The complexion of two of the biggest stakes on Churchill Downs' fall schedule hinges on whether a pair of Breeders' Cup runners-up take one more stab at ending their 2016 campaigns on winning notes.
Gun Runner, second behind Tamarkuz in the Nov. 4 Las Vegas Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I), and Valadorna, who rallied for place money in the 14 Hands Winery Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I) Nov. 5, are under consideration for the $500,000 Clark Handicap Presented by Norton Healthcare (gr. I) Nov. 25 and $200,000 Golden Rod Stakes (gr. II) Nov. 26, respectively, with each expected to vie for favoritism should they appear in the entry box.
Owned by Winchell Thoroughbreds and Three Chimneys Farm, Gun Runner's presence in the 1 1/8-miles Clark Handicap would give the son of Candy Ride another chance to earn the grade I triumph that has thus far eluded him. The resident iron horse of this year's 3-year-old male ranks, Gun Runner has shown up for nearly every dance since opening his season with a victory in the Veterans Ford Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, running third in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I), third in the grade I Travers Stakes, and giving another honest account of himself in the Dirt Mile.
After working five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 at Churchill Nov. 14, with another move scheduled for Nov. 21, Gun Runner could add to a Clark cast expected to feature grade I winners Shaman Ghost, Hoppertunity, and Noble Bird.
"We'll take a look at it and see what happens," said David Fiske, manager for Winchell Thoroughbreds. "A lot of it depends on the weather. If it's an off track, he definitely won't run. But it was kind of always in the back of everyone's mind once he came home from California that he'd be (at Churchill), and if he seemed to be doing good and if he recovered from the Breeders' Cup sufficiently—if, if, if ,if—maybe we'd take a look at it.
"(A grade I win) is kind of the one thing that is missing from his résumé."
Clark or no Clark, the plan for Gun Runner is for him to be a force to be reckoned with in 2017.
A 4-year-old campaign is in the works for the chestnut runner and, given the paucity of confirmed contenders so far for the $12 million Pegasus World Cup (gr. I) Jan. 28 at Gulfstream Park, Fiske isn't ruling out taking a pretty big swing to start the season.
"We'd consider it. We don't have a slot in the gate but ... right now it's California Chrome , Arrogate, and 10 more slots," Fiske said. "It's not something we're definitely pointing for, but if he's doing good, we'll definitely think about it. (Owner) Ron (Winchell) is usually pretty game to do different stuff, and Mr. (Goncalo) Torrealba (of Three Chimneys) is always game. Anything is possible."
Trainer Mark Casse believes he has a possible Longines Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) contender in Stonestreet Stables' homebred Valadorna, a notion the daughter of Curlin solidified when she fell just three-quarters of a length short in the Juvenile Fillies. Valadorna turned in her first move since that outing, working four furlongs in :47 4/5 at Churchill Nov. 18.
"It's still under discussion," Casse said of the Golden Rod. "I'm going to have to discuss it with Stonestreet management but, right now, I would say she is on schedule to run if we so choose."
Should Casse opt to bypass the Golden Rod with Valadorna, he would still be represented by John Oxley's Dream Dancing, who breezed a half-mile in :48 and would be making her first start since a fifth-place finish in the Darley Alcibiades (gr. I) Oct. 6 at Keeneland.
"I just think she's a talented horse," Norman Casse, top assistant to his father, said of Dream Dancing. "When she came in and ran (fourth) in the Pocahontas, I think she really needed the race. It was her first start on the dirt and then she had a bad trip in the Alcibiades, and she's got to train up to this race and she's worked really well at this race track."
Noble Bird—winner of the 2015 Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. I) at Churchill—was also on the Nov. 18 worktab, going a half-mile in :47 4/5 in preparation for what Casse hopes is the son of Birdstone 's third straight stakes victory. He will enter the Clark off stakes wins in the Lukas Classic Oct. 1 and the Hagyard Fayette (gr. II) at Keeneland Oct. 29, when he broke the Lexington oval's track record for 1 1/8 miles with a final time of 1:47.75.
"It was a typical work for Noble Bird," Norman Casse said. "I'm really excited about him running. I think that he has a big shot to win the Clark. I'm just really happy with the way he's coming into the race. He's obviously won two good races in a row. I'm feeling like between the barn and (jockey) Julien (Leparoux), we've figured him out a little bit better and he's worked really well coming up to this race.
"We just stay out of his way and we pick spots where there isn't a whole lot of speed. I think that Julien has been learning about him a little bit more now that he's been on him a few more times. We know that he loves Churchill, we know that he's training well, (and) we know that he's going to get an early lead, so I think he's got a big shot at winning another grade I."