With California Chrome's Wide Post, Arrogate the Pick

The eyes of the racing world are trained on the inaugural running of the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) Jan. 28 at Gulfstream Park, where California Chrome   and Arrogate, respectively voted Horse of the Year and Longines World's Best Racehorse of 2016 in recent days, pick up where they left off after a thrilling Breeders' Cup Classic (G1).

As if the richest race in history needed any further drama, Arrogate (#1) got the rail when post positions for the $12 million spectacle were drawn Monday, and California Chrome (#12) will begin from the dreaded post 12, barring any late scratches from the main body of the race.

The Pegasus is the last of 12 races Saturday, and the concluding leg of a $1 million late pick four (races 9-12), a $500,000 late pick five (8-12), and, for those so inclined, a Rainbow 6 (7-12) offering $300,000 for a single winner. The race will be televised live on NBC from 4:30-6 p.m. ET.

All the Rainbow 6 races are stakes except for race 8, a seven-furlong maiden special weight for 3-year-olds in which Todd Pletcher unveils Blind Ambition, a fast-working Tapit   colt sure to be favored.

The early pick five includes the $100,000 Hurricane Bertie (G3), which is race 3, as well as the first running of the $400,000 Poseidon Handicap (race 5).

Let's go through four of the stakes in order of importance.

Pegasus World Cup (race 12, 5:40 ET)

So, just how significant was the post draw?

It doesn't appear to be a big deal for Arrogate, who is 2-for-2 from the rail including a historical Travers Stakes (G1) performance on the front-end. Keep in mind, though, that while Arrogate technically led at every call in the "Midsummer Derby," he was actually third or fourth in the initial run past the stands, and was able to go through a large opening conveniently left by his stablemate, American Freedom, who began from post 2; no similar favors will be forthcoming in this situation. He will have to hustle out of there. 

In the "Be Careful What You Wish For Department," California Chrome's connections were surely hoping North America's richest Thoroughbred would not draw the rail, since he much prefers running outside other horses if not able to control the pace. And while horses can and do make a mockery of statistical analyses and perceived track trends every day of the week, there is some formidable history he must run through:

* In Gulfstream's two-turn dirt races from July through October 2016, and since the start of the current meet Dec. 3, horses breaking any further out than post 8 are 0 for 36.

* Since the main track was enlarged from one mile to 1 1/8 miles in 2006, the only winner among 18 starters from post 12 at 1 1/8 miles was Big Brown   in the 2008 Florida Derby (G1).

What the draw did is increase the likelihood of a prolonged confrontation up front, since both stars have to break running. And while Gulfstream has a speed-favoring reputation (and tracks everywhere are notoriously tilted to inside speed on big days), the fact remains that, if anything, the surface has leaned to off-the-pace runners this winter. From opening day through last Sunday, the main track has been characterized as out of the ordinary six of 37 racing days according to the Racing Flow track bias and race shape figures (racingflow.com), and four of those days favored closers.

It's a compelling matchup: The world's richest horse making his final start against a colt who has blazed an unprecedented path into racing lore. Everyone knows how well California Chrome has stood the test of time, but no one knows what the limits might be for Arrogate after just six starts.

I know Arrogate had to dodge the rain getting ready, but it may well be that missing the San Pasqual (G2) will have him super sharp, which could be a good thing from post 1, plus nobody does fresh better than Bob Baffert.

At the bottom line, Arrogate was able to run down California Chrome despite the latter having everything his own way at Santa Anita last fall, and he still has license to improve. For multi-race purposes, though, I'll use both, figuring any live tickets going in are 90-95 percent to be live coming out.

A - 1, 12

For intra-race purposes, my only opinion is that Shaman Ghost (#7) will show up with something approximating his effort in the Woodward Stakes (G1), which probably isn't enough to beat either of the favorites but would be good enough to hit the board. His third in the Clark (G1) was not a true bill, as that race was an afterthought once he missed the Breeders' Cup Classic. You know the house horse is going to fire.

For every $10 of trifectas: ($6) 1-12-7; ($4) 12-1-7

William L. McKnight Handicap (race 11, 4:50 ET)

Among the full field of 12 are horses who have accounted for three of the past four W.L. McKnight (G3T) wins: Charming Kitten (#6), who won the 1 1/2-mile race here in 2015; and the venerable Twilight Eclipse (#7), who won back-to-back renewals for Tom Albertrani when it was run at Calder Race Course (now Gulfstream Park West) in 2012 and 2013, the latter an off-the-turf edition.

Twilight Eclipse is no slouch over the Gulfstream course, either. The 8-year-old gelding, who loves to hear his feet rattle, won the 2013 edition of the grade 2 Pan American here in the world-record time of 2:22.63 seconds for 12 furlongs. It has been a warm and sunny winter in south Florida, which should have the turf to his liking.

Four others are in with solid chances: Taghleeb (#1), who has won two stakes since claimed by Mike Maker last summer; Danish Dynaformer (#4), freshened since a runner-up finish in the Red Smith Handicap (G3T); Mr Maybe (#10), the beaten favorite in last year's Mac Diarmida (G2T) in one prior local appearance for newly minted Eclipse Award winner Chad Brown; and Sadler's Joy (#11), a Kitten's Joy   colt who makes his stakes debut for Albertrani after three straight wins.

A - 6, 7, 10

B - 1, 4, 11

La Prevoyante (race 10, 4:14 ET)

Another dozen go in the La Prevoyante (G3T), and California Chrome isn't the only well-fancied runner marooned in post 12 on this card. Facing a similar situation is Suffused (#12), the 3-1 favorite on the morning line, who will have to work out a trip with Jose Ortiz in this three-turn test of stamina.

Suffused, a Juddmonte Farms homebred who came to hand through the second half of her 4-year-old season for Bill Mott, has Arles (#7) as her main opponent, as was the case at Saratoga Race Course last summer when they finished one-two in the Glens Falls (G3T). The margin was less than a length that day, and it might have been even closer had Arles' rider not lost the whip.

A - 7, 12

B - (none)

Poseidon Handicap (race 5, 1:30 ET)

If nothing else, this 1 1/8-mile race provides a handy yardstick for  figure-makers trying to gauge the running time of the Pegasus some four hours later.

The principal protagonists on paper seem like Charles Town Classic (G2) winners Stanford (2016) and Imperative (2014).

Stanford (#4) had an ideal setup strolling on the lead in the Harlan's Holiday (G3) earlier at the meet, but his kind of tactical speed often results in good trips, and he may get another one.

Imperative (#3) was caught wide behind Stanford around Charles Town's hairpin turns last year, and while his subsequent form has been spotty at best, this is his first start for new connections and he has run well previously when fresh.

I suppose the others with some kind of chance are Cherry Wine (#5), a deep, deep closer who has had throat surgery since finishing last in an optional claimer last November; and Madefromlucky (#6), a dual grade 2 winner in 2015 who was blanked from four starts last year.

A - 4

B - 3

C - 5, 6