Predicteform United Nations Analysis

Ghurair, above winning a race on June 7 at Belmont Park, is a top contender for the United Nations Stakes on Sunday at Monmouth Park. The race will be televised on Fox Sports 1 with live action beginning at 5 p.m. ET. (Photo by Adam Coglianese/NYRA)
While the Grade 1 United Nations Stakes is a Breeders' Cup “Win and You’re In” qualifier (which means the winning horse gets to run in the Breeders' Cup Turf with his entry fee of $60,000 paid plus a travel allowance of $10,00 if U.S.-based and $40,000 if internationally stabled covered), the field has come up relatively light considering.
These 10 runners are a combined two for 25 in Grade 1 stakes competition (over their last 10 starts) which makes for an even playing field on the track. at Monmouth Park. It makes sense that there is a field of ten (including two European runners), looking to steal a Grade 1 and get a free ride to the Breeders' Cup.
Predicteform Pace Figures for United Nations
Charming Kitten
The top trainer and owner in the country (Todd Pletcher and Ken Ramsey, respectively) send this gritty 4-year-old colt to the gate after winning the 2-mile Belmont Gold Cup on Belmont Stakes day. He draws the rail and gets Joe Bravo aboard, two pluses in this three-turn route race.
Looking at his Pace Figures three races back, you'll notice a lifetime top of 81.4 (March 29, 2014) followed by a 72.6 on April 24. This 8.8-point regression came with a cut back in distance from 1 ½ miles to 1 1/16 miles. In his most recent effort at 2 miles, Charming Kitten ran a 78.6, a strong figure, especially considering the distance. In similar fashion from his March 29 to April 24 start, he cuts back in distance from 2 miles to 1 3/8 miles off a high final Pace Figure which could be telling.
The Play: Fringe contender – rail, top Monmouth jock off a 2-mile route, this one is hard to figure either way.

Races: 12

Avg. Final Pace: 71.7

Avg. 4F Pace: 56.2

Current Pattern:NONE

Ghurair 
The most lightly raced runner in the field with only seven starts lifetime, this 4-year-old raced three times in 2012, twice in 2013 and makes his third start in 2014 in the United Nations. One of the top trainers in the country and grass specialist Chad Brown combines with Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens for a formidable but unlikely pairing.
And while his two U.S. starts have produced Final Pace Figures barely above 71, well less than others in here, he is currently on Turf Decline Line. TDL occurs when the 4f Pace Figure declines to the lowest point while the final Pace Figure remains consistent (71.6/41.9 most recent from a 70.7/51.2 on May 3). His turf spread (final Pace Figure minus 4f figure) is almost 30 points, an indication of a runner who manages energy very well and should like added distance.
The Play: Contender – Trainer, jockey and TDL Form Cycle Pattern outweigh his slower final figures, the top pick at odds greater than his morning line of 3-to-1.

Races: 2

Avg. Final Pace: 71.2

Avg. 4F Pace: 46.5

Current Pattern: TDL

Twilight Eclipse
Another runner who last ran in the 2-mile Belmont Gold Cup, this 5-year-old raced on the front for a good portion of the race before getting tired in the stretch. His final Pace Figure was 77.9, a strong figure for such a long race and near a lifetime top.
Looking at his Pace Figures, you'll notice he has been successful at 1 3/8 miles with a record of one win and one second from three starts though his final Pace Figures from each race have hovered around 74 (73.5, 73.9, 74.2 to be exact).
The Play: Regression – his last effort of 77.9 on the front end combined with an average final figure of 74 for the distance are not positive signs. As a morning-line 5-to-2 favorite there is no value.

Races: 12

Avg. Final Pace: 74.6

Avg. 4F Pace: 51.6

Current Pattern: NONE

Manchurian High
This 6-year-old ships in from Baltimore having run only two lifetime graded stakes, finishing sixth and eighth, respectively. He makes his second start of the year and goes 2 1/2 furlongs longer after running a lifetime top final Pace Figure of 77.0 his last start.
Do note his 4f figure of 70.2 that accompanied the 77.0 which indicates a runner who is pretty quick out of the gate. The increase in his 4f Pace Figure over the course of three races (from 56.7 to 59.2 to 70.2) also supports a horse who is getting faster in the middle of the race and someone you could expect to see close to the lead.
The Play: Fader – longer distance off a lifetime top Pace Figure indicates a runner who is more likely to struggle at the distance.

Races: 12

Avg.Final Pace: 70.5

Avg. 4F Pace: 58.2

Current Pattern: NONE

Main Sequence
One of two European runners, he will make his first start for new trainer Graham Motion, a respected trainer in the U.S. This 5-year-old makes his first start in 10 months having never raced on a fast (non-wet) grass surface. Motion adds Lasix for the first time, adding to his intrigue. Also note that he skipped the big purse money in Dubai in March opting for his U.S. debut in this “Win and You're in” race.
He was a winner first time out as a 2-year-old and finished first and third off 6-month layoffs at 3 and 4 years old, respectively. This pattern of success off a layoff indicates a runner who can compete after not having raced in months. His workout pattern is consistent, working almost weekly since mid-April.
The Play: Price play – While no Pace Figures exist for Main Sequence, his work pattern. ability to fire fresh and consistent success on grass (in Europe) put him in the mix.
Exclusive Strike
One of two 7-year-olds in the field, Exclusive Strike makes his second start of 2014 for trainer Jason Servis who runs very well at Monmouth. He is one of two runners who has won at 1 3/8 miles and has been in the money three of five times at the distance. Also note that he is 5-for-8 lifetime at Monmouth and has more career wins at this track then the rest of the field combined.
Turning to his final Pace Figures, his last three 1 3/8-mile races are 68.6, 72.9 and 73.1 which is probably not enough in here.
The Play: Too Slow - while his last effort of 62.4/52.9 (final/4f Pace Figure) is excusable, his lifetime top of 74.6 is probably not competitive. Only support Exclusive Strike if you are a true believer in “horses for courses.”

Races: 12

Avg. Final Pace: 71.5

Avg. 4F Pace: 55.8

Current Pattern: NONE

Kaigun
This 4-year-old Canadian-bred has raced better than the public has expected in three Grade 1s in 2014 (while being sent off at an average of more than 20-to-1), finishing just a few lengths behind Wise Dan, the best male grass horse in the U.S. (hands down) in two of those races.
His Final Pace Figures have been ultra-consistent as seen by the tight range of 75.5 to 77.2 over the last five starts. Also note his increasing turf spread from 13.4 (April 11, 2014) to 16.6 (May 3) to 23.5 (June 7) in his last three starts. On a PLOW Form Cycle Pattern (and similar to the TDL), the Pace Low (PLOW) is when a horse runs a slower 4f Pace Figure then the race prior on turf while maintaining a consistent Final figure. The only concern is the stretch out from 1 ¼ miles to 1 3/8 miles, the longest distance he has attempted in his career.
The Play: Contender – Consistent final figures combined simultaneously with increasing turf spread indicates a runner who is managing energy better each start.

Races: 12

Avg. Final Pace: 72.8

Avg. 4F Pace: 60.8

Current Pattern: PLOW

Winning Cause
Todd Pletcher's other starter, he's run 10 times over the last year with only one win. He most recent start was at Monmouth on June 8, 2014, when he ran an 80.3/67 (final/4f), the fastest Final Pace Figure of all 10 starters. The 80.3 was also a lifetime top and a 7.6-point increase from his prior effort.
Looking over his previous big final figures of 79.9 (Aug. 21, 2013) and 78.1 (Oct. 26, 2013), significant regression followed each.
The Play: Regression – Lifetime top combined with added distance is a tough combination to overcome.

Races: 12

Avg. Final Pace: 74.9

Avg. 4F Pace: 62.2

Current Pattern: NONE

Lochte
His rise from a $25,000 claimer to Grade 1 winner is an owner's dream. After winning the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap at 39.30-to-1, he went on to continue to compete at the highest level. Sometimes, when a horse gets confidence, there is no telling how far they can go … until his start on June 8, 2014.
He finished 13th as the 2-to-11 favorite while putting up a final Pace Figure of 74.2. Prior to that race his final Pace Figure was a 74.1, a near “paired-up top.”
The Play: Regression - while not a formal Form Cycle Pattern, a horse who runs the same final Pace Figure back to back is more likely to regress.

Races: 12

Avg. Final Pace: 72.3

Avg. 4F Pace: 64.8

Current Pattern: NONE

Side Glance
The second of the European runners, Side Glance is a 7-year-old who has earned more than $2.4-million in his racing career, three times more than his nearest competitor in the race. And while he has finished fourth in the Dubai World Cup ($10-million purse) in 2013 and 2014, his form, purely based off finishes looks to be off.
From a Pace Figure perspective, he's made two U.S. starts: The 2013 Arlington Million, running a 77.4/60 (final/4f), and the 2011 Woodbine Mile Stakes, running a 76.4/65.1.
The Play: Off Form – while his two final figures would be competitive, he is more off form than on and draws an outside post in a 3-turn marathon.

Races: 2

Avg. Final Pace: 76.9

Avg. 4F Pace: 62.6

Current Pattern: PLOW

$500,000 United Nations StakesSunday, Monmouth Park, Race 12, 6:13 p.m. ET1 3/8 miles, turf, 3-year-olds and olderTV coverage: Fox Sports 1 from 5-6:30 p.m. ET

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

1

Charming Kitten

Joe Bravo

Todd A. Pletcher 

2

Ghurair

Gary L. Stevens

Chad C. Brown 

3

Twilight Eclipse

Jose Lezcano

Thomas Albertrani 

4

Manchurian High

Forest Boyce

Lilli Kurtinecz

5

Main Sequence

Rajiv Maragh

H. Graham Motion

6

Exclusive Strike

Paco Lopez

Jason Servis 

7

Kaigun

Alan Garcia

Mark E. Casse 

8

Winning Cause

Chris P. DeCarlo

Todd A. Pletcher 

9

Lochte

Orlando Bocachica

Marcus J. Vitali

10

Side Glance (GB)

Jamie P. Spencer

Andrew Balding