Making the Grade: Eye on Equibase Speed Figures
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Sweet Reason is the top 2-year-old according to Equibase Speed Figures. The filly's speed figure is 4 points higher than the second highest figure (Photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire).
Speed figures are a useful tool for racing fans and handicappers when trying to evaluate horse racing performances at various distances and on multiple surfaces.
The speed figure makers take the information at their disposal - including whether the track was especially fast or slow that day and the time of the race compared with races at the same distance the same day, among many others - to come up with a number that is representative of the performance that, in theory, can be used to compare horses.
With that in mind, I took an early look at the Equibase Speed Figures of this year’s 2-year-olds to try and identify some possible early storylines or standouts for this week’s Making the Grade blog.
The tables below provide the top 10 speed figures earned by 2-year-old males and 2-year-old fillies in stakes races as well as the top 20 (actually 21 as there was a tie) speed figures earned overall by 2-year-olds regardless of sex of level of competition.
Right away, a point of interest jumped out. Not only is Spinaway Stakes winner Sweet Reason by far the fastest 2-year-old filly so far in 2013, she’s also the fastest 2-year-old, including males.
Top 2-year-old Equibase Speed Figures (male and female, all races)
Rank
Horse
Purse Earnings
Win%
Speed Figure
1
Sweet Reason
$237,600
100%
112
2
Big Sugar Soda
$67,500
33%
108
3
Ride On Curlin
$34,929
33%
105
4
Burning Warrior
$45,600
100%
101
4
Stopchargingmaria
$108,000
50%
101
6
Bet On Soup
$25,305
33%
100
6
Strong Mandate
$230,400
67%
100
6
Sunday Rules
$130,500
100%
100
9
True Thought
$37,168
100%
99
10
Lunarwarfare
$68,200
33%
98
10
Miss Behaviour
$87,000
100%
98
10
Protonico
$22,800
100%
98
10
Untapable
$128,125
100%
98
10
Yes I'm Lucky
$113,000
75%
98
15
Artemis Agrotera
$42,000
100%
97
15
My Brown Eyed Guy
$154,730
75%
97
15
Stonetastic
$56,621
50%
97
15
Sweet Emma Rose
$35,700
50%
97
19
Diamond Bachelor
$105,000
100%
96
19
Financial Mogul
$65,200
50%
96
19
Long On Value
$82,800
75%
96
Sweet Reason has won her two career starts by a combined margin of 12 lengths for trainer Leah Gyamati and owner Treadway Racing. She followed up a debut win at 9.80-to-1 odds in August at Saratoga with another dominant win at the Spa in the Spinaway Stakes on Sept. 1.
By 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, Sweet Reason is a half-sister (same dam [mother], different sire [father]) to graded stakes winner Don’t Forget Gil, who finished second in the 1 ¼-mile, Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks in 2009.
With a 14-point jump from a 98 Equibase Speed Figure to a 112 in her second start, plus the pedigree to be able to continue to excel as the distances get longer, Sweet Reason is definitely one to watch on the road to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.
Burning Warrior and Strong Mandate produced the top two Equibase Speed Figures by males in stakes races. The latter was most impressive in winning the Hopeful Stakes. I profiled him last week in my Making the Grade blog and was blown away by one of the best 1 ¼-mile pedigrees I’ve ever seen.
2-Year-Old Males in Stakes
Horse
Race
Track
Date
Speed Figure
Burning Warrior
Louisiana Cup Juvenile S.
Louisiana
08/17/2013
101
Strong Mandate
Hopeful S.
Saratoga
09/02/2013
100
Yes I'm Lucky
Tyro S.
Monmouth Park
08/04/2013
98
My Brown Eyed Guy
Florida Stallion Affirmed S.
Calder
08/24/2013
97
Long On Value
Strike Your Colors S.
Delaware Park
07/29/2013
96
Diamond Bachelor
Oak Tree Juvenile Turf S.
Del Mar
09/04/2013
96
Boji Moon
Iowa Cradle S.
Prairie Meadows
08/03/2013
95
Corfu
Saratoga Special S.
Saratoga
08/11/2013
95
Wired Bryan
Saratoga Special S.
Saratoga
08/11/2013
95
Zdeno
Winnipeg Futurity
Assiniboia
09/07/2013
95
As for Burning Warrior, he won his two career races, both sprinting, by a combined margin of 15 ¾ lengths at Louisiana Downs. Clearly, he’s quite fast but we won’t know if he’s a legitimate contender for either the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile or the 2014 spring classics until he steps up in competition. He’s by a sire, A. P. Warrior, who won graded stakes around two turns on grass and dirt, so perhaps Burning Warrior could find success stretching out.
A couple of others from the above list to keep an eye on:
Diamond Bachelor has won twice at a mile on turf and drew high praise from his trainer, Patrick Biancone, “He is one of the best at [his] age I’ve ever trained.” Biancone said he will keep him on the turf for this year, so the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf should be an appealing option.
My Brown Eyed Guy won both the Dr. Fager and Affirmed divisions of the Florida Stallion Stakes Series and has won three in a row by open lengths.
Long On Value put together a three-race winning streak, including stakes victories at Colonial Downs on turf and Delaware Park on dirt, before an unplaced finish in the Hopeful. The muddy track that day for the Hopeful was an odd consistency, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see him bounce back from his worst career Equibase Speed Figure for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott.
Don’t give up on Big Sugar Soda after his Hopeful fourth-place finish. He posted a huge 108 Equibase Speed Figure in his second start, the second-fastest figure by a 2-year-old this year, before a major regression on the muddy track for the Hopeful. He also was bumped at the start in the Hopeful, so I’m inclined to give him another race for trainer Steve Asmussen before casting judgment.
Moving back to the fillies, Stopchargingmaria, the Spinaway runner-up, also is intriguing based upon an improvement from a 90 Equibase Speed Figure in her debut to a 101 in the Spinaway in her second race. The Spinaway was contested on a sloppy track, so perhaps Stopchargingmaria just didn’t relish the wet surface as much as Sweet Reason. Her connections seemed to feel that she handled the wet track fine, however, and it might just be a case of being second best to a very promising filly. Either way, an 11-point improvement in her second start bodes well for Stopchargingmaria.
The top-ten stakes speed figures for the fillies also includes the top three from the Pochahontas Stakes on Sept. 7 and the top two from the Del Mar Debutante Stakes on Aug. 31.
Sunday Rules won the Generous Portion Stakes on Aug. 28 at Del Mar looks like a potentially blazing fast sprinter. Her sire, Tribal Rule, was a lightning-fast son of influential sire Storm Cat. Tribal Rule only made four career starts but he was freaky fast. Sunday Rules showed some of that freakishness in the Generous Portion when she blistered the opening half-mile in :44.32 en route to a front-running, 8 ½-length runaway on the synthetic Polytrack surface. I don’t see two turns or the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies in Sunday Rules’ future, but I think we’ll be hearing much more from this filly out in Southern California for trainer Mike Mitchell.
2-Year-Old Fillies in Stakes
Horse
Race
Track
Date
Speed Figure
Sweet Reason
Spinaway S.
Saratoga
09/01/2013
112
Stopchargingmaria
Spinaway S.
Saratoga
09/01/2013
101
Sunday Rules
Generous Portion S.
Del Mar
08/28/2013
100
Miss Behaviour
Sorority S.
Monmouth Park
09/01/2013
98
Untapable
Pocahontas S.
Churchill Downs
09/07/2013
98
Stonetastic
Pocahontas S.
Churchill Downs
09/07/2013
97
Scandalous Act
Florida Stallion Susan's Girl S.
Calder
08/24/2013
94
She's a Tiger
Del Mar Debutante S.
Del Mar
08/31/2013
94
Rosalind
Pocahontas S.
Churchill Downs
09/07/2013
94
Fascinating
Del Mar Debutante S.
Del Mar
08/31/2013
93