Litfin At Large: Breeders' Cup

In the I Told You So Department, it was suggested in this space last week to await Monday's post position draw before finalizing any wagering opinions about the 33rd edition of the Breeders' Cup.

No fewer than 162 horses entered the 13 races, all of which are grade I, and it's remarkable how many high-profile contenders drew challenging spots. In the 2-year-old races, such well-fancied runners as Oscar Performance (post 13 Juvenile Turf), La Coronel (post 14 Juvenile Fillies Turf), American Gal (post 12 Juvenile Filies) and Not This Time (post 10 Juvenile) all face a loss of ground in the short run to the first turn.

In the Turf Sprint, Pure Sensation finds himself buried on the rail, which is 1-for-the-meet going 6 ½ furlongs down the hill.

In the Mile, major pace player Midnight Storm must rocket away from stall 13, lest he get hung out to dry early.

As always, some of the races have solid-looking favorites and others are so wildly competitive as to appear virtually indecipherable. For multi-race exotic purposes, here are some thoughts and one handicapper's A-B-C rankings of the races in chronological order:

FRIDAY

Juvenile Turf (race 6)

A hot pace could develop among Lancaster Bomber (#1), Wellabled (#9) and Oscar Performance (#13). This may benefit Made You Look (#5), Big Score (#6), Intelligence Cross (#8) and Good Samaritan (#11), among others. Jeez, are all the races going to be this tough?

A – 5, 6, 8, 11, 13

B – 2, 4

C – 3, 10, 14

Las Vegas Dirt Mile (race 7)

Dortmund (#3) is one of the Breeders' Cup's most formidable favorites, having lost only in races won by either California Chrome   or American Pharoah  . For those who feel Runhappy (#7) has pressing questions regarding form and distance, the value may lie in forsaking the morning-line second choice and keying Dortmund with the rejuvenated Vyjack (#1), Tamarkuz (#8) and Gun Runner (#9).

A – 3

B – none

C – 1, 8, 9

Juvenile Fillies Turf (race 8)

Like its counterpart, the filly division is a highly entertaining and wide-open event. Many deep-pocketed bettors will consider using one of man's greatest inventions – the wheel. Anything sent out by someone named O'Brien makes the A-list, in this case Hydrangea (#1), Intricately (#7) and Roly Poly (#13). Spain Burg (#4) is 4 for 5 overseas and was purchased for €1.5 million after her latest score at Newmarket. New Money Honey (#3) and La Coronel (#14) are As as well.

A – 1, 3, 4, 7, 13, 14

B – 5, 11

C – 2, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12

Longines Distaff (race 9)

One of the biggest winners at the draw was Beholder (#8), who is outside Songbird (#1) and Stellar Wind (#5) in an unprecedented clash of three reigning Eclipse Award winners. This will almost surely lead to Beholder's preferred stalking trip in the clear, unlike her last two meetings with Stellar Wind when forced to set the pace inside. Meanwhile, Songbird looks like a dead-send from the one-hole in her first try against older mares.

A – 5, 8

B – 1

SATURDAY

14 Hands Winery Juvenile Fillies (race 4)

By any measure, Jamyson 'n Ginger (#7) earned the top number for all 2-year-olds when she beat maidens by better than 15 lengths in the slop at Belmont. While the Bernardini   filly is unlikely to replicate that effort, she could regress substantially and still be a factor. Otherwise, the locally-based runners With Honors (#2) and Noted and Quoted (#10) are accorded an edge over shippers Valadorna (#3), Yellow Agate (#4) and Sweet Loretta (#5). American Gal (#12) drew poorly for her initial route attempt and is on very short rest.

A – 2, 7, 10

B – 3, 4, 5, 12

Filly & Mare Turf (race 5)

Not only is Lady Eli (#8) back, the 2014 Juvenile Fillies Turf winner is faster than ever judging from the Equibase Speed Figures she earned in the Ballston Spa Stakes (gr. IIT) and Flower Bowl Invitational Stakes (gr. IT). Sea Calisi (#1) has run well in all four U.S. Starts and figures to move up off her third in the Flower Bowl behind her stablemate. Seventh Heaven (#3) had a brutal trip at Ascot last out, but 1 ½ miles is really her preferred distance. Queen's Trust (GB) (#11) was a solid second to the brilliant Minding in her last try at 1 ¼ miles.

