Sassy Little Lila Should Jump Up, Arrogate Looks Tough

Formerly positioned in the middle of the season, Saturday's $300,000 American Oaks (gr. IT) for 3-year-old fillies at Santa Anita Park is now the final grade 1 event of the year.

A baker's dozen entered the 15th running of the race, which is scheduled for 1 1/4 miles on turf, and begins on the hillside course before crossing over the dirt track to join the main grass course. Keep in mind, however, that rain is forecast for Southern California Saturday, and if the dirt is deemed unsuitable for these grass fillies, the race could be shortened to 1 1/8 miles.

The following day, the 2017 season starts with a bang at The Great Race Place, when shoo-in Eclipse Award champion 3-year-old male Arrogate makes his 4-year-old debut against four opponents in the $200,000 San Pasqual (gr. II) at 1 1/16 miles.

American Oaks (Saturday, race 8, 4 p.m. PT)

I've got preliminary checkmarks on seven of these fillies, five of which are already graded stakes winners. In post order, they are:

Stays in Vegas (#2): Makes her second start of the month after setting the pace in the Matriarch (gr. IT) and losing a heartbreaker to the accomplished older mare Miss Temple City and Roca Rojo. That was her best effort to date, but also the third time since June that she surrendered a clear lead at the stretch call. 

Cheekaboo (#5):Idle for 10 weeks since failing to fire over soft ground in the Valley View (gr. IIIT), she returns to the scene of her biggest victory in the Honeymoon (gr. IIT) back in June. The layoff shouldn't scare anyone away, as trainer Peter Eurton had Bettys Bambino ready to win last week's San Simeon (gr. IIIT) off a 22-month absence.

Sassy Little Lila (#6): Yet to win a stake, but this daughter of Artie Schiller   may have the most upside of anyone in the field. Consider that she wired maidens in the meet finale at Saratoga Race Course—from post 12—in 1:45.9, running the last three-eighths of a mile in 34.04 seconds and narrowly missing the 1 1/8-mile record on the inner turf. At Belmont Park a few weeks later, she stretched out to 1 1/4 miles and garnered her first-level allowance condition, completing the final quarter-mile in 22.67 seconds over ground rated "good." She comes off a highly promising stakes debut in the Winter Memories at Aqueduct, when she rated off the pace, rallied along the inside and finished a close second to My Impression, who had won the Commonwealth Oaks (gr. IIIT) earlier in the fall.

Decked Out (#7): Rain would be fine with this Street Boss   filly, who posted her lone stakes score over a yielding Santa Anita turf course in the Providencia (gr. IIIT) back in April. She has been off the board in both attempts at 1 1/4 miles, but had some traffic trouble when last seen against older in the Rodeo Drive (gr. IT) three months ago.

Queen Blossom (#8): The wild card in the race makes her United States debut, and her first start since early spring. She won the Lodge Park EBF Park Express Stakes (gr. IIIT) off a five-month layoff to start the season, and shows a slate of promising workouts at Fair Hill for Graham Motion, who has won with four of his past eight starters in Southern California, including three stakes.

Sheeza Milky Way (#10): She made four local starts during the first half of the year, beating Mokat in a first-level allowance and missing by a half-length to Stays in Vegas in the Senorita (gr. IIIT) when last seen in early May--another layoff runner from Peter Eurton to consider.

Mokat (#13): This filly by Uncle Mo   has been away since a wide bid fell short in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (gr. IT), but both of her victories, including the San Clemente Handicap (gr. IIT) have come when fresh, albeit at Del Mar. 

At the bottom line, Sassy Little Lila meets no world beaters among the local contingent; she has the potential to control the pace, is highly tractable and packs a solid finishing kick. Queen Blossom is the X-factor with first-time Lasix.

For multi-race wagering purposes:

A - 6

B - 2, 8

C - 5, 7, 10, 13

San Pasqual (Sunday, race 8, 4 p.m. PT)

There's always the possibility of strange things happening when the big favorite in a five-horse field is clearly prepping for bigger and better things. And of course, for Arrogate (#5), this is merely a bridge to the upcoming Pegasus World Cup (gr. I) and a rematch against California Chrome Jan. 28 at Gulfstream Park.

Even so, Arrogate is 5 for 5 around two turns and has drawn perfectly outside, which allows Mike Smith to play things off the break. In all likelihood, he will win at miserly odds without drawing a deep breath, in much the same way California Chrome walked his beat recently at Los Alamitos, when he waltzed home in the Winter Challenge by a dozen lengths.

The strange things that could happen:

If the track is something other than fast—not ideal for a long-striding type like Arrogate—and he proves to be a mere mortal while not fully cranked up by Bob Baffert.

OR ...

Midnight Storm (#4), whose past five starts include four graded stakes wins and a good third in the Breeders' Cup Mile (gr. IT), sets up shop on an easy lead.

OR ...

Arrogate becomes a bit too keen off the eight-week break and hooks up with Midnight Storm, thereby setting the table for Accelerate (#2), who had won three in a row prior to just missing second in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I).

Will any of the above happen? Probably not, but nothing's for sure in this game, which is why they run the races, after all.