After 10 Weeks Off, Arrogate Set for Classic

After winning last year's Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) at Keeneland with a well-rested 3-year-old American Pharoah  , trainer Bob Baffert hopes a similar approach with 3-year-old Arrogate pays off this season.

American Pharoah gave Baffert his second straight Classic victory last year when the Triple Crown winner won the 1 1/4-mile event off a nine-week break dating back to his runner-up finish in the Travers Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga Race Course. 

Baffert will start Juddmonte Farms' Arrogate off a 10-week break in this year's Classic Nov. 5 at Santa Anita Park. Like American Pharoah, Arrogate made his previous start in the Travers—winning that 1 1/4-mile race in record time—but with this year's Breeders' Cup going a weekend later, it adds an extra week of rest for the son of Unbridled's Song.

Baffert also will send out Karl Watson, Mike Pegram, and Paul Weitman's Hoppertunity off a more conventional four-week break. Of course the two horses are vastly different; 5-year-old, 22-race veteran Hoppertunity notched his second grade I win in his previous start, the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park | BloodHorse.com Track Profile">Belmont Park, while 3-year-old Arrogate was making just his fifth career start and graded stakes debut in the Travers.

Baffert not only is going for his third straight Classic win, but if he does it with Arrogate it would be the third straight time the trainer has won the race with a 3-year-old. In 2014 Bayern   scored a front-running victory in the Classic six weeks after rolling to a 5 1/2-length score in the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) at Parx Racing.

Arrogate set a track record in winning the Travers in 1:59.36. Baffert said he scored wins in three of his first four starts without being asked for his top effort—especially early. In his fifth start that changed as Arrogate and Mike Smith opened a two-length lead through a half-mile in :46.84 and only added to that advantage the rest of the way in the 13 1/2-length score.

"In those allowance races, we never let (Mike) turn him loose in those races," Baffert said. "He was winning in a gallop; he didn't even take a deep breath. (The Travers) was the first time we let him go all out."

Baffert is still learning about his new standout.

"We don't know how good he is," Baffert said. "I knew he had a chance to win the Travers, I knew he would run big, but I didn't know he was going to do that."

Since Sept. 10, Arrogate has worked eight times at Santa Anita. He delivered half-mile moves Sept. 10, Sept. 17, and Sept. 27, earning the bullet in that middle move at :46 3/5, best of 72 at the distance that day.

Baffert then sent Arrogate longer, going give five furlongs Oct. 6, then seven furlongs on both Oct. 12 and 18—well within himself. Baffert sent Arrogate six furlongs on Oct. 25, earning the bullet among six workers at 1:11 1/5.

Southern California works typically are listed as "handily" but Arrogate earned the rare "breezing" assessment in his final move, firing four furlongs in :46 4/5 Oct. 31, which was third-fastest of 54 at the distance that day.

Jockey Mike Smith believes Arrogate has thrived in the workouts. 

"He's been training unbelievably," Smith said. "He'll need to repeat the race he ran in the Travers to beat California Chrome   and the others, but he's got the talent."

According to numbers generated by STATS Race Lens looking at the trainer's races since 2012, Baffert wins at a 22% rate with a horse entered off a win and a rest of two or more months. That rate is similar to the trainer's usual 25% win rate during that time.

"He's been working really well," Baffert said. "He's shown us by working that you can shut him off or turn him on. He's a lot quicker than he looks. He's a big tall, lanky kind of horse that covers a lot of ground."