A – 8

B – 1, 3, 11

TwinSpires Sprint (race 6)

 Masochistic (#7) boasts the  best form over the track with the departure of Lord Nelson, and he drew favorably. Drefong (#2) has won four in a row and meets older stakes horses for the first time after being handed the Ketel One King's Bishop Stakes (gr. I) on a platter. A. P. Indian (#5) has been running one fast race after another while compiling a six-for-six record this year.

A –  7

B – 2, 5

Turf Sprint (race 7)

Chad Brown won this race in 2014 with Bobby's Kitten on the turn-back, and attempts something similar with A Lot (#9), who has good back sprint form. Ambitious Brew (#10) and Holy Lute (#13) won divisions of the Eddie D Stakes (gr. IIIT) over the downhill course. Obviously (#2) runs in his fifth Breeders' Cup race after four tries in the Mile, but hasn't been 6 ½ furlongs since 2013. Pure Sensation (#1) and Celestine (#14) ran supersonic times on a souped-up Widener turf Belmont Stakes Day. Home of The Brave (#4), Karar (#5) and Suedois (#7) are live European invaders. Om (#12) is questionable at the distance, but fast enough and will be a price. As always the Turf Sprint is brutally tough to figure.

A – 9, 10, 13

B – 1, 2, 4, 14

C – 5, 7, 12

Sentient Jet Juvenile (race 8)

Wide open edition matches the top juveniles from New York, California, Kentucky, and Florida. Locally-based runners have won six of eight Juveniles at Santa Anita, so the lean is to the 1-2 finishers from the FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I), Klimt (#1) and Gormley (#7). The latter inherited an easy lead when a loose horse bothered the anticipated pacesetter that day, but he is not getting the lead from Syndergaard (#2), who lost a heart-breaker to Practical Joke (#9) in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I). Cases can also be made for Theory(#4), Classic Empire (#5), Three Rules (#6) and Not This Time (#10).

A – 1, 7

B – 2, 5, 9

C – 4, 6, 10

Longines Turf (race 9)

Flintshire (#4), Found (#10) and Highland Reel (#12) are world-class runners and appear a cut above the rest. But if Money Multiplier (#9) is really going to be 20-1, he rates a flier off a troubled second behind Flintshire at Saratoga; throw out his latest on yielding turf.

A – 4, 10, 12

B – none

C – 9

Filly & Mare Sprint (race 10)

As she showed winning the Eight Belles (gr. II) and Acorn Stakes (gr. I), Carina Mia (#8) is at her best with rate-and-finish tactics in one-turn races from seven to eight furlongs. She gets the benefit of the doubt for the Ballerina Stakes (gr. I), in which she was hard-used through a blazing second quarter and weakened late behind Haveyougoneaway (#2) and By the Moon (#6). Tara's Tango (#3) and Finest City (#12) are locally-based fillies who wound up in a photo going seven-eighths early in the season.

A – 3, 8, 12

B – 2, 6

Mile (race 11)

Alice Springs (#2) is a classy European who has run well in the U.S. And likes firm ground. Defending titlist Tepin (#8) couldn't get to Photo Call (#6) at 2-5 last out, but the latter figures to be occupied with Midnight Storm (#13) this time. Tourist (#5) and Ironicus (#9) will be rolling late, as will Spectre (#3). The horse for course long shot is What a View (#1). Limato (#10) is unproven at a mile, but is Europe's best up to seven furlongs.

A – 2, 8, 9

B – 3, 10, 13

C – 1, 6

Classic (race 12)

California Chrome (#4) has looked invincible this year. Arrogate (#10) is unbeaten going two turns, capped by an historic Travers Stakes (gr. I) performance. A fascinating cat-and-mouse situation may well unfold between these two on the front-end.

Pick four tickets that have made it this far are sitting pretty.

A – 4, 10

B – none

C – none