run to the initial bend.

This looks like a diverse and talented group: Gormley and Klimt have the home-field edge coming out of their 1-2 finish in the FrontRunner (gr. I), but Practical Joke and Syndergaard have done absolutely nothing wrong in New York; Not This Time comes off two blowout wins in Kentucky; and Three Rules has been unbeatable at Gulfstream Park, winning all five of his starts by a combined 31 lengths.

Longines Turf (race 9, 3:22)

Tough to get a handle on things here until it is known whether Found shoots for a second straight Turf win or opts for the Classic.

Flintshire merely reaffirmed his distaste for rain-softened ground when beaten at 1-5 in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (gr. IT) by Ectot, but the firm surface at Santa Anita seems tailor-made for him.

Highland Reel, already a group/grade I winner in Europe, Hong Kong, and the U.S., returned to form behind Found when second in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (gr. IT). He is fine with firm turf as well.

Filly & Mare Sprint (race 10, 4:01)

Looks like another 14-runner renewal of this seven-furlong tilt, including grade I winners Carina Mia and Curalina, who, knowing that discretion is the better part of valor, may turn back in distance rather than go two turns in the toughest Distaff to date.

One striking aspect is the lack of real sprinter's speed, which may work against defending titlist Wavell Avenue and other late runners like Irish Jasper and Haveyougoneaway.

Pass the Advil.

Mile (race 11, 4:40)

Last year's winner and Eclipse champ Tepin hasn't scared anyone away, in yet another race where it is futile to try and plot out positions until the draw. 

One contender who really, really loves firm going is Ironicus, who closed like he was shot out of a cannon when a head short of catching the admirable filly Miss Temple City in the Shadwell Turf Mile (gr. IT).

A number of Euros lend international intrigue, none more so than Limato, who is fresh off a smashing score in the Qatar Prix de la Foret (gr. IT) at odds-on.

Classic (race 12, 5:35)

Along with Friday's Distaff, this is the most compelling race of the series. California Chrome   has been King Kong through a jet-setting 6-for-6 campaign that has swelled his earnings past $13.4 million, but while he regularly runs grade I-type numbers, Arrogate comes off one other-worldly effort to win the Travers (gr. I) as if sent from another dimension, when he shattered General Assembly's 37-year-old Saratoga track record for 1 1/4 miles like breaking sticks.

And here's the thing: they both want the lead, or look as though they can sit right off it. So does this open the door for Frosted, who has been capable of stratospheric heights under the right circumstances?

I don't know, but if someone other than those three win it, I won't be cashing.

More study awaits